1. 1 AISC Workshop May 16-18, 2006 Lesson Learned from CCSP 1.1: Temperature Trends in the Atmosphere Lesson Learned from CCSP 1.1 Temperature Trends in the Atmosphere OUTLINE Reducing Structural ErrorReducing Structural Error –Better use of existing data –Multiple analysis teams –Multiple observing systems Data HomogeneityData Homogeneity –GCOS principles –Benchmark or Reference Observing Systems –Homogeneous reanalysis (including model simulations) Consistency among variablesConsistency among variables –Developing data sets for related variables –Consistency of changes and variations of related variables UnderstandingUnderstanding –Comparisons of model simulations and observations –Clarify forcing uncertainties versus model uncertainties

2. CCSP 1.1 Recommendation for Improved Climate Data Records and Understanding of Climate COA Program Description 2

3. 3 AISC Workshop May 16-18, 2006 Lesson Learned from CCSP 1.1: Temperature Trends in the Atmosphere Reducing Structural Error –Better use of existing data –Multiple analysis teams –Multiple observing systems

4. 4 AISC Workshop May 16-18, 2006 Lesson Learned from CCSP 1.1: Temperature Trends in the Atmosphere Reducing Structural Error New Sonde data sets (Free et. al. and Thorne et. al.) New version (Mears & Wentz) Corrected Data Set (Christy & Spencer) Addressed stratospheric influence in derivation of tropospheric temperature (Fu et. al.) New data set (Vinnikov et. al.) - 20 New model simulations with many ensemble numbers prepared for IPCC (2007)

5. 5 AISC Workshop May 16-18, 2006 Lesson Learned from CCSP 1.1: Temperature Trends in the Atmosphere R=RSS A=UAH U=HadAT2 M=UMd P=RATPAC N=NOAA T 4 : Lower Stratosphere T 2 : Mid Troposphere to Lower Stratosphere T 2LT : Lower Troposphere T S : Surface Temperature Trends for 1979-2004 ( o C/decade) by Latitude TROPICS Reducing Structural Error

6. 6 AISC Workshop May 16-18, 2006 Lesson Learned from CCSP 1.1: Temperature Trends in the Atmosphere Ship-Buoy SST Zonal Biases Buoy SSTs increase with time Significant buoy obs 1994 to present Care required to first correct in situ biases then satellite biases Annual Ship - Buoy Bias Reducing Structural Error

7. 7 AISC Workshop May 16-18, 2006 Lesson Learned from CCSP 1.1: Temperature Trends in the Atmosphere Data Homogeneity –GCOS principles –Benchmark or Reference Observing Systems –Homogeneous reanalysis (including model simulations)

8. 8 AISC Workshop May 16-18, 2006 Lesson Learned from CCSP 1.1: Temperature Trends in the Atmosphere Adherence to Ten Principles for satellite observations 1. Constant diurnal cycle sampling 2. Suitable overlaps 3. Continuity 4. Pre-launch calibration 5. On-board calibration The international framework for sharing data is vital. 6. Operational production 7. Data Systems 8. Maintain baseline instruments 9. Complementary in-situ 10. Identify random and time- dependent errors Climate Observing System Data Homogeneity

9. 9 AISC Workshop May 16-18, 2006 Lesson Learned from CCSP 1.1: Temperature Trends in the Atmosphere Adherence to Ten Principles for surface-based observations 1. Management of Network Change 2. Parallel Testing 3. Metadata 4. Data Quality and Continuity 5. Environmental Assessments The international framework for sharing data is vital. 6. Historical Significance 7. Complementary Data 8. Climate Requirements 9. Continuity of Purpose 10. Data and Metadata Access Climate Observing System Data Homogeneity

10. Baseline Surface Reference Networks (BSRN) Proposed SEBN Current Data Homogeneity 10

11. 11 AISC Workshop May 16-18, 2006 Lesson Learned from CCSP 1.1: Temperature Trends in the Atmosphere Validation of NASA EOS satellite-based downwelling infrared and solar estimates (from NASA/CAVE web site) Data Homogeneity Baseline Surface Reference Networks (BSRN)

12. 12 AISC Workshop May 16-18, 2006 Lesson Learned from CCSP 1.1: Temperature Trends in the Atmosphere Data Homogeneity For clear sky conditions, 17 Jan. 2003 Baseline Surface Reference Networks (BSRN) Example calibration issue

13. 13 AISC Workshop May 16-18, 2006 Lesson Learned from CCSP 1.1: Temperature Trends in the Atmosphere Deploying and maintaining 89 Ocean Reference Stations (42 now in service) NOAA Contributions Future NOAA Chilean Tsunami Buoy being Deployed during a U.S. Climate mission Data Homogeneity Reference Networks 13

14. 14 AISC Workshop May 16-18, 2006 Lesson Learned from CCSP 1.1: Temperature Trends in the Atmosphere U.S. Climate Reference Network Asheville, NC Horticultural Crops Res. Ctr. Data Homogeneity

15. 15 AISC Workshop May 16-18, 2006 Lesson Learned from CCSP 1.1: Temperature Trends in the Atmosphere USCRN Network May, 2006 U.S. Climate Reference Network 15

16. 16 AISC Workshop May 16-18, 2006 Lesson Learned from CCSP 1.1: Temperature Trends in the Atmosphere USCRN Stations Outside of Contiguous Lower - 48 States Currently deployed: Alaska – 4 (Barrow, Fairbanks, Sitka, St. Paul) Hawaii - 2 (Mauna Loa & Waiakea, Big Island) Pending deployment: America Samoa (Sept 2006) USCRN Alaska Locations Single sites installed at end FY 05 (2): Pt. Barrow & Fairbanks GCOS single sites installed: FY 05 (2): Sitka & St. Paul Island USCRN Hawaiian Locations Single sites installed at end FY 05 (2): Mauna Loa Summit, and Waiakea

17. Daily historic Troposphere reanalysis from surface pressure observations Example: “post-Christmas Snowstorm” of Dec. 1947 (Arrows point to same 500 hPa features) Original 1947 Air Weather Service Analysis Reanalysis: Surface Pressure & Ensemble Filter Reanalysis: Full NCEP Assimilation System Data assimilation system using only sfc pressure data Could produce a reanalysis of daily extratropical circulation from the late 19th century to present. International Surface Pressure Data Bank 21,702 land and marine stations Data Homogeneity Reanalysis and Observed Simulation Experiments 17

18. 18 AISC Workshop May 16-18, 2006 Lesson Learned from CCSP 1.1: Temperature Trends in the Atmosphere Consistency Among Variables –Developing data sets for related variables –Consistency of changes and variations of related variables

19. 19 AISC Workshop May 16-18, 2006 Lesson Learned from CCSP 1.1: Temperature Trends in the Atmosphere 1958-2001 Trend: 0.45 mm/decade 1988-2001 Trend: 0.53 mm/decade (ERA-40) 0.51 mm/decade (SSMI) From Wentz (2005) Trends in Vapor from ERA-40 (Model) from SSMI (Satellite) Consistency Among Variables

20. 20 AISC Workshop May 16-18, 2006 Lesson Learned from CCSP 1.1: Temperature Trends in the Atmosphere Contributes to Annual Total Heavy Precip Days (>95 th percentile) Daily Intensity (Total Annual Precip / # of Days with Precip) Alexander et al. (2005) Consistency Among Variables

21. 21 AISC Workshop May 16-18, 2006 Lesson Learned from CCSP 1.1: Temperature Trends in the AtmosphereUnderstanding –Comparisons of model simulations and observations –Clarify forcing uncertainties versus model uncertainties

22. 22 AISC Workshop May 16-18, 2006 Lesson Learned from CCSP 1.1: Temperature Trends in the Atmosphere Observations Understanding The Relationships Between Tropical Temperature Changes at Earth’s Surface and in Two Different Layers of the Troposphere

23. Modeled and Observed Global- Average Temperature Trends Modeled and Observed Temperature Trends in the Tropics (20 o S-20 o N)Understanding 23

24. 24 AISC Workshop May 16-18, 2006 Lesson Learned from CCSP 1.1: Temperature Trends in the AtmosphereUnderstanding Display of upper-air in-situ data and NCEP North America Regional Reanalysis Model Analysis can improves both models and observations: Model background provide QC for observational records Observations can provide improvements to models Data Access to Models & Observations Intercomparison: Weather Models & Observational record

25. CCSP 1.1 Recommendation for Improved Climate Data Records and Understanding of Climate COA Program Description 25