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Canada, an Emerging Energy Superpower

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Presentation on theme: "Canada, an Emerging Energy Superpower"— Presentation transcript:

1 Canada, an Emerging Energy Superpower
CANADA INC. 2006 Energy Round Table Canada, an Emerging Energy Superpower September 26th, Calgary, Alberta Ian D. Anderson President Kinder Morgan Canada

2 The Challenge, The Opportunity
Overview Kinder Morgan Profile The Challenge, The Opportunity Kinder Morgan Canada as Part of the Solution

3 Forward Looking Statements
This presentation contains forward looking statements, including these, within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended and Section 21E of the Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. Forward looking statements are not guarantees of performance. They involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions. The future results and securities values of Kinder Morgan Inc., Kinder Morgan Energy Partners, L.P. and Kinder Morgan Management, LLC (collectively known as “Kinder Morgan”) may differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements contained throughout this presentation and in documents filed with the SEC. Many of the factors that will determine these results and values are beyond Kinder Morgan's ability to control or predict. These statements are necessarily based upon various assumptions involving judgments with respect to the future, including, among others, the ability to achieve synergies and revenue growth; national, international, regional and local economic, competitive and regulatory conditions and developments; technological developments; capital markets conditions; inflation rates; interest rates; the political and economic stability of oil producing nations; energy markets; weather conditions; environmental conditions; business and regulatory or legal decisions; the pace of deregulation of retail natural gas and electricity and certain agricultural products; the timing and success of business development efforts; terrorism; and other uncertainties. You are cautioned not to put undue reliance on any forward-looking statement.

4 Kinder Morgan Assets Trans Corridor Mountain Express Pacific Cochin
2 Pacific Northern TransColorado CALNEV KMCO KMTP KMTejas Wink SACROC Yates 7 5 Plantation Cypress NGPL 8 Central Florida 4 3 KMIGT Trailblazer Cochin North Express Platte Corridor Trans Mountain Claytonville NGPL (KMI) NGPL GAS STORAGE (KMI) RETAIL GAS DISTRIBUTION (KMI) GAS-FIRED POWER PLANTS (KMI) PRODUCTS PIPELINES (KMP) PRODUCTS PIPELINES TERMINALS (KMP) TRANSMIX FACILITIES (KMP) NATURAL GAS PIPELINES (KMI-KMP) NATURAL GAS STORAGE (KMI-KMP) NATURAL GAS PROCESSING (KMI-KMP) CO2 PIPELINES (KMP) CO2 OIL FIELDS (KMP) CRUDE OIL PIPELINES (KMP) KM HEADQUARTERS TERASEN GAS (KMI) PETROLEUM PIPELINES (KMI) PETROLEUM PIPELINES TERMINALS (KMI) (2,3,8) INDICATES NUMBER OF FACILITIES IN AREA

5 KMP: Solid Asset Base Generates Stable Cash Flow
CO2 Products Pipelines KMP 2006 DCF (a) 30% CO2 transport and sales 70% oil production related Expected production hedged (b): 2006=88% 2007=75% 2008=54% Refinery hub to population center strategy 68% Pipelines 27% Associated Terminals (c) 5% Transmix No commodity price risk Products Pipelines 27% CO2 29% Natural Gas Pipelines 25% Terminals 19% Terminals Natural Gas Pipelines 47% Liquids, 53% Bulk Geographic and product diversity 3-4 year average contract life 51% Texas Intrastate 49% Rockies Little incidental commodity risk Budgeted 2006 distributable cash flow before G&A and interest Net equity production, approved plus identified potential projects. Includes heavier NGL components (C4+). Terminals are not FERC regulated except portion of CalNev.

6 KMI: Solid Asset Base Generates Stable Income
Investment in KMP (b) NGPL KMI 2006 Segment Income (a) General partner interest earns incentive distributions Owns 13% of total limited partner units FERC regulated with 3-year average contract life Primary customers are Illinois local distribution companies Little incidental commodity risk NGPL 30% KMP 39% KM Canada Retail Retail Gas Distribution 23% Three major systems connected to Canadian Oilsands Majority of capacity committed under long-term contracts Natural gas distribution service Serve ~ 890,000 customers in British Columbia Serve ~ 245,000 customers in Colorado, Wyoming and Nebraska KM Canada 7% Other 1% Budgeted 2006 segment earnings before G&A and interest. Includes: (i) general partner interest, (ii) earnings from ~ 20 million KMP units & (iii) earnings from ~ 10 million KMR shares.

7 The Opportunity – Oil Sands Production
Western Canadian Crude Production (a) World Oil & Bitumen Reserves – Top 10 (b) (MBbl/d) (reserves billions of barrels) 345 315 270 3.5 MMBbl/d 130 1 MMBbl/d Oil Sands 115 100 100 93 40 32 Export Pipeline Capacity (c) (MBbl/d) New Capacity Required Source: CAAP May 2006 Canadian Crude Production and Supply Forecast Source: NEB 2003 study “Canada’s Energy Future, Scenarios for Supply and Demand to 2025”. Western Canadian Production* Export Pipeline Capacity Western Canada Demand

8 The Opportunity – U.S. a Significant Importer of Crude
U.S. Crude Refinery Inputs by PADD – 2004 (a) Alaskan North Slope Production Declining (b) (MBbl/d) Total Refinery Inputs % Imports Canadian Imports as % of Total Imports PADD I (E. Coast) 1,597 97% 13% PADD II (Midwest) 3,288 89% 36% PADD III (G. Coast) 7,438 59% --- PADD IV (Rockies) 556 46% 100% PADD V (W. Coast) 2,596 9% Total 15,475 65% 16% ANS Crude Oil Production (MBbl/d) Canadian crude through Trans Mountain 16% (100 MBbl/d) Washington State Refinery Capacity (c) Other 84% (615 MBbl/d) Source: EIA “Petroleum Supply Annual 2004”. Source: CIBC Jan-2006 industry report “Oil Pipeline Expansion: Refiners in Traditional Markets Girding for Expanded Diet of Canadian Heavy”. Washington state crude oil refinery capacity. Sources: DBRS Oct-2005 industry report “The Canadian Oilsands”, Company reports.

9 Kinder Morgan Canada Operator of 3 Oil Pipelines
Trans Mountain is sole Pipeline from Alberta to West Coast Express is largest line to PADD IV Platte serves large PADD II market Corridor Trans Mountain Express/Platte

10 Kinder Morgan Canada Trans Mountain
Certainly a lot of current focus on the Trans Mountain system both in terms of construction activity today and what we plan for the future. But first, I thought we’d take a step back and look at West Coast market fundamentals. These 2 or 3 charts are with the help of Energy Analysts International, a Denver-based energy markets consultant:

11 West Coast Crude Market Fundamentals
Production Forecast COASTAL COOK INLET LA Basin OCS SJV ANS From an overall WestCoast production perspective and despite current price levels, we see a consistent trend in production declines: Current levels are in the 1.6 to 1.7 mmbpd range with declines expected around 2%/year over the next 10 years. California crude declines are expected to average slightly higher at 3% ANS slightly lower at 1%/yr. Note that we have not factored in any potential impacts from the current Prudhoe Bay issue. Source: EAI Inc.

12 West Coast Crude Market Fundamentals
Balance Outlook Total West Coast Crude Demand Imports Coastal La Basin San Joaquin Valley OCS Alaska Translating the production forecast to a balance outlook: With demand is rising just less than 1%/yr reflecting refinery creep Import requirements will grow by about 600,000 bpd over the next 10 years Other than logistic constraints (which we are trying to fix), there is no reason Canadian crude can’t fill some of that gap: the current refinery diet in California is suited toward Canadian heavy grades we currently have direct access into Puget Sound Source: EAI Inc.

13 Trans Mountain Volume History
0% Heavy 10% Heavy This is something we are getting used to already on a couple of our systems – Trans Mountain being one of them We have been in some form of apportionment in the last 19/30 months and we do expect continued pressure on the system even after the smaller expansions that are currently under way. Denotes Apportionment

14 TMX Plan – 1.1 Million bpd Existing: 225,000 bpd (heavy)
Pump Station Expansion – 35,000 bpd Anchor Loop – 40,000 bpd Southern Expansion: 2010/11 TMX-2 – 100,000 bpd TMX-3 – 300,000 bpd Northern Expansion TMX-North – 400,000 bpd 1,100 kbpd 400 kbpd 700 kbpd __________________________

15 TMX Value Proposition Market Fundamentals Support an Expanded Western Option Traditional market area is saturated/ Market clearing to support netbacks Washington State refinery conversions California opportunity limited Canadian penetration of PADD V market to date declining ANS/domestic production Asian market option Increasing value of holding options in this market environment TMX Benefits Established operations & infrastructure Connected to existing and expanding markets Staged expansion able to match timing of market needs – risk reduction Export option (also staged to match market needs) Westridge dock expansion Northern Leg Additional Value Added Services Blending and storage at Edmonton, Sumas, Burnaby

16 Corridor Expansion System – 285 mile 24” x 12” line between Muskeg River Mine and Scotford Upgrader 27 mile crude and supplemental line Capacity – 155,000 bpd of dry bitumen from mine to upgrader 71,000 bpd diluent back to mine Shippers – 100% contracted to Athabasca Oil Sands Planned Expansion – new 42” line, up to 1.0 Mil bpd In service 2009 Future Plans – more oilsands take away capacity to match production Muskeg River Mine

17 Kinder Morgan Canada Express/Platte

18 PADD IV Market Fundamentals
Supply – Demand Framework Refinery Runs and Domestic Exports Canadian Imports RM Core Production From a Canadian perspective: Growing opportunity for Canadian supply in the area as a result of declining production coupled with increasing refinery runs Assumes no refinery closures and no major expansions Source EAI 2006

19 Express – Platte Pipeline Systems
Express Pipeline: Expanded to 280,000 bpd in April 2005 Underpinned through 235,000 bpd of firm contracts expiring in 2012/2015 Ownership: 1/3 KMI, 1/3 Ontario Teachers, 1/3 OMERS Talking about Expansion with Refineries in PADD IV Platte Pipeline: 165,000 bpd capacity: Casper to Guernsey 143,000 bpd capacity: ex-Guernsey Increased local production plus Canadian crude wishing to access PADD II has created proration issues at Guernsey Proration policies currently before the FERC Express – With market support, system was expanded from 172 to 280 kbpd in spring of last year. Since then we’ve not only seen new Cdn supplies accessing PADD IV market but also: significant increase in domestic production starting in the end of last year Cdn production seeking to access new PL initiatives in lower PADD II. These 2 events have put pressure on the Platte system and have caused us to prorate the system east of Guernsey Platte prorationing has been a large focus of ours fro the past several months and led to a technical conference in front of the FERC in July the next steps wrt prorationing rest with the FERC but we do expect to be moving to a historical system by year-end.

20 Gulf Coast Market Access
Express Routing: Existing KMC RoW to Casper/Guernsey Satisfy incremental Rockies, Denver, Panhandle supply needs Bullet Line: Existing KM RoW in OK/TX 36” line in-service early 2010 Patoka South: Supply from expanded Express/Platte and others Existing KM RoW/PL assets in IL/ MO/AR/TX Corridor Fort McMurray Edmonton Cold Lake TMPL Hardisty Vancouver Bow River Rangeland Enbridge Anacortes Cenex Express Eastern Corridor Billings PADD IV Pacific PADD II Southern Access Enbridge Casper Koch Guernsey Detroit/ Toledo Platte Chicago Frontier Denver Salt Lake City Jayhawk Patoka Spearhead Wood River Finally, I would be remiss in not touching briefly on our Gulf Coast market access development – looking at 3 different options Bullet line least costly but has fewest synergies PADD III Cushing Midland Express Routing Bullet Line Patoka South Freeport Houston Corpus Christi

21 Kinder Morgan Canada Terminals
Touch briefly on our terminals activity which is moving at a significant pace

22 Terminals Activities – Alberta
Edmonton North Forty Project: 2 million bbls capacity in 9 tanks Connectivity to major feeder streams in area + Trans Mountain and Enbridge Facility now fully underpinned with long-term contracts In service April 2007 KM’s first major terminal project in Canada Hardisty: Land recently acquired to allow construction of 3 million barrels of heated storage Commercial underpinning now being sought Recently announced North 40 project which is now under construction and KM’s first major terminal project in Canada: Provides for 2 million bbls of storage and blending capacity with connectivity to all major feeder and trunk systems First tanks in service by April of next year Hardisty

23 The Big Picture – Developing a CO2 Market
Based on CO2 captured from industrial processes Dual Objectives EOR (Commercial) Storage (compliance) Pipeline infrastructure to accommodate all needs Complex/ New Systems The Enormity of the Task Sequestration EOR Storage Carbon Capture Industrial Source Transportation Infrastructure Meter/ Monitor Verify (MMV)

24 Comparative Market Perspective
ITEM PERMIAN BASIN ALBERTA Emissions Issue None at this time Kyoto Goal - 4 Bcf/d GHG reduction CO2 Demand 1.4 bcf/d mmcf/d (est.) OOIP (bn bbls) 90+ 20 CO2 Pipelines (mi.) 2,000 None

25 CO2 - EOR: Major Capital Commitment & Extensive Expertise
CO2 -EOR Operations (SACROC) Snyder Gas Plant Kinder Morgan Well over $US 1.0 billion in capital 20+ years experience Over 1000 experienced staff Continuing excellence (new p/l, new facilities, $US 200 million capital expansion Active DOE sequestration role CO2 Supply Operation McElmo Dome CO2 Plant

26 CO2 Infrastructure Current engineering route estimate. Pending final design/ procurement only. Phase I: Heartland hub Mainline SW lateral NW lateral [could be staged in sequence} Phase II: Ft. McMurray line If sequestration need or new dilbit Phase III: Init. Design, could route Red Deer Depends on Brooks/ Taber and immisc

27 CANADA INC.


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