1. Shashin Amatya Yi Gao Lauren Reuther INFSYS-6833 Group B Homicide

2. Our Objectives Problems Background Our Approach Analysis Prediction Improving Prediction Recommendation Homicide

3. Accurately predict homicide in St. Louis City Help effectively allocate required resources in the area Homicide

4. Limited datasets Homicide numbers don’t always match Hard to obtain variable data for period of time Gang Activity Drug Related Violence Hard to obtain Historical Data Yearly Population Density Yearly Income by Neighborhood Yearly Unemployment Rate by Neighborhood Yearly Percentage of People with Kids Yearly Percentage of Races by Neighborhood Homicide

5. Total Population: 318,563 2013 Total Homicide: 120 2014 Total Homicide: 157 2014 - 5 th Most dangerous city Violent crime per 100,000 inhabitants: 1,594 Poverty Rate: 26.6% Homicide

6. We looked at following methods Linear Regression Logarithmic Regression Polynomial Regression Three Month Weighted Moving Average

7. Following variables might influence homicide rate Population Density Median Household Income Median Home Value Unemployment Rate Race/Ethnicity Education Level Median Age Marital Status Male/Female Ratio Median Home Value Homicide

8. Used only one substantive variable and time index Forecasts solely based on historical patterns of data Works better with limited datasets Other variables can be ignored Time trend, seasonal adjustment, cyclical component, and irregular component are already included

9. Used following formula to calculate the value Weighted Average = ((3*2014 month) + (2*2013 month) + (1*2012 month)/6 Homicide By Distributing Weight 50% to the month of 2014 33% to the month of 2013 17% to the month of 2012

10. Homicide Round Up Total Predicted Homicide Round Down Total Predicted Homicide

11. Homicide Corridor YearMonthNorthSouthCentral 2015Jan860 2015Feb333 2015Mar552 2015Apr911 2015May632 2015Jun551 2015Jul952 2015Aug1132 2015Sep1031 2015Oct1333 2015Nov1032 2015Dec1542 Totals1044421 Total Predicted Homicides in 2015169

12. Homicide

14. Homicides are more likely to occur in the North Corridor. Corridor YearMonthNorthSouthCentral 2015Jan860 2015Feb333 2015Mar552 2015Apr911 2015May632 2015Jun551 2015Jul952 2015Aug1132 2015Sep1031 2015Oct1333 2015Nov1032 2015Dec1542 Totals1044421 Homicide

16. Providing adequate historical data Properly defining gang and drug related activities Providing accurate data for variables Exploring other modeling methods Properly testing model Readjusting model if needed

17. Properly reallocating active duty personnel Neighborhood Crime Watch Job creation Deploy programs for citizen awareness Deploy programs to uplift neighborhood situation Homicide

19. http://www.slmpd.org/Crimereports.shtml http://www.areavibes.com/st.+louis-mo/neighborhoods/academy/areavibe/ https://www.stlouis-mo.gov/neighborhoods/ http://www.point2homes.com/US/Neighborhood/MO/St-Louis/Central- Corridor-Demographics.html#Population http://www.weather.gov/climate/local_data.php?wfo=lsx