1. CEESA Coherent Energy and Environmental System Analysis Senior Research Specialist Poul Erik Morthorst Risø National Laboratory The Technical University of Denmark

2. Development of Long Term Sustainable Energy System Scenarios

3. Organisation I Funded by the Strategic Research Council as a 4 year project Partners:

4. Organisation II Subdivided into 5 Work Packages WP 1: Long term sustainable energy system scenarios – Definition and Development WP2 : Renewable Energy in Transportation, especially biomass WP3: The Future Electric Power System – Centralized and/or Decentralized Solutions WP4: Market Development and Public Regulation – instruments to implement the sustainable scenarios WP5: Environmental Assessment of Energy Scenarios - LCA

5. WP-interactions Development of Preliminary Scenarios Preliminary LCA-screening

6. WP-interactions Final Scenarios including LCA-analyses

7. 100% Renewable Scenarios

8. Three scenarios Mostly Wind Mostly Biomass High Demand

9. Scenarios developed for the Danish association of Engineers

11. Main Issues How do we implement and regulate the large amounts of wind energy in the energy system? How do we achieve a considerable amount of energy Conservation? Is there a conflict between large savings in room heating and utilisation of the district heating and natural gas networks? Will we have a centralised or a decentralised power system structure in the future? New fuels have to be introduced in transportation

12. Wind power in Western Denmark

13. Wind Power covered approx. 44% of Power consumption in January in Western Denmark

14. Wind power in Western Denmark Wind Power covered approx. 44% of Power consumption in January in Western Denmark … and 36% on average in Denmark

15. Impact on Spot Price

16. Main Issues How do we implement and regulate the large amounts of wind energy in the energy system? How do we achieve a considerable amount of energy Conservation? Is there a conflict between large savings in room heating and utilisation of the district heating and natural gas networks? Will we have a centralised or a decentralised power system structure in the future? New fuels have to be introduced in transportation