1. Britain in 2010: Retrospective Reflections Ben R. Martin SPRU – Science and Technology Policy Research, University of Sussex B.Martin@sussex.ac.uk Invited Presentation at the Policy Studies Institute Workshop on ‘ Back to the Future: Assessing Britain in 2010 ’, held at the Royal Society of Arts, London, 12 May 2010

2. 2 Introduction Set Britain in 2010 in wider historical context Focus more on technology and technological forecasting Impact and significance? Conclusions

3. 3 Historical background 1950s – origins of (technological) forecasting US – DoD, RAND, Hudson Institute France – Gaston Berger – La Prospective Development of basic tools – e.g. scenarios, Delphi etc. 1960s – spread to academic community  emergence of ‘ futures ’ community  establishment of journals, conferences etc. other countries  e.g. UK – The World in 1984 (New Scientist, 1964) companies  e.g. General Electric, Shell (scenarios)

4. 4 Historical background 1970s – challenges The Limits to Growth (1972)  Application of computers and systems modelling  World ’ s resources running out fast so future growth limited   Fierce debate (e.g. SPRU critique) Failure to foresee 1973 oil crisis  crisis of confidence in forecasting Japan Large forecasting exercises (e.g. STA 30-year forecasts) Emphasis on process and wide-scale involvement (cf. earlier reliance on ‘ experts ’ ) – ‘ 5 Cs ’ process benefits Use by both government and industry Beginnings of shift from forecasting to ‘ foresight ’

5. 5 The UK context 1983 – ACARD & Cabinet Office How to identify exploitable areas of science? SPRU study – ‘ Project Foresight ’  Survey of 4 countries – F, G, J and US  Quite extensive use of forecasting in private sector & in Japan  Shift from forecasting to ‘ foresight ’  Learn from international experiences & set up pilot exercise in UK  But political circumstances not right!  Little immediate impact Late 1980s – upsurge of interest in forecasting in UK  Cabinet Office & ACOST – technology matrices, Committee on Emerging Technologies  CEST – better/faster exploitation of S&T by companies  DTI – Forward Looks, IT Futures Study  DoE – 1986 Appraisal  Companies – various prospective analyses

6. 6 Britain in 2010 Approach “ problem-oriented … empirical and pragmatic ” “ rely mainly on information already available ” Focus on S&T component Drew on articles in newspapers, popular sc journals etc. Developments in new technologies – e.g. IT, biotech General issues – e.g. convergence between technologies, rapid pace of change, constraints on tech exploitation Effects of S&T on sectors (e.g. agric, mfg, households) Implications  Successful exploitation of tech ’ y associated with effective R&D  Specialist skills crucial  Gov ’ t regulation & intervention often vital (e.g. telecomms) Predictions stand up reasonably well 20 years on!

7. 7 Impact and significance Relatively few citations (6 in WoS, 16 in GS) But part of resurgence of interest in forecasting in UK Reflected the shift from forecasting to foresight  “ what is involved is not predicting a future that is fixed, but making possible better-informed choices so that the future can be made better than it would have been otherwise ” Picked up in 1993 SPRU Report to OST, which recommended UK establish a Foresight Programme Helped make wider political climate more receptive to benefits of forecasting Hence contributed to OST & Waldegrave decision to launch Technology Foresight Programme in 1993

8. 8 Conclusions Forecasting or ‘ foresight ’ now an established tool in government and industry Britain in 2010 part of renewed interest in forecasting in early ’ 90s reflected fundamental shift from forecasting to ‘ foresight ’ helped prepare ground for OST launch of TFP Impact of research on policy? Need ‘ market research ’ to identify opportunity (Carpe diem) clear ‘ demand-pull ’ as well as ‘ science-push ’ marketing, even missionary work to articulate demand adequate ‘ absorptive capacity ’ in host ‘ product champion ’ perseverance and a thick skin! Cf. literature on innovation and entrepreneurs

9. 9 Reference B.R. Martin, ‘ Foresight in science and technology: on the origins and importance of terminology ’, Special Issue of Technological Forecasting and Social Change on ‘ Strategic Foresight ’, edited by Joseph Coates, Michel Godet and Philippe Durance (forthcoming)