1. © 2003 Prentice Hall Business PublishingMacroeconomics, 3/eOlivier Blanchard Prepared by: Fernando Quijano and Yvonn Quijano 6 C H A P T E R The Medium Run

2. © 2003 Prentice Hall Business PublishingMacroeconomics, 3/e Olivier Blanchard A Tour of the Labor Market A Tour of the Labor Market 6-1  The noninstitutional civilian population are the number of people potentially available for civilian employment.  The civilian labor force is the sum of those either working or looking for work.  Those who are neither working nor looking for work are out of the labor force.  The participation rate is the ratio of the labor force to the noninstitutional civilian population.  The unemployment rate is the ratio of the unemployed to the labor force.

3. © 2003 Prentice Hall Business PublishingMacroeconomics, 3/e Olivier Blanchard A Tour of the Labor Market Population, Labor Force, Employment, and Unemployment in the United States (in millions), 2000

4. © 2003 Prentice Hall Business PublishingMacroeconomics, 3/e Olivier Blanchard The Large Flows of Workers  An unemployment rate may reflect two very different realities:  An active labor market, with many separations and many hires, or  A sclerotic, with few separations, few hires, and a stagnant unemployment pool.  The Current Population Survey (CPS) produces employment data, including the movements of workers.

5. © 2003 Prentice Hall Business PublishingMacroeconomics, 3/e Olivier Blanchard The Large Flows of Workers (1) The flows of workers in and out of employment are large (2) The flows in and out of unemployment are large in relation to the number of unemployed (3) There are also large flows in and out of the labor force, much of them directly to and from employment Average Monthly Flows Between Employment, Unemployment, and Nonparticipation in the United States, 1994-1999

6. © 2003 Prentice Hall Business PublishingMacroeconomics, 3/e Olivier Blanchard The Large Flows of Workers From the CPS data we conclude that: 1.The flows of workers in and out of employment are large. Separations consist of:  Quits, or workers leaving their jobs for a better alternative, and  Layoffs, which come from changes in employment levels across firms.

7. © 2003 Prentice Hall Business PublishingMacroeconomics, 3/e Olivier Blanchard The Large Flows of Workers From the CPS data we conclude that: 2.The flows in and out of unemployment are large in relation to the number of unemployed.  The average duration of unemployment is about three months.

8. © 2003 Prentice Hall Business PublishingMacroeconomics, 3/e Olivier Blanchard The Large Flows of Workers From the CPS data we conclude that: 3.There are large flows in and out of the labor force, much of them directly to and from employment.  Discouraged workers are classified as “out of the labor force,” but they may take a job if they find it.  The nonemployment rate is the ratio of population minus employment to population.

9. © 2003 Prentice Hall Business PublishingMacroeconomics, 3/e Olivier Blanchard Movements in Unemployment  Fluctuations in the aggregate unemployment rate affect:  The welfare of individual workers  Wages 6-2  Higher unemployment affects workers:  Through a decrease in hires—more difficult to find jobs.  Through higher layoffs—higher risk of losing their jobs.

10. © 2003 Prentice Hall Business PublishingMacroeconomics, 3/e Olivier Blanchard Movements in Unemployment Since 1948, the average yearly U.S. unemployment rate has fluctuated between 3 and 10%. Movements in the U.S. Unemployment Rate, 1948-2000

11. © 2003 Prentice Hall Business PublishingMacroeconomics, 3/e Olivier Blanchard Movements in Unemployment When unemployment is high, the proportion of unemployed finding jobs is low. Note, the scale on the right is an inverse scale. The Unemployment Rate and the Proportion of Unemployed Finding Jobs, 1968- 1999

12. © 2003 Prentice Hall Business PublishingMacroeconomics, 3/e Olivier Blanchard Movements in Unemployment The Unemployment Rate and the Monthly Separation Rate from Employment, 1968- 1999 When unemployment is high, a higher proportion of workers lose their jobs.

13. © 2003 Prentice Hall Business PublishingMacroeconomics, 3/e Olivier Blanchard Wage Determination  Collective bargaining is bargaining between firms and unions. 6-3  Common forces at work in the determination of wages include:  A tendency for the wage to exceed the reservation wage, or the wage that make them indifferent between working or becoming unemployed.  Dependency of wages on labor-market conditions.

14. © 2003 Prentice Hall Business PublishingMacroeconomics, 3/e Olivier Blanchard Bargaining  How much bargaining power a worker has depends on: 1. How costly it would be for the firm to replace him—the nature of the job. 2. How hard it would be for him to find another job— labor market conditions.

15. © 2003 Prentice Hall Business PublishingMacroeconomics, 3/e Olivier Blanchard Efficiency Wages  Efficiency wage theories are theories that link the productivity or the efficiency of workers to the wage they are paid.  These theories also suggest that wages depend on both the nature of the job and on labor-market conditions.

16. © 2003 Prentice Hall Business PublishingMacroeconomics, 3/e Olivier Blanchard Wages, Prices, and Unemployment  The aggregate nominal wage, W, depends on three factors: 1. The expected price level, P e 2. The unemployment rate, u 3. A catchall variable, z, that catches all other variables that may affect the outcome of wage setting.

17. © 2003 Prentice Hall Business PublishingMacroeconomics, 3/e Olivier Blanchard Wages, Prices, and Unemployment 1. Both workers and firms care about real wages (W/P), not nominal wages (W). 2. Higher unemployment weakens workers’ bargaining power, forcing them to accept lower wages. 3. Among other factors that affect wages is unemployment insurance—the payment of unemployment benefits to workers who lose their jobs. Higher unemployment insurance allows workers to hold out for higher wages. Minimum wages and employment protection are other factors.

18. © 2003 Prentice Hall Business PublishingMacroeconomics, 3/e Olivier Blanchard Price Determination  The production function is the relation between the inputs used in production and the quantity of output produced.  Assuming that firms produce goods using only labor, the production function can be written as: 6-4 Y = output N = employment A = labor productivity, or output per worker  Further, assuming that one worker produces one unit of output—so that A = 1, then, the production function becomes:

19. © 2003 Prentice Hall Business PublishingMacroeconomics, 3/e Olivier Blanchard Price Determination  Firms set their price according to: The term  is the markup of the price over the cost of production. If all markets were perfectly competitive,  = 0, and P = W.

20. © 2003 Prentice Hall Business PublishingMacroeconomics, 3/e Olivier Blanchard The Natural Rate of Unemployment  This section looks at the implications of wage and price determination for unemployment.  We assume that P e = P, and that nominal wages depends on the actual price level, P, rather than on the expected price level, P e.  Wage setting and price setting determine the equilibrium rate of unemployment. 6-5

21. © 2003 Prentice Hall Business PublishingMacroeconomics, 3/e Olivier Blanchard The Wage-Setting Relation  Earlier, we stated that the nominal wage rate was determined as follows:  Now, since P e = P, then:  Dividing both sides by P, then: The wage-setting relation

22. © 2003 Prentice Hall Business PublishingMacroeconomics, 3/e Olivier Blanchard The Price-Setting Relation  The price-determination equation is:  If we divide both sides by W, we get:  To state this equation in terms of the wage rate, we invert both sides: The price-setting relation

23. © 2003 Prentice Hall Business PublishingMacroeconomics, 3/e Olivier Blanchard The Wage-Setting Relation The real wage chosen in wage setting is a decreasing function of the unemployment rate. The real wage implied by the price setting is constant, independent of the unemployment rate. The Wage-Setting Relation, the Price-Setting Relation, and the Natural Rate of Unemployment

24. © 2003 Prentice Hall Business PublishingMacroeconomics, 3/e Olivier Blanchard Equilibrium Real Wages and Unemployment The natural rate of unemployment is the unemployment rate such that the real wage chosen in wage setting is equal to the real wage implied by price setting. The Wage-Setting Relation, the Price-Setting Relation, and the Natural Rate of Unemployment

25. © 2003 Prentice Hall Business PublishingMacroeconomics, 3/e Olivier Blanchard Equilibrium Real Wages and Unemployment Eliminating W/P from the wage-setting and the price- setting relations, we can obtain the equilibrium unemployment rate, or natural rate of unemployment, u n :

26. © 2003 Prentice Hall Business PublishingMacroeconomics, 3/e Olivier Blanchard Equilibrium Real Wages and Unemployment An increase in unemployment benefits leads to an increase in the natural rate of unemployment. Unemployment Benefits and the Natural Rate of Unemployment

27. © 2003 Prentice Hall Business PublishingMacroeconomics, 3/e Olivier Blanchard Equilibrium Real Wages and Unemployment An increase in markups decreases the real wage, and leads to an increase in the natural rate of unemployment. Markups and the Natural Rate of Unemployment

28. © 2003 Prentice Hall Business PublishingMacroeconomics, 3/e Olivier Blanchard The Structural Rate of Unemployment  Because the equilibrium rate of unemployment reflects the structure of the economy, a better name for the natural rate of unemployment is the structural rate of unemployment.

29. © 2003 Prentice Hall Business PublishingMacroeconomics, 3/e Olivier Blanchard From Unemployment to Employment  Associated with the natural rate of unemployment is a natural level of employment.  Employment in terms of the labor force and the unemployment rate equals:  The natural level of employment, N n, is given by:

30. © 2003 Prentice Hall Business PublishingMacroeconomics, 3/e Olivier Blanchard From Employment to Output  Associated with the natural level of employment is a natural level of output, (and since Y=N, then,)  The natural level of output satisfies the following:  In words, the natural level of output is such that, at the associated rate of unemployment, the real wage chosen in wage setting is equal to the real wage implied by price setting.,

31. © 2003 Prentice Hall Business PublishingMacroeconomics, 3/e Olivier Blanchard Key Terms  noninstitutionalized civilian population, noninstitutionalized civilian population, noninstitutionalized civilian population,  labor force; out of the labor force, labor force; out of the labor force, labor force; out of the labor force,  participation rate, participation rate, participation rate,  unemployment rate, unemployment rate, unemployment rate,  separations, hires, separations, hires, separations, hires,  Current Population Survey (CPS), Current Population Survey (CPS), Current Population Survey (CPS),  quits, layoffs, quits, layoffs, quits, layoffs,  duration of unemployment, duration of unemployment, duration of unemployment,  discouraged workers, discouraged workers, discouraged workers,  nonemployment rate, nonemployment rate, nonemployment rate,  collective bargaining, collective bargaining, collective bargaining,  reservation wage, reservation wage, reservation wage,  bargaining power, bargaining power, bargaining power,  efficiency wage theories, efficiency wage theories, efficiency wage theories,  unemployment insurance, unemployment insurance, unemployment insurance,  production function, production function, production function,  labor productivity, labor productivity, labor productivity,  markup, markup,  wage-setting relation, wage-setting relation, wage-setting relation,  price-setting relation, price-setting relation, price-setting relation,  natural rate of unemployment, natural rate of unemployment, natural rate of unemployment,  structural rate of unemployment, structural rate of unemployment, structural rate of unemployment,  natural level of employment, natural level of employment, natural level of employment,  natural level of output, natural level of output, natural level of output,