1. Principal Investigator: Dr. Amir Muhammed, Director Asianics Agro. Dev. International, Islamabad, Pakistan Countries Involved: Pakistan, India, Nepal, Bangladesh Intended Period : 3 Years; Approved First Year(2002) Activities APN APN,Hansen Institute for World Peace, START

3. Statement of the Problem The region is highly sensitive to flood and drought The elements/sectors currently at risk are likely to highly vulnerable to climate change and variability There exist uncertainties in dealing with vulnerabilities associated to climate change and variability because of: * lack of synthesis of experience in climate trends and extreme events * insufficient baseline information about current impact, adaptation response/capacity and vulnerabilities

4. Research Questions What are the element at risk to drought and flood in the present and in the future climate change scenario ? What are the possible of options to deal with the vulnerabilities associated to Climate change and variability ?

5. Main Objectives Analyze recent experience in climate variability and extreme events, and their impacts on regional water resources  Assess the impacts of projected climate change and variability and associated extreme hydrological events, and socio-economic changes on the water resources of Pakistan, India, Nepal, and Bangladesh  Determine vulnerability of regional water resources to climate change and identifying key risks to each sub-region and prioritizing adaptation responses  Evaluate the efficacy of various adaptation strategies or coping mechanisms that may reduce vulnerability of the regional water resources  Provide inputs to relevant national and regional long-term development strategies

6. Research Framework Past/current variability & trend Existing adaptive Responses/capacity Current vulnerability Lesson learned Link to policy/stakeholder Climate change scenarios Socio-economic change scenarios Future vulnerabilities Future adaptive response/capacity National development plans/priorities External influence Trans-boundary, regional & global factors Alternative policy options and priority measures for policy makers/stakeholders Based on Burton, I

7. Methodology Literature review and synthesis of findings Use of the GCM models for climate change scenarios Use of GIS tools for vulnerability mapping Collection of data for SHUs (Selected Hydrological Units) presently at risk - Field survey and key actor interviews Impact assessment -Loss/damage of life and property (lives, agriculture, forestry, infrastructure ) - water availability/quality - food availability - social equity - human health - population displacement/ migration - others

8. Vulnerability assessment Inventory of elements exposed to climatic hazard Population ( sex, age, caste/ethnicity, income groups) Infrastructure ( settlement, engineering infrastructure, institutions) Economy ( Agriculture (crop, livestock, fisheries) industry, trade) Environment (Land use/land cover and biodiversity) Adaptation assessments Methods Stakeholder consultation Participatory tools Cost benefit analysis Expert Judgment Policy measures and action plan Robustness Resilience Ability, Availability of resource Efficiency Options to respond Resources, Institutions governance, attitude, Perception etc

9.  Assessment of vulnerability of regional water resources to expected climate change  Identification of extreme hydrologic events from historical record that had major regional impacts and a thorough analysis of regional vulnerability and adaptation practices that were used to deal with such disasters  An assessment of adaptation options and coping mechanisms in the region  Relevant to anticipated regional climate change and water resource availability and use  Inputs to national and regional water resource management and policy/decision making community as well as the next round of the IPCC Assessments  Several publications in scientific journals and a book Expected Outcomes

10. Pakistan’s Country Report Syed Amjad Hussain ( Pakistan)

11.  Analysis of recent climatic variability and extreme events  Impacts of climatic variability and extreme events on water and related sectors  Climatic change and socio-economic scenarios  Projected Impacts and vulnerability 1 st Year Thrust Areas

12.  National Scale Studies  Climatic Variability  Impacts on Water Resources and other Sectors  Socio-economic Impacts Target Areas-I

13. Target Areas-II  District Scale Studies  Climatic Variability  Extreme Events  Impacts on Water Resources and other Sectors  Socio-economic Impacts

14. 1 st Thrust Area Analysis of Recent Climatic Variability and Extreme Events

15.  Historical data of temperature and rainfall of selected periods :  1930-60  1960-1990  Recent data of temperature and rainfall for :  1991-2001 Collection of Climatic Data

16. Analysis of Climatic Variability  Temperature  Growing degree days  Seasonal rainfall  Evapotranspiration

17. Analysis of Extreme Events  Droughts  Seasonal rainfall  Evapotranspiration  Floods  Seasonal rainfall  Evapotranspiration

18. 2 nd Thrust Area Impacts of climatic variability and extreme events on water and related sectors

19.  River flow  Water table depths  Groundwater quality  Soil salinity  Land salinity  Land use  Area and yield of crops Collection of Historical Data

20. Impacts Assessment  Change in availability of surface water  Change in groundwater recharge  Change in salinity/waterlogging  Shift in potential boundary of crop potential areas  Change in productivity  Change in water use of crops  Change in landuse

21. 3 rd Thrust Area Climatic change and socio-economic scenarios

22. Socio-economic Impacts  Agriculture  Forestry  Desertification  Costal zone  Human health  Industry and energy  Endangered species

23. 4 th Thrust Area Projected Impacts and Vulnerability

24. Projected Impacts  Projected production of Agricultural Commodities  Demand of Agricultural Commodities  Water Availability for Agriculture

25. Vulnerability Assessment  Potential vulnerability of crops to heat stress  Potential vulnerability of cropping intensity to drought

26. Thank you very much