1. Office of Research and Development National Exposure Research Laboratory, Atmospheric Modeling and Analysis Division S.T. Rao Director, NERL/AMAD U.S. EPA 9 th Annual CMAS Conference Chapel Hill, NC October 11, 2010 AMAD Strategic Planning (2011-2015)

2. Office of Research and Development National Exposure Research Laboratory, Atmospheric Modeling and Analysis Division Office of Research and Development National Exposure Research Laboratory, Atmospheric Modeling and Analysis Division Objectives of AMAD’s Strategic Plan Guides AMAD’s research for 2011-2015 Provides a framework for annual task/project planning for CMAQ and other air quality modeling activities Responds to CMAS feedback and Division peer reviews to be more transparent and open regarding our research plans

3. Office of Research and Development National Exposure Research Laboratory, Atmospheric Modeling and Analysis Division Research Drivers EPA strategic goals and priorities –Climate change and air quality –Water quality –Healthy communities –Chemical risk –Environmental law enforcement Office of Research and Development priorities –Support for Program/Regional offices –Implementing Integrated Transdisciplinary Research (ITR) in ORD Air/Climate/Energy Sustainable Communities Sustainable Waters Safe Products for a Sustainable World –Innovation toward sustainability –Effective communications

4. Office of Research and Development National Exposure Research Laboratory, Atmospheric Modeling and Analysis Division Research Drivers (cont.) Peer reviewers recommended the following: –Maintain Division’s core research while addressing agency’s near- term priorities –Build collaborations with other agencies for areas where in-house expertise is inadequate (e.g., on climate change-air quality work) –Integrate air quality and human exposure modeling for health studies –Integrate meteorological and hydrological modeling for ecosystem exposures

5. Office of Research and Development National Exposure Research Laboratory, Atmospheric Modeling and Analysis Division Research Prioritization Criteria Project/Program Level Criteria –Is an important issue to EPA (Problem of Broad National Significance) –Leverages AMAD’s expertise –Advances exposure science –Advances the science in CMAQ (i.e., reduces modeling uncertainty) –Advances integrated transdisciplinary research on EPA priorities in four program areas –Provides a sound scientific basis for Agency policies

6. Office of Research and Development National Exposure Research Laboratory, Atmospheric Modeling and Analysis Division Research Prioritization Criteria (cont.) AMAD’s Model Development and Evaluation Task Criteria –Model/process improvements reduce uncertainty in model-sensitive parameters of significance to decision makers –Model/process improvements correct errors/biases or reduce uncertainties based on results of model evaluations, in processes/parameters of significance to decision makers –Model/process improvements to maintain models at state-of-science –Advances the science through external collaborations in model development/evaluation –Provides significant efficiencies in model utility for community of users –Can accomplish in a timely and affordable manner

7. Office of Research and Development National Exposure Research Laboratory, Atmospheric Modeling and Analysis Division AMAD’s Long-Term Vision Development of an integrated modeling system that is capable of simulating global-to-continental-to-regional-to-local scale phenomena of the atmosphere, hydrosphere, and biosphere on relevant temporal scales of interest to exposure assessments Design of core model components linked on an application-specific basis to answer science and policy questions related to human and ecosystem exposure to environmental stressors Objective assessment and communication of uncertainties in modeling results

8. Office of Research and Development National Exposure Research Laboratory, Atmospheric Modeling and Analysis Division Components of AMAD’s Strategic Plan Core research on Model Development and Evaluation, which includes a continued focus on CMAQ Emerging research areas –Integrating air quality and ecosystem health –Integrating air quality and human health –Integrating air quality and climate change

9. Office of Research and Development National Exposure Research Laboratory, Atmospheric Modeling and Analysis Division Core Research Area – Model Development and Evaluation Improve predictive accuracy of CMAQ –Use model performance evaluations (operational, dynamic, diagnostic, probabilistic) to identify highest-priority model errors impacting current and emerging applications Ensure credibility of CMAQ for policy decisions –Communicate evaluation results to the scientific and decision-making community Maintain utility of CMAQ –Provide efficiency upgrades, numerical stability, modularity/user friendliness, backward compatibility, tool distribution (e.g., AMET), user outreach through CMAS Pursue next generation air quality modeling system –Explore transdisciplinary applications –Develop probabilistic model output

10. Integrated Atmospheric Modeling Systems > Meteorology, air quality modeling > Data analysis > CMAQ, AERMOD, other models Climate Change-Air quality Interactions Impacts on Human Health Impacts on Ecosystems Extreme Weather (heat waves, forest fires, floods, droughts) Hydrological modeling, precip prediction, atmos. deposition Air quality, exposure modeling Weather, climate, air quality observations Climate Model Downscaling (clouds, aerosols, precip) Regulatory Policies Accountability Projected future air quality- climate change effects Evaluation of Regulations Projected air quality conditions AMAD’s Integrated Inter-disciplinary Research

11. Office of Research and Development National Exposure Research Laboratory, Atmospheric Modeling and Analysis Division Strategic Plan on AMAD Website AMAD Strategic Research Plan (2011-2015) Appendices: AMAD White Papers –Integrate Air Quality Modeling and Ecosystem Exposure Applications –Integrate Air Quality Modeling and Human Exposure Applications –Integrate Air Quality Modeling and Global Climate Change Website: http://www.epa.gov/amad/http://www.epa.gov/amad/ Send Comments to: rao.st@epa.gov