1. Activities and Imperatives Anna Pirani ICPO Visiting Scientist, Princeton University

2. To facilitate the analysis and prediction of Earth System variability and change for use in an increasing range of practical applications of direct relevance, benefit and value to society

3. CLIVAR SSC J. Hurrell (co-chair) NCAR, USA M. Visbeck (co-chair) IFM-GEOMAR, Germany W Dong Beijing Normal University, China L. Goddard Earth Institute at Columbia, USA C. R. Mechoso University of California, USA T. Tokioka Frontier Research System for Global Change, Japan Ex Officio Members: CLIVAR Panel and Working Group Chairs T. Ackerman (chair GEWEX SSG) International CLIVAR Project Office: H. Cattle (Director) A. Pirani, K. Stansfeld, N. Caltabiano, C. Ereno S. Grapes

4. CLIVAR WG Ocean Model Development WG Coupled Modeling WG Seasonal to Interannual Prediction PAGES-CLIVAR Intersection ETCCDI Global Synthesis and Observations Panel Atlantic Implementation Panel Indian Ocean Panel Pacific Implementation Panel Southern Ocean Panel Arctic Climate Panel Variability American Monsoon System Variability African Climate System Asian-Austral Monsoon

5. CLIVAR Activities – CMIP5 experimental protocol – Climate System Historical Forecast Project (CHFP) – Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments (CORE) – Coordinated development of ocean synthesis products Climate Modeling » Anthropogenic Climate Change » Climate variability and predictability » Model development and evaluation » Regional climate modeling and analysis − Regional focus through CLIVAR regional panels − Task Force on Regional Climate Downscaling

6. CLIVAR Activities Observations and Process Studies − Global Ocean Observing System − Facilitate completion of key process studies − Improve prediction of key tropical modes (ENSO, TAV)

7. CLIVAR Activities Monsoons and African Climate Variability − Contribute to improved predictions through: oLeveraging key WCRP modeling experiments: diagnostic subprojects oActive participation in WCRP IMS project on MJO/Monsoon ISO hindcast experiments; links to YOTC oContinued interaction with AMMA (via TACE) oImplementation of the VAMOS Modeling Plan

8. Atlantic MOC index from a suite of coupled climate models Extremes − Initial focus on drought with GEWEX: DIG − White paper on Drought Predictability and Prediction in a Changing Climate: Assessing Current Predictive Knowledge and Capabilities, User Requirements, and Research Priorities Decadal Variability and Prediction − What are the mechanisms of variability? − Does the oceanic variability have atmospheric relevance? − To what extent is decadal variability in the oceans and atmosphere predictable? CLIVAR Activities

9. CLIVAR Contributions to Implementation of the WCRP Strategic Framework Aim: “to make new advances in the analysis and prediction of the variability and change of the comprehensive Earth system for use in an increasing range of practical applications of direct relevance, benefit and value to society” WCRP Strategic Framework 2005-2015 Coordinated Observation and Prediction of the Earth System (COPES)

10. Asked each panel/WG to identify: – Imperatives over the coming years to 2013 and, perhaps, continuing over the next decade? Activities that "must" be continued and/or implemented because they are of the highest scientific importance with a high likelihood of success. – What are the frontiers for the next decade and beyond? – What key developments to enabling infrastructure necessary to deliver to the above. CLIVAR SSG-16 (Madrid, 19-22 May 2009) Imperatives: build consensus Organized around − WCRP crosscutting topics (ACC, decadal and seasonal prediction, monsoon and extremes) under COPES − Additional focus on observations, synthesis and ocean modeling as particular CLIVAR contributions to overarching COPES themes

11. Anthropogenic Climate Change – Natural versus forced variability – Regional phenomena – Extremes – (Complete CMIP5) Decadal Variability, Predictability and Prediction – Determine predictability – Mechanisms of variability – Role of oceans – Adequacy of observing system – Initialization – Drought – (Building pan-WCRP links) – (Complete CMIP5) Intraseasonal and Seasonal Predictability and Prediction – Monsoons – ISV/MJO – (Building pan-WCRP and WWRP links) – (Complete CHFP) CLIVAR Imperatives

12. Improved Atmosphere and Ocean Components of ESMs – Analysis and Evaluation –“Climate Process Teams” (process studies) – (Building links pan-WCRP, IGBP) – (Complete CORE) Data Synthesis and Analysis – Ocean – Coupled Data Assimilation Systems Ocean Observing System – Development and System Design – (Building IGBP links for Carbon, Biogeochemistry, Ecosystems) Anthropogenic Climate Change Decadal Variability, Predictability and Prediction Intraseasonal and Seasonal Predictability and Prediction Capacity Building CLIVAR Imperatives

13. WCRP Community-Wide Consultation on Model Evaluation and Improvement To: - NWP and Seasonal Forecasting Centers - World Climate Modeling Centers - WGCM and associated MIPs (PMIP, CFMIP, C4MIP, etc) - CLIVAR modeling groups (WGOMD, WGSIP) - CLIVAR regional and monsoon panels - US CLIVAR panels and working groups, CPTs - WCRP Task force on Regional Climate Downscaling - WCRP Projects (CLIC, SPARC, GEWEX) - THORPEX, WWRP - IGBP/AIMES From: Sandrine Bony, Gerald Meehl, Anna Pirani (WGCM), Christian Jakob, Martin Miller (WGNE), Ben Kirtman (WGSIP), Stephen Griffies (WGOMD), Tony Busalacchi (WCRP)

14. Bottom-up survey on the key deficiencies of climate and NWP models. 6 Questions: solicit input from the process study/observational/field campaign community (eg VOCALS, SPICE, TACE...etc), CMIP3 analysts and the modeling centers. Input for WGCM and WGNE, community resource website and a White Paper. Defining priorities for new opportunities (new observations or new field campaigns or new related ideas) and develop the next generation of models. WCRP Community-Wide Consultation on Model Evaluation and Improvement