1. Canada and the Road to Paris
Lisa (Elisabeth) DeMarco
Zizzo Allan DeMarco LLP

2. Overview The road travelled: The road ahead
Changing international and NA context
The relevant energy context
The road ahead
Behind and inside the October draft Paris text
Canada at the COP and future CMAs
The critical role of “infranationals”

3. Changing International Context
Science: IPCC 5th Assessment Report
Extreme Weather
G77, US-China, and TPP
Carbon Pricing
Renewables
Energy:
coal
oil
pipelines
social license

4. Carbon Pricing - International
Map from World Bank Group, State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2015 at 11. Have also excerpted just North America in next slide – keep whichever you prefer.
World Bank Group, State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2015.

5. Canadian GHG Emissions from Energy Production
Energy Production 2013 GHG Emissions
GHG Category
Emissions (MT CO2e)
Stationary combustion sources
Public electricity and heat production 88
Petroleum refining industries 18
Mining and upstream 94
Manufacturing industries 46
Construction 1
Commercial & institutional 29
Residential
Agriculture & forestry 4
Total Stationary Sources
325
Transport
204
Fugitive sources 59
TOTAL
588
NTD – Page on carbon pricing. See if you can find a better map of just North America.
Environment Canada, National Inventory Report: Greenhouse Gas Sources and Sinks in Canada,

6. Canadian and US GHG Emissions by Sector
Canadian Emissions by sector
U.S. GHG Emissions by Sector
NTD – Page on carbon pricing. See if you can find a better map of just North America.
Total: 6,673 MT CO2e
Environment Canada, National Inventory Report: Greenhouse Gas Sources and Sinks in Canada,
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks:

7. The Road ahead for Canada, Paris and CMA 1?
The Canadian dilemma – perception, reality, credibility
Splinter of the Umbrella Group
The critical role of sub/infra nationals
ON, QC, CA (WCI) and BC
CA in WCI and US CPP(?)
The cost
Key issues to follow in Paris

8. The Canadian Dilemma
Annual emissions from the oil sands (55 MT CO2e in 2014) are less than the combined annual GHG emissions of the top three highest-emitting coal-fired power plants in the USA.
US total: 6673 MT; Target: 26-28% below 2005 by 2025
Canada total: 726 MT; Target: 30% below 2005 by 2030
Mexico total: 748 (503); Target: 25% below BAU by 2030
China total: 9019; Target: 60-65% below 2005 by 2030
Map is from Govt of Canada. Couldn’t find data to back up the two coal-fired power plants in GA claim – but the three worst power plants in the USA emit more than the oil sands.
Government of Canada, Oil Sands: A strategic resource for Canada, North America and the global market (2013).
United States Environmental Protection Agency, Facility Level Information on Greenhouse Gases Tool.

9. Carbon Pricing - North America
*US Clean Power Plan, Final Rule Aug *
Map from World Bank Group, State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2015 at 11.
World Bank Group, State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2015, as modified by ZAD LLP to reflect CPP

10. Electricity Sector Emissions Intensity
Based on best available data reflecting 2012 for Canada (Environment Canada) and 2011 for US states (U.S. Energy Information Administration).

11. Electricity Prices, Canada and US
Hydro Quebec, Rate Comparison for Rates Effective April 1, 2014.
U.S. Energy Information Administration (YTD October 2014). Prices converted at an exchange rate of $0.85 USD = $1 CAD.

12. Key Issues in Paris Legally binding nature: Treatment of:
“contribution” or “commitment”
NAPs
Third party review and ongoing NDCs (every 5 years?)
Treatment of:
Developing countries – common but differentiated?
Fossil subsidies
Timing and degree target
Role of markets