1. Knowledge base for Forward- Looking Information and Assessment (FLIS) Development of a platform to support long-term decision making

2. Introduction and overview of FLIS: The need to look ahead “The world we have made, as a result of thinking we have done thus far, creates problems we can not solve at the same level of thinking at which we created them.” (Einstein) “For future success in almost any area, we have to incorporate future effects into our current decision policy making.” (Commissioner Potočnik) New thinking Preparedness

3. Introduction and overview of FLIS: What forward-looking assessments provide Forward-looking assessment can: Frame policies by identifying priority, warning signals and emerging issues reflecting on different options for the future identify driving forces and uncertainties Check whether and how targets can be met, their relevance Develop robust measures and precautionary actions Analyse cause-effect relationships Anticipate possible surprises, discontinuities, shocks Facilitate short and long-term thinking in a structured way

4. Introduction and overview of FLIS: Future thinking process to support long-term perspectives in decision making

5. Information about the future itself Practice of studying the future

6. Introduction and overview of FLIS: Relationship to system neighbours

7. Introduction and overview of FLIS: SEIS principles in FLIS Information should be readily accessible for end users and public authorities at all levels to enable them to assess SoE, effectiveness of policies and design new policies in a timely manner Information should be collected once and shared with others for many purposes Managed as close to source as possible Enable comparisons at appropriate geographical scale Information should be supported through common, free, open source standards and if possible software tools

8. Introduction and overview of FLIS: FLIS Management Currently FLIS is managed by the EEA –Information collection via contractors –Content management systems Forward loking indicators – IMS Models – Model Inventry Scenarios – Inventory with AoA tools or SENSE system Enwirowindows In the future –Gradual move to decentralised sytem with countries & relevant organisations

9. Introduction and overview of FLIS: Summary of the state of development of FLIS components  Large amount of analysis on global drivers and megatrends completed, European partly  Integration report and factsheets – pending  Information to be structured and added to online FLIS 2010 / early 2011 with associated indicators  Inventory and evaluation of forward-looking indicators complete  Outlook indicators included in IMS  IMS to be updated / supplemented as new indicators are available  Inventories of models completed (models and participative models)  Model factsheets included in online inventory of models  Inventory to be updated / added to by experts  Catalogue of scenarios completed (pending publication)  Scenario factsheets (from catalogue) to be entered into online inventory of scenarios  Inventory to be updated / added to by experts EEA glossary and environmental thesaurus (GEMET) in place Online inventory of methods together with definition of terms to be developed (2010 – 2011) Consideration being given to development of guidelines for appropriate selection and use of methods  Numerous EIONET events and meetings completed and planned, OSCE, ENVSEC planned  Specific FLIS capacity building to be developed  BLOSSOM project to report – late 2010 / early 2011

10. Thank you!

11. Methods and tools

12. Aim The aim of the methods and tools component is to present descriptions of available methods and tools, as well as guidance on their use in forward-looking environmental assessments.

13. Current activities Inventory of models Scenario building approaches used in regional and countries exercises Building new explorative scenarios on the bases of stakholder praticipation Downscaling existing global scenarios to country level Windtunelling of existing strategies through scenarios Glossary –GEMET and specific glossary linked to scenarios work (draft)

14. While other components of FLIS provide structured information about the future itself, this component is dedicated to practical methods and tools of studying the future Methods and tools: Definition

15. Methods and tools: EEA approach EEA approach literature review scenario development horizon scanning exploration drivers’ analysis megatrends analysis modelling Foresight methods diamond R. Popper, 2008

16. Methods and tools: SWOT analysis Strengths Unique resource – bring together large amount of existing information and research High level of support Value-added applications in decision making, strategic planning and policy Presentation of methods & tools in wider context Weaknesses Inclusion could be interpreted as endorsement of quality Not possible to cover all themes and issues Opportunities Overview of trends and patterns in forward- looking approaches Potential to create “building blocks” for developing forward-looking approaches Threats Very dynamic field – hard to keep up-to-date Relies on active engagement Guidelines are needed, but costly to develop

17. Methods and tools: Further information EEA EnviroWindows - methodshttp://scenarios.ew.eea.europa.eu/fol9 39663 GEMET - GEneral Multilingual Environmental Thesaurus http://www.eionet.europa.eu/gemet/ EEA glossaryhttp://glossary.eea.europa.eu/

18. Networking, capacity building and governance

19. Networking, capacity, governance: EIONET EIONET partnership: EEA European Topic Centres (ETCs) National Focal Points (NFPs) National Reference Centres (NRCs) NRC-FLIS Structure demonstrating how NFPs, NRCs and ETCs interact with EEA

20. Networking, capacity, governance: Networking and building capacity 1.Scenario-building workshops in countries –Slovenia, Turkey, Austria –Network of heads of EU EPAs 2.Cooperation with other institutions: –UNEP/GEO-4 (update of global, developing regional component) –ASEF (3 times, pre-conference mind opener) –ENVSEC (Eastern Europe, Central Asia forthcoming) –OSCE ( 6 scenario-buidling workshops forthcoming: EE, CA, WB, Med, Arctic, global) For awerness raising, capacity building, enhancing stakholders participation, regional recomendations, mind opener Downscaling existing global scenarios to country level Windtunelling existing strategies through scenarios Building new scenarios

21. Awareness raising, enhancing stakeholder participation and capacity building: –Countries workshops, regional workshops in cooperation with ENVSEC, EPA network Mind opener – before or during conferences –3 ASEF conferences (scenario building exercises), Bridging the Gap conference 2009 (future cafes) Developing regional recommendations for countries policy makers (ENVSEC, OSCE) Networking, capacity, governance: Aims of scenarios exercises with partners

22. “Governance” means rules, processes and behaviour that affect the way in which powers are exercised at European level, particularly as regards openness, participation, accountability, effectiveness and coherence (EC White paper on governance) Networking, capacity, governance: Governance

23. BLOSSOM project – building understanding of institutional arrangements for and governance of forward-looking information in environmental policy Bridging LOng-term Scenarios and Strategy analyses – Organisation and Methods Networking, capacity, governance: Governance – BLOSSOM

24. 1st phase: literature review and workshops: potential of sceanrio planning to inform policy making is often under- exploited 2nd phase: role, relevance, practical experience with institutional arrangements in ocuntries (28 interviews, FI, F, NL, PL, SI, S, SE, UK), in 2010 4 countries added: AU, DE, H, P Country Case studies: governance and administrative context,processes, major studies Crosscutting report: commonalities, lessons learnt (institutions, mechanisms, processes) Networking, capacity, governance: Governance

26. BLOSSOM SWOT-tail diagram: Netherlands

27. FLIS will draw on BLOSSOM project: –to inform and support existing and new activities to improve institutional set-up and governance –to encourage information and good-practice exchange Networking, capacity, governance: Governance

28. Networking, capacity, governance: Further information EIONET websitehttp://eionet.europa.eu/ EIONET NRC-FLIShttp://forum.eionet.europa.eu/nrc-flis/ BLOSSOM reportForthcoming 2011 EnviroWindows links to Institutions, Organisations and Networks http://scenarios.ew.eea.europa.eu/link s/other/organisations

29. Use of forward looking information

30. Forward-looking information is increasingly accepted and used: 1.In broad policy oriented forward-looking assessments 2.To support strategic planning and decision making 3.In education, information, science and research Use of forward-looking information

31. Pan European Environment: Glimpses into an uncertain future (2007) Environmental trends and perspectives in the Western Balkans: future production and consumption patterns (2010) Contributions to EEA major reports: Pan European report 2007 (Belgrade), SOER 2010: –Part A: explorative LT (2050) analyses of global megatrends –Part B: thematic assessments (outlook 2020) –Part C: country profiles (include Forward-looking component) Use of forward-looking info: Assessments

32. Use of forward-looking info: Assessments – example Environmental trends and perspectives in the Western Balkans: future production and consumption pattern Framework of analyses Assessment of assessments approach

33. Two purposes of forward-looking information in relation to policy: –Agenda setting – the identification of issues for policy attention and exploration of uncertainties. –Policy development – including long-term (regulatory) impact assessment of policies. Use of forward-looking info: Planning and decision- making

34. Education – use in class-rooms and by students, as well as educating policy makers Information – raising awareness and presenting complex issues clearly Science and research – setting research agendas and priorities Use of forward-looking info: Education, information, science

35. Thank you!