1. WRAP Regional Modeling Center, Modeling Forum-AoH Meeting, San Diego, CA Nov 26, 2006 Overview of Other RPO Modeling Work Ralph Morris ENVIRON International Corporation Joint Modeling Forum and Attribution of Haze Workgroup Meeting San Diego, California November 2, 2006

2. WRAP Regional Modeling Center, Modeling Forum-AoH Meeting, San Diego, CA Nov 26, 2006 Other RPO Modeling CENRAP –ENVIRON and UCR MRPO –LADCO w/ assistance from contractors VISTAS –ENVIRON, UCR and Alpine MANE-VU –NESCAUM, OTC, MARAMA, States

3. WRAP Regional Modeling Center, Modeling Forum-AoH Meeting, San Diego, CA Nov 26, 2006 CENRAP Update 2002 Actual Base Case –MPE CMAQ and CAMx @ 36 km 2002 Typical Base Case (Base F latest) 2018 Base E2 Emissions and CMAQ –Working on 2018 Base F –Preliminary 2018 CAMx/PSAT runs Identify contributions of International Transport How to work into Reasonable Progress 2018 Base E2 Visibility Projections –Comparisons with WRAP, MRPO and VISTAS 2018 Base F visibility projections ongoing –Ready in about 4 weeks

4. WRAP Regional Modeling Center, Modeling Forum-AoH Meeting, San Diego, CA Nov 26, 2006 Treatment of International Transport Modeled Uniform Rate of Progress (URP) test compares against 2018 Goal from Glide Slope 2000- 2004 Baseline to 2064 Natural Conditions –Modeled 2018 visibility projection includes contributions from International Transport and Natural Sources that are not completely accounted for in 2064 Natural Conditions –Regional Haze Rule goal is no man-made visibility impairment in 2064 For demonstrating Reasonable Progress does this just apply to US man-made (controllable) sources? CENRAP Visibility Projections found Class I areas on US international border fail to meet URP goal –How to treat International Transport in modeled URP test?

5. WRAP Regional Modeling Center, Modeling Forum-AoH Meeting, San Diego, CA Nov 26, 2006 How to Treat International Transport in Reasonable Progress Approach 1: Include International Transport with the 2064 Natural Conditions Goal –Can use different estimates of International Transport (GEOS-CHEM, PSAT, etc.) –Simple to implement –Keeps Glide Slope in deciview –Inconsistent with Regional Haze Rule 2064 Natural Conditions goal? –Not liked by FLMs

6. WRAP Regional Modeling Center, Modeling Forum-AoH Meeting, San Diego, CA Nov 26, 2006 How to Treat International Transport in Reasonable Progress Approach 2: Define 2064 goal as Elimination of U.S. Anthropogenic Emissions Contribution to Visibility Impairment –Interpretation of the “no man-made impairment” as U.S. man-made impairment –Need approach to track U.S. anthropogenic contribution –2064 goal is zero –Must use Extinction (Mm -1 ) to calculate

7. WRAP Regional Modeling Center, Modeling Forum-AoH Meeting, San Diego, CA Nov 26, 2006 Intl Transport & Reasonable Progress Approach 3: Adjust modeled 2018 visibility projection to account for International Transport (FLM suggestion) –Consistent with Regional Haze Rule –How and what to do? (3A) Assume International Transport component is reduced same amount as U.S. anthropogenic emissions component –If International Transport is above and beyond Natural Conditions then this seems reasonable –Can keep deciview –Promotes fairness across States with Class I areas in center versus border of U.S. (3B) Other???

8. WRAP Regional Modeling Center, Modeling Forum-AoH Meeting, San Diego, CA Nov 26, 2006 CENRAP PM Source Apportionment PM Source Apportionment Technology (PSAT) 2018 Base D CAMx Database State Level Geographic Regions –CENRAP and Adjacent States Track Three Families –SO4; NO3 & Primary PM [No SOA or Hg] Use standard model output to split SOA into anthropogenic and biogenic SOA (SOA_A & SOA_B) –No geographic source apportionment for SOA

9. WRAP Regional Modeling Center, Modeling Forum-AoH Meeting, San Diego, CA Nov 26, 2006 22 Separate States; rest of West and East US; Canada; Mexico GulfMex ; IC; & BC

10. WRAP Regional Modeling Center, Modeling Forum-AoH Meeting, San Diego, CA Nov 26, 2006 Geographic PSAT 2018 Base D Emissions Scenario Class I areas for W20% Days Convert to Extinction (B ext ) and determine State’s contribution to Visibility Impairment on Worst 20% –Can also partition by RPO and split International vs. U.S. Sources –Only geographic Source Apportionment at this time Can not Separate Natural from Anthropogenic U.S. (except for SOA_B)

11. WRAP Regional Modeling Center, Modeling Forum-AoH Meeting, San Diego, CA Nov 26, 2006  SOA_B & SOA_A All Sources  BCs (Global Transport)  Mexico  CENRAP  VISTAS + MANE-VU Wichita Mountains, Oklahoma Visibility Extinction (Mm -1 ) Source Apportionment for the Worst 20% Days 70

12. WRAP Regional Modeling Center, Modeling Forum-AoH Meeting, San Diego, CA Nov 26, 2006 Big Bend National Park, Texas Visibility Extinction Apportionment Worst 20% Days  SOA_B & SOA_A All Sources  BCs (Global Transport)  Mexico  CENRAP States (Texas largest) ~60% of visibility extinction on average of Worst 20% Days due to international transport

13. WRAP Regional Modeling Center, Modeling Forum-AoH Meeting, San Diego, CA Nov 26, 2006 Wichita Mtns Oklahoma 22% due to non-US Anthro Sources Bext

14. WRAP Regional Modeling Center, Modeling Forum-AoH Meeting, San Diego, CA Nov 26, 2006 24% due to non-US Sources BSO4

15. WRAP Regional Modeling Center, Modeling Forum-AoH Meeting, San Diego, CA Nov 26, 2006 13% due to non-US Sources BNO3

16. WRAP Regional Modeling Center, Modeling Forum-AoH Meeting, San Diego, CA Nov 26, 2006 International Transport Methods Use PM Source Apportionment Technology (PSAT) to separately track contributions due to International Transport –Initial results for 2018 Base D Zero-Out GEOS-CHEM global chemistry model (eliminate U.S. sources or eliminate International sources) –Initial results from EPRI study with Harvard Two “independent” approaches for estimating contributions of International Transport to PM concentrations at Class I areas. –How do PSAT and GEOS-CHEM results compare?

17. WRAP Regional Modeling Center, Modeling Forum-AoH Meeting, San Diego, CA Nov 26, 2006 Sulfate (SO4) Annual Average International Transport by CAMx/PSAT and GEOS-CHEM models Excellent to Good Agreement of Two Methods Not truly “independent” evaluation since CAMx/PSAT runs used GEOS-CHEM BCs, but results encouraging CAMx/PSAT GEOS-CHEM

18. WRAP Regional Modeling Center, Modeling Forum-AoH Meeting, San Diego, CA Nov 26, 2006 Organic Carbon Mass (OCM) Annual Average International Transport by CAMx/PSAT and GEOS-CHEM models Reasonably Good Agreement of Two Methods, As much as a Factor of Two Different (LYBR), but most fairly close Larger differences in OCM. CAMx/PSAT includes OCM from Biogenic Sources so expected to be higher, but frequently lower? CAMx/PSAT GEOS-CHEM

19. WRAP Regional Modeling Center, Modeling Forum-AoH Meeting, San Diego, CA Nov 26, 2006 Elemental Carbon (EC) Annual Average International Transport by CAMx/PSAT and GEOS-CHEM models Differences in fires may be affecting results. Large Quebec fires in 2002 affect CAMx/PSAT. Mex fires in GEOS- CHEM? CAMx/PSAT GEOS-CHEM

20. WRAP Regional Modeling Center, Modeling Forum-AoH Meeting, San Diego, CA Nov 26, 2006 Accounting for International Transport Run PSAT for 2002 and 2018 separating controllable and uncontrollable (or US vs. International Transport) components –Approach 1: Add “International Transport” component to Natural Conditions for 2064 goal and redefine 2018 URP goal from 2000-2004 Baseline to new 2064 goal (in deciviews) –Approach 2: Redefine URP goal based on Controllable haze only. 2064 endpoint would be zero (no man-made impairment) Examples of these approaches using current 2018 PSAT run follows –International Transport = Uncontrollable = Mex+Can+BCs+SOA_B

21. WRAP Regional Modeling Center, Modeling Forum-AoH Meeting, San Diego, CA Nov 26, 2006 Big Bend: Standard URP Calculation = 31% of URP goal

22. WRAP Regional Modeling Center, Modeling Forum-AoH Meeting, San Diego, CA Nov 26, 2006 Big Bend: Approach 1 IntlTrans in 2064 Natural Conditions = 62%

23. WRAP Regional Modeling Center, Modeling Forum-AoH Meeting, San Diego, CA Nov 26, 2006 Big Bend: Approach 2 URP Based on Controllable Haze = 31%

24. WRAP Regional Modeling Center, Modeling Forum-AoH Meeting, San Diego, CA Nov 26, 2006 Big Bend Example Standard URP = 31% Intl Trans in 2064= 62% Controllable URP= 31% (???) –Could not do this correctly since only had geographic PSAT for 2018 and natural emissions were included in US portion Also need 2002 source apportionment CENRAP intends to correct this with Base F modeling

25. WRAP Regional Modeling Center, Modeling Forum-AoH Meeting, San Diego, CA Nov 26, 2006 CENRAP PSAT Next Steps International Transport and Natural Conditions Analysis combined with Control Strategy Design Analysis –Source Regions: CENRAP States and Nearby WRAP, MRPO and VISTAS States –Source Categories: EGU, Non-EGU Point, On- Road Mobile; Off-Road Mobile; Natural Emissions (Biogenics, Wildfires, Non-Ag WBD); Remaining Anthropogenic (e.g., area, Ag WBD) –2002 and 2018 Base Case emissions

26. WRAP Regional Modeling Center, Modeling Forum-AoH Meeting, San Diego, CA Nov 26, 2006 CENRAP PSAT Source Regions

27. WRAP Regional Modeling Center, Modeling Forum-AoH Meeting, San Diego, CA Nov 26, 2006 Midwest RPO Modeling MM5 Meteorology –2001, 2002, 2003 36-km for regional haze & PM 2.5 –2002 12-km for 8-hour ozone EMS Emissions (Base K) –Starting to Migrate to CONCEPT CAMx Air Quality Model –CMAQ may be used for corroborative analysis –Update model for SOA treatment –Using PSAT and OSAT Aggressive Movement to 2005 Modeling Year –Driven by 8-hour ozone and PM25 issues

28. WRAP Regional Modeling Center, Modeling Forum-AoH Meeting, San Diego, CA Nov 26, 2006 Midwest RPO SOA Updates Update Biogenic Emissions Model to MEGAN and Generate all SOA precursor Species –E.g., sesquiterpenes Update CAMx SOA Module –Treat new SOA precursors –Separate emissions for SOA species from gas-phase chemistry species –Slightly different than VISTAS SOAmods update that is plug and play with current biogenic emissions Considering directly emit Condensable Gases (CG) from mobile sources

29. WRAP Regional Modeling Center, Modeling Forum-AoH Meeting, San Diego, CA Nov 26, 2006 Midwest RPO Controls Need to address 8-hr ozone and PM2.5 as well as regional haze BART for non-EGUs Beyond CAIR scenario for EGUs Fuel scenarios for urban ozone/PM2.5 Combined with Northeast to look at regional diesel retrofit controls

30. WRAP Regional Modeling Center, Modeling Forum-AoH Meeting, San Diego, CA Nov 26, 2006 VISTAS Modeling 2002 36/12 km MM5 SMOKE 36/12 km CMAQ 2002 36/12 km –Looked at CAMx early on but dropped due to resource and time constraints –Led to addition of biogenic SOA treatment Just finished Base G (final) Modeling –2009 8-hour ozone and PM25 projections under ASIP –Visibility projections 36-km vs. 12-km similar –Using both 36 km and 12 km grid for 2009 and 2018 projections

31. WRAP Regional Modeling Center, Modeling Forum-AoH Meeting, San Diego, CA Nov 26, 2006 2018 Base G Visibility Projections 2018 36/12 km Base G OTB Base Case –With CAIR but Without BART New and Old IMPROVE equation –New Natural Conditions for New IMPROVE from VIEWS Previously presented preliminary 2018 36 km Base G visibility projections –Data substitution updates since then

32. WRAP Regional Modeling Center, Modeling Forum-AoH Meeting, San Diego, CA Nov 26, 2006 Data Substitution Updates New data substitution database received from ARS on October 19, 2006 1.Add one more site (CADI1) to New IMPROVE equation database  Old IMPROVE still not supporting CADI1 2.Update MING1 with latest data from UC Davis 3.Other minor updates (BRET1, etc.) Always use newest data when available –Still using old substitution data for CHAS1 as missing data in 2003 & 2004 not in new database Display using “DotPlots”, percentage of achieving 2018 URP goal

33. WRAP Regional Modeling Center, Modeling Forum-AoH Meeting, San Diego, CA Nov 26, 2006 CMAQ 2018g1a/Typ02g Method 1 predictions for VISTAS+ sites 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% 180% 200% COHU1DOSO1 GRSM1 JARI1 LIGO1 CADI1 MACA1 SHEN1 SHRO1 SIPS1 CHAS1 EVER1OKEF1 ROMA1 SAMA1 SWAN1 BRET1 BRIG1 CACR1 HEGL1 MING1 UPBU1 Percent of target reduction achieved CMAQ New IMPROVE Algorithm 12km CMAQ Old IMPROVE Algorithm 12km CMAQ New IMPROVE Algorithm 36km CMAQ Old IMPROVE Algorithm 36km VISTASnon-VISTAS

34. WRAP Regional Modeling Center, Modeling Forum-AoH Meeting, San Diego, CA Nov 26, 2006 CMAQ Method 1 predictions for VISTAS+ sites Across RPOs 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% 180% 200% COHU1 DOSO1 GRSM1 JARI1 LIGO1 CADI1 MACA1 SIPS1 SHRO1 SHEN1CHAS1EVER1 OKEF1 ROMA1 SAMA1 SWAN1 BRIG1 BRET1 CACR1 HEGL1 UPBU1 MING1 Percent of target reduction achieved VISTAS New Algo 12km (baseG) VISTAS Old Algo 12km (baseG) VISTAS New Algo 36km (baseG) VISTAS Old Algo 36km (baseG) CENRAP New Algo 36km (18e2 SOA) CENRAP Old Algo 36km (18e2 SOA) MwRPO Old Algo 36km (R4s1a) Comparison of VISTAS 2018 36/12 km Base G New/Old IMPROVE projections with CENRAP 36 km New/Old and MRPO 36 km Old IMPROVE projections CENRAP/MRPO Visibility Projections Now Much More Consistent with VISTAS

35. WRAP Regional Modeling Center, Modeling Forum-AoH Meeting, San Diego, CA Nov 26, 2006..... Hercules Glade, MO.. Likely to meet (>110%) May meet (90-110%) Likely not meet (<90%) VISTAS 2018 Base G Uniform Rate of Progress Assessment Using New IMPROVE equation to calculate visibility

36. WRAP Regional Modeling Center, Modeling Forum-AoH Meeting, San Diego, CA Nov 26, 2006 VISTAS Next Steps QA/QC of 2009 and 2018 projections Area of Influence (AOI) analysis –Identify sources within AOI BART control definitions 2018 strategy runs and projections States perform local PM2.5 and 8-hour ozone modeling

37. WRAP Regional Modeling Center, Modeling Forum-AoH Meeting, San Diego, CA Nov 26, 2006 MANE-VU Modeling NESCAUM, OTC, MARAMA, UMD, States mainly in-house analysis Contribution Report – look at various methods for where PM came from –Back Trajectories -- Residence Time –PMF Receptor Modeling –REMSAD Tagged Species –CMAQ Joint study with MRPO on regional diesel retrofit controls

38. WRAP Regional Modeling Center, Modeling Forum-AoH Meeting, San Diego, CA Nov 26, 2006 Potential Effects on WRAP 2018 visibility projections across RPOs starting to converge WRAP may want to consider processing existing WRAP 2002/2018 PSAT results to look at International Transport/Natural Emissions issues at WRAP Class I areas CENRAP 2018 visibility projections consistent with WRAP