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QUANTIFICATION OF DISASTER IMPACTS 1. Damage costs and estimated losses 2. Dynamic effect on growth and other variables 3. Composition of damage (by sectors.

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Presentation on theme: "QUANTIFICATION OF DISASTER IMPACTS 1. Damage costs and estimated losses 2. Dynamic effect on growth and other variables 3. Composition of damage (by sectors."— Presentation transcript:

1 QUANTIFICATION OF DISASTER IMPACTS 1. Damage costs and estimated losses 2. Dynamic effect on growth and other variables 3. Composition of damage (by sectors and type) Data from ECLAC led disaster assessments

2 R. Zapata - Focal Point on Disaster Evaluation2 UN - ECLAC IMPACT OF DISASTERS IN LATINA AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN – 1972-2005 (based on ECLAC assessments) PERIOD AFFECTED POPULATION TOTAL IMPACT (CONSTANT 2004 VALUE) Deaths Directly affected population TOTAL TOTAL DAMAGE (to assets) LOSSES (in flows) External impact 1972-2005115,17635,463,890232,259.4150,335.080,424.377,221.0 YEARLY AVERAGE (on the basis of ECLAC assessed disasters in Latin America and the Caribbean) 3,4901,074,6637,038.24,555.62,437.12,340.0

3 R. Zapata - Focal Point on Disaster Evaluation3 UN - ECLAC DIFFERENT IMPACTS OF DIFFERENT EVENTS (as observed in ECLAC assessments, 1972-2005) AFFECTED POPULATION TOTAL IMPACT (constant 2004 prices) DeathsDirectly affected population TOTALDAMAGE (to assets) LOSSES (in flows) External sector impact METEOROLOGICAL (CLIMATIC) EVENTS 50,42424,945,145118,92673,38243,30435,600 GEOMORPHOLOGICAL (SISMIC, VOLCANIC) EVENTS 64,75210,518,745113,33476,95337,12041,621 Droughts352,200,00010,5995,8884,7123,141 TOTAL ASSESSED EVENTS115,17635,463,890232,259.4150,335.080,424.377,221.0 Meteorological as % of total44%70%51%49%54%46% Droughts as % of total0.07%8.82%8.91%8.02%10.88%8.82% Damage composition total 64.7%34.6%33.2% Meteorological or climatic 61.7%36.4%29.9% Non-climatic 67.9%32.8%36.7% Droughts 55.5%44.5%29.6%

4 R. Zapata - Focal Point on Disaster Evaluation4 UN - ECLAC Global dynamic effects Macroeconomic effects Repercussions are felt in the national, local or regional economy as a consequence of the disaster (natural event) Repercussions are felt in the national, local or regional economy as a consequence of the disaster (natural event) It may last for several years after the disaster, depending on the characteristics of the event, its magnitude and the sectors / activities affected It may last for several years after the disaster, depending on the characteristics of the event, its magnitude and the sectors / activities affected Are measurable as Are measurable as  Growth rate and level of GDP  Performance of the external sector (imports, exports, transfers and investment)  Performance of public finances  Price variations and inflation

5 R. Zapata - Focal Point on Disaster Evaluation5 UN - ECLAC CUMULATIVE IMPACT of successive disasters on gross capital formation * * * * TIME GROSS CAPITAL FORMATION ACTUAL CAPITAL FORMATION POTENTIAL GROWTH PATH *DISASTER

6 R. Zapata - Focal Point on Disaster Evaluation6 UN - ECLAC HUMAN -Health -Education NATURAL -Clean water -Clean air -Biodiversity and ecosystem (microclimate) FINANCIAL -Access to credit -Land tenure and ownership PHYSICAL -Type and quality of settlement and housing SOCIAL -Social networks (security and solidarity) -Family ties and extended family -Violence and security

7 R. Zapata - Focal Point on Disaster Evaluation7 UN - ECLAC

8 R. Zapata - Focal Point on Disaster Evaluation8 UN - ECLAC

9 R. Zapata - Focal Point on Disaster Evaluation9 UN - ECLAC PROCESSES (DRIVERS) VULNERABILITIES (RESPONSES) CLIMATE STRESSORS COPING CAPACITY SENSITIVITYEXPOSURES

10 R. Zapata - Focal Point on Disaster Evaluation10 UN - ECLAC El Niño 97-98 effects in the main economic variables of Andean countries

11 R. Zapata - Focal Point on Disaster Evaluation11 UN - ECLAC Macroeconomic effect: decreased national growth rates -0.3-0.3 -1.4 -9.0 -0.9

12 R. Zapata - Focal Point on Disaster Evaluation12 UN - ECLAC MITCH DROUGHT

13 R. Zapata - Focal Point on Disaster Evaluation13 UN - ECLAC MITCH DROUGHT

14 R. Zapata - Focal Point on Disaster Evaluation14 UN - ECLAC MITCH EARTHQUAKE DROUGHT STAN

15 R. Zapata - Focal Point on Disaster Evaluation15 UN - ECLAC Hurricane Stan in El Salvador: Breakdown of damage and losses Sector and sub sector Damage, Millions US$ Losses, TOTAL SocialHousingEducationHealth48.036.0 4.9 4.9 7.1 7.1101.5 77.1 77.1 12.2 12.2 149.5113.1 17.0 17.0 19.3 19.3 ProductiveAgricultureIndustryCommerceTourism21.721.6------0.134.427.1 3.1 3.1 4.3 4.3 4.1 4.156.148.7 3.1 3.1 4.3 4.3 4.1 4.1 Infrastructure Water and sanitation ElectricityTransport105.5 8.5 8.5 0.8 0.8 96.2 96.2 8.1 8.1 3.3 3.3-1.2 6.8 6.8113.5 11.8 11.8 -1.3 -1.3103.0 Environment21.00.921.8 Emergency and relief ---10.610.6 TOTAL196.2159.5355.6

16 R. Zapata - Focal Point on Disaster Evaluation16 UN - ECLAC MITCH DROUGHT STAN

17 R. Zapata - Focal Point on Disaster Evaluation17 UN - ECLAC Hurricane Stan in Guatemala: Breakdown of damage and losses Sector and sub sector Damage, Millions of Quetzales Losses, Millions Quetzales Total SocialHousingEducationHealth629.9545.2 52.6 52.6 29.1 29.1543.2 455.0 455.0 9.3 9.3 78.9 78.9,1,170.1 1,000.2 1,000.2 61.9 61.9 108.0 108.0 ProductiveAgricultureIndustryCommerceTourism305.9178.9 75.0 75.0 50.0 50.0 2.0 2.01,736.1 411.8 411.8 355.8 355.8 564.9 564.9 403.6 403.62,042.0 590.7 590.7 430.8 430.8 614.9 614.9 405.6 405.6 Infrastructure Water and sanitation ElectricityTransport1,959.5 46.4 46.4 22.1 22.1 1,891.0 1,891.0 1,436.8 1,436.8 43.7 43.7 16.3 16.3 1,376.8 1,376.83,396.3 90.1 90.1 38.4 38.43,267.8 Environment 308.0 308.0... Emergency and relief --- 594.8 594.8 TOTAL3,200.34,310.97,511.2

18 R. Zapata - Focal Point on Disaster Evaluation18 UN - ECLAC MITCH DROUGHT

19 R. Zapata - Focal Point on Disaster Evaluation19 UN - ECLAC

20 R. Zapata - Focal Point on Disaster Evaluation20 UN - ECLAC Impact of disasters on GDP: State of Gujarat, India

21 R. Zapata - Focal Point on Disaster Evaluation21 UN - ECLAC Summary of 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, by country CountryDamageLosses Total Impact Magnitude, Impact/GDP India5756491,2240.2 Indonesia2,9201,5314,4512.0 Maldives45015360383.6 Sri Lanka 1,1443101,4547.6 Thailand5081,6902,1981.4 Total Region 5,5974,3679,9631.0

22 R. Zapata - Focal Point on Disaster Evaluation22 UN - ECLAC Breakdown of 2004 Tsunami impact

23 R. Zapata - Focal Point on Disaster Evaluation23 UN - ECLAC Absolute and relative impact of 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami on main affected countries

24 R. Zapata - Focal Point on Disaster Evaluation24 UN - ECLAC Tsunami impact: Gap between forecasted and actual GDP growth in 2004-2005

25 R. Zapata - Focal Point on Disaster Evaluation25 UN - ECLAC 2004 Tsunami impact in India: Absolute and relative value of damage and losses by affected states

26 R. Zapata - Focal Point on Disaster Evaluation26 UN - ECLAC ECONOMIC IMPACT OF THE ATLANTIC 2004 HURRICANE SEASON Island / State Economic impact Event Millions of US$ Assessed by ECLAC 6,059 Ivan, Frances and Jeanne a/ Bahamas551 Hurricanes Frances and Jeanne Cayman Islands 3,432Ivan Dominican Republic 296 Tropical storm Jeanne Granada889Ivan Haití296Jeanne Jamaica595Ivan Florida (a) 30,000 Jeanne, Charley and Frances Cuba (b) 1,500Frances Total (including Cuba y Florida) 37,559 a) Based on information provided by insurance and reinsurance companies (Munich Re) b) Official estimates from t he Cuban government, may not include losses

27 R. Zapata - Focal Point on Disaster Evaluation27 UN - ECLAC 2004 Atlantic Hurricanes: Relative and absolute impact of damage and losses by affected country / state

28 R. Zapata - Focal Point on Disaster Evaluation28 UN - ECLAC Damage profile in the Caribbean Hurricane 2004 season

29 R. Zapata - Focal Point on Disaster Evaluation29 UN - ECLAC 2005 Atlantic Hurricane season Deaths Directly affected population Total impact (millions of USD) Damage (to assets) Losses (in flows) Per capita impact on affected population DateLocation Type of event Population Total impact (millions of USD) JanuaryGuyana Flood due to intense rainfall in December/January period in coastal floodplains in Georgetown and Albion 34274,774465.1418.346.81,692.7 OctoberGuatemala Torrential rains, tropical storm Stan 1,583474,821988.3421.1567.22,081.4 October El Salvador Torrential rains, tropical storm Stan, and Ilamatepec (Santa Ana) volcano eruption 6972,141355.7196.2159.54,930.6 July-September United States b/ Dennis, Katrina, Rita 1,698900,000200,000.065,000.0135,000.0222,222.2 July-September Mexico b/ Emily, Stan, Wilma, etc. 642,680,5712,200.01,250.0950.0820.7 Emily463,300413.2322.890.46,527.5 August Cuba b/ Dennis162,500,0001,400.0950.0450.0560.0 Other events a/ 1,1343,474,389150.0100.050.043.2 TOTAL Assessed by ECLAC 1,690885,0362,2221,3588642,511.0 TOTAL (not including United States) 2,9006,002,3075,5593,2362,174926.2 TOTAL (IN CLUDING UNITED STATES) 4,5986,902,307205,55968,236137,17429,781.2 Source: ECLAC estimates Nota: Data for Mexico and United States are partial and reglect preliminary estimates. In the case of Mexico the complete assessment is in process by the official technical entitites. a/ Includes volcanic eruptions, earthquakes and floods in other countries and are an estimate on the basisof partial data. b/ Based on diverse sources, not official estimates.

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