1. www.genuity.com IPv4 Address Allocation Trends J. Scott Marcus Chief Technology Officer (CTO) May 22, 2001

2. www.genuity.com IPv4 Address Allocation Trends AS number exhaustion - the RIRs recognize the need for forecasting IPv4 allocation and usage trends The McFadden/Holmes Report

3. www.genuity.com Exponential Growth of Autonomous System (AS) numbers Source: Scott Marcus, Genuity

4. www.genuity.com Exponential vs Quadratic (Bates Data)

5. www.genuity.com Chicken Little was Wrong! This is far simpler to remedy than IPv4 address exhaustion, because –the solution need not impact end systems (hosts); –the solution need not impact DNS; and –the solution need not impact routers unless they speak BGP-4. Any solution is complicated by the need for backward compatibility and phased migration. Time until exhaustion is nonetheless sufficient to architect, design, implement and deploy solutions. Cisco and Juniper are reportedly well into implementation.

6. www.genuity.com BGP Table Growth since 1989 Route Table Bloat - a Different Problem

7. www.genuity.com The RIRs Recognize the Need for Forecasting Continuing need to further refine projections. Need for forward-looking proactive forecasting on a regular basis not only for AS numbers, but also for route table entries and IPv4/IPv6 addresses. Forecasting needs to incorporate allocation data from all three RIRs (APNIC, ARIN, RIPE NCC). Forecasting needs to be institutionalized by the RIRs themselves, with data readily available to independent researchers.

8. www.genuity.com The Team Assembled by ARIN –Frank SolenskyGotham Networks –kc claffyCAIDA –Scott MarcusGenuity Active contributions and support by APNIC and RIPE NCC

9. www.genuity.com Goals (and Non-Goals) for RIR Team Formally and regularly: –Gather address deployment data from RIRs –Perform statistical analysis –Make allocation data available for independent analysis Non-goals: –‘Blue sky’ theorizing –Estimating NAT utilization (for now)

10. www.genuity.com Annual IPv4 Allocations

11. www.genuity.com Cumulative IPv4 Allocations

12. www.genuity.com IPv4 Address Allocations: Linear Fit

13. www.genuity.com Address Allocations: Logistic Fit

14. www.genuity.com A Closer Look - Logistic Curve

15. www.genuity.com Addresses Seen by Telstra (AS1221)

16. www.genuity.com Addresses in Use

17. www.genuity.com Routing Table Address Growth

18. www.genuity.com McFadden/Holmes/Mylotte Projection Purported Worst Case, Most Likely and Best Cases

19. www.genuity.com Rate of Depletion Annual growth rate –McFadden/Holmes assumes low/medium/high growth of 30%/50%/80% respectively. –RIR data shows annual growth of about 3%, with a negative second derivative –Geoff Huston’s data shows annual growth of roughly 7% Order of magnitude discrepancy! The trend does NOT appear to be exponential overall.

20. www.genuity.com Marketing Analysis Numerous statistics, no attribution No traceability of assumptions No verifiability of source data

21. www.genuity.com Lessons The RIR team will continue to focus on conservative analysis and extrapolation of verifiable quantitative data. Debate is a healthy thing - “Let a thousand flowers bloom.” We will make RIR source data available to independent researchers. Policymakers in the RIRs, ASO, IETF and elsewhere should benefit from diverse inputs and should reach their own conclusions.

22. www.genuity.com Acknowledgments Frank Solensky, Gotham Networks kc claffy, CAIDA Geoff Huston, Telstra Cathy Murphy, ARIN Paul Wilson, APNIC Axel Pawlik and Mirjam Kuehne, RIPE NCC Tony Bates and Phillip Smith, Cisco Mark Kosters, Verisign Christian Huitema, Microsoft