1. The Status of Puget Sound Chinook Salmon What do we know? and How do we know it? Kit Rawson Tulalip Tribes

2. Salmon Recovery What was the status of the resource historically? What is the status of the resource now? What is the desired future status of the resource? How’d we get here? Recovery Plan

3. Salmon Recovery What was the status of the resource historically? What is the status of the resource now? What is the desired future status of the resource? How’d we get here? Recovery Plan

4. Population Parameters (from “VSP”) Abundance Productivity Diversity Spatial Structure

5. Abundance Census of individuals (how many?) Total biomass (how much?) Count or biomass at: single life stage whole population

6. Abundance Census of individuals (how many?) Spawning escapement Eggs Juvenile outmigration Adult return

7. Spawning Escapement

8. Smith and Castle (1994) Redd counts (approx. weekly) Aerial, foot, float surveys Assume 2.5 fish/redd, 21-day “visible redd life” Supplemented with peak live, dead counts Varying methods for expanding to unsurveyed or poor visibility areas

9. Spawning Escapement No estimate of variance No standard method for separating hatchery and natural-origin

11. Adult Return Run Reconstruction Escapement + Terminal harvest + Mixed-stock harvest Chinook complications Immature fish harvest Non-landed mortality Age distribution

13. Coded-Wire Tag Program

17. Puget Sound Chinook Marine Survival Index

18. Snoqualmie – Current Conditions Equilibrium = 2,300

19. Snoqualmie

20. Juvenile Outmigration

21. Juvenile outmigration Sampling error ( 0.75 – 1.65% captured) Traps upstream of some rearing areas Variable time and size of migration

25. Puget Sound TRT A&P Workbooks For each of 22 natural chinook populations

26. Puget Sound TRT A&P Workbooks Data (some incomplete) Natural escapement estimates Hatchery/natural origin split Exploitation rate estimates Juvenile production Environmental predictors (marine survival, flow)

27. Puget Sound TRT A&P Workbooks Analyses Run reconstruction Trends and variance about trends Spawner/recruit relationships

28. Questions Q: What are the best indices of salmon status to use across species and areas? A: Focus on natural populations/stocks Look at trends in natural escapement and total return Control for marine survival and other signals

29. Questions Q: Over what time period should we assess recovery? Can we separate factors affecting abundance on different time scales? Should we? A: 20 years + Yes

30. Questions Q: How accurately do we need to measure salmon populations to effectively manage them? A: Management systems need to be robust to imprecise and inaccurate assessments of status Even so, we probably need better estimates than we have now.

31. Questions Q: Regional or “top-down” approach best (both within and between ESUs)? A: Regional/local focus is best for adaptive management Needs a few, well-understood guiding principles