1. New Funding for Ongoing Research at the FLONA Tapajos The USDA Forest Service Chief’s Emergency Fund has agreed to support ongoing research at the FLONA Tapajos Topics: –Carbon, Water, Energy Exchange –Above-Ground Net Primary Production –Nutrient Cycling

2. New Funding for Ongoing Research at the FLONA Tapajos Principal Investigators –Michael Keller, Raimundo Cosme de Oliveira Jr., Antonio Manzi, Humberto Rocha, Michael Goulden, Steve Wofsy, Plinio Camargo, Osvaldo Moraes, David Fitzjarrald

3. Synthesis Activities from LBA ECO Summary of Current Activities Michael Keller NASA LBA-ECO Project Scientist 17 th LBA SSC

4. LBA-ECO Synthesis Review of LBA-ECO Questions –Ready for Synthesis –Signs of progress –Unfinished business Books for Synthesis Phase III Scientific Activities Summary and Conclusions

5. Review of LBA-ECO Questions LC–Q1What are the rates and mechanisms of forest conversion to agricultural land uses, and what is the relative importance of these land uses? LC–Q2At what rate are converted lands abandoned to secondary forests; what is the fate of these converted lands, and what are the overall dynamic patterns of land conversion and abandonment? LC–Q3What is the area of forest that is affected by selective logging each year? How does the intensity of selective logging influence forest ecosystem function, thus altering forest regrowth and flammability? LC–Q4What are plausible scenarios for future land– cover change in Amazonia?

6. 2000 1999 Asner et al., Ecol. Apps. (2004) MC Unmixing with Landsat 7 ETM+ Imagery

7. 50 scene mosaic

8. Review of LBA-ECO Questions CD–Q1What is the (climatically driven) seasonal and interannual variability of the CO 2 flux between the atmosphere and different land cover/use types? CD–Q2How do biological processes such as mortality and recruitment or succession following land use change influence the net annual C balance for different land–cover/land use types? CD–Q3What are the relative contributions of fluxes from natural and disturbed ecosystems to the net Amazonia–wide flux? This question can be approached through a number of subsidiary questions: –Contribution from BARCA

9. Keller et al. 2004 Ecological Applications Carbon Flux: Seasonality

10. Review of LBA-ECO Questions CD–Q3aHow do pools and fluxes of C and nutrients (in soils) of pasture/cropland change over time and what factors determine C gain or loss? CD–Q3bHow does selective logging change the storage and cycling of C in forests? CD–Q3cWhat factors (biologically mediated, land–use history, soil properties, etc.) control the rate of C sequestration in biomass and soils of re-growing forest? CD–Q3dWhat portion of the Amazonia–wide C flux is from fire? How do ecosystems recover from fire? What are the relations between land management and fire occurrence/frequency?

11. Davidson et al. Ecol. Appl. 2004 Progress: Secondary Re-Growth

12. Review of LBA-ECO Questions ND–Q1How do stocks, cycling rates and budgets of carbon and important elements N, P, K, Ca, Mg, and Al change under different land covers and land uses? ND–Q2Are nutrients major factors that control the rates of re– growth and carbon accumulation in abandoned pastures and re– growing secondary forests? ND-Q3. What are the processes and consequences of atmospheric horizontal transport of nutrients (wind) on the nutrient stocks and cycles of ecosystems within the Amazon basin at various spatial and temporal scales? E.g., -Saharan dust inputs -Losses and redistribution due to fire - Links between physical climate models and nutrient cycling?

13. Review of LBA-ECO Questions ND-Q4. How do changes in land-use and climate alter the stocks, processes and fluxes of dissolved and particulate organic matter, nutrients, and trace gases from the uplands across the riparian zones and floodplains and down the channels of river corridors? ‑ How will the composition and quantity of nutrients and organic matter entering and being processed within streams be altered under different land-use change scenarios? ‑ Are there unique signatures that can be traced downstream? ‑ To what extent do intact riparian zones buffer streams against changes due to anthropogenic activities in surrounding uplands? ND-Q5. What is the importance of periodically “wet” environments (from moist soils to standing and flowing waters) for the land and atmospheric balances of nutrients, CO 2, trace gases, and water and energy on multiple scales?

14. Progress: Methane Emission from the Amazon Basin Final estimates suggest that the Amazon Basin wetlands may produce as much as 20% of the natural global source of methane. This estimate provides the first rigorous analysis of errors from both area estimates, flux estimates, and inter- annual variability. (Melack et al. Global Change Biology, 10: 530-544, 2004) Mainstem Emissions Interannual Variability Lowland Amazon Basin (<500 m asl) (5.19 million km 2 ) Methane Emission 22 Tg C y -1 Central Amazon Basin (1.77 million km 2 ) Methane Emission 6.8 + 1.3 Tg C y -1 Low Mid High

15. Review of LBA-ECO Questions TG ‑ Q1. How are fluxes of trace gases and aerosols between ecosystems (both upland & wetland) and the atmosphere of Amazonia affected by land cover and land use change? TG ‑ Q2. What is the (climatically driven) seasonal and inter ‑ annual variability of trace gas and aerosol fluxes between the atmosphere and different land use/land cover types? TG ‑ Q3. Are losses and gains of carbon from Amazonian ecosystems in forms other than CO 2 (e.g. CO, CH 4, VOC, organic aerosol) of sufficient magnitude to influence ecosystem carbon balance?

16. Books for Synthesis: An Activity of LBA-ECO Why books? –Editorial control of content –Format and content more flexible than journal articles –Induce synthetic work that would not occur otherwise Why Not? –Plenty of primary work still needs to get published –Books have a limited audience –Editing and producing books is hard work

17. Books for Synthesis: An Activity of LBA-ECO We are holding discussions with Island Press, publisher of the SCOPE volumes –Not for profit –Willing to provide layouts for volumes to be used for translation

18. Current Book Themes Under Development Agriculture and Pastoral Systems: Biogeochemistry Secondary Forests: Distribution and Productivity Fire in the Amazon: Human Interactions, Biogeochemical and Atmospheric Effects

19. Future Book Themes? Stream and Rivers Chemistry: Land Use Change Effects Forest Dynamics and Logging Amazon Region Carbon Dynamics (post- BARCA) Suggestions?

20. IGBP Book Series LBA Synthesis Volume 1: Physical Climate and Atmospheric Chemistry –LBA Themes: Atmospheric Chemistry, Physical Climate –Editors: Artaxo, C. Nobre, … LBA Synthesis Volume 2: Land Use and Land Cover Change and Biogeochemistry –LBA Themes: Biogeochemistry, Carbon Dynamics, Land Use and Land Cover Change, Hydrology and Surface Water Chemistry –Editors: Bustamante, Keller, Richey, Vieira*, …

21. Concluding Remarks (1) We must develop plausible scenarios for the future of Amazonia. Common shared scenarios would be critical for comparative modeling exercises considering future conditions. –Scenarios are not predictions!

22. Concluding Remarks (2) Synthesis Efforts Underway (LBA-ECO) –Agricultural Development –Secondary Forests –Fire: Occurrence, Effects, Causes, Control Future Directions for LBA Synthesis –Logging: Occurrence, Carbon Budgets –Stream and River Chemistry –Regional Carbon Dynamics