1. Demand Side Products in PJM Joseph BowringCornell University January 17, 2011

2. Demand Side Products in PJM Overview of demand side programs in PJM Rationale for demand side programs Definition of economic demand side product Energy market interruptibility LMP customers Retail rate customers Definition of DR product Capacity market interruptibility Called only for an emergency (economic product) Limits on number and duration of calls; season 2.5 percent demand reduction in capacity market DR sets own energy price when called ©2011 www.monitoringanalytics.com2

3. Demand Side Products in PJM Inclusion of LMP customers in energy market program M&V issues CBL definition Double counting/over compliance Impact on RPM clearing prices Relationship to quality of product No DR market power mitigation ©2011 www.monitoringanalytics.com3

4. New Demand Side Products in PJM New demand side products: capacity market Limited product (10 x 6) Unlimited product (some limits remain) Summer unlimited New demand side products: energy and capacity markets PRD o Metering o Central control o Economic resource o Nodal pricing o Link to wholesale price ©2011 www.monitoringanalytics.com4

5. ©2010 www.monitoringanalytics.com5 Table 2-100 Overview of Demand Side Programs (See 2009 SOM, Table 2-93)

6. ©2010 www.monitoringanalytics.com6 Figure 2 ‑ 23 Demand Response revenue by market: Calendar years 2002 through 2009

7. ©2010 www.monitoringanalytics.com7 Table 2-101 Economic Program registration on peak load days: Calendar years 2002 to 2009 and January through September 2010 (See 2009 SOM, Table 2-94)

8. ©2010 www.monitoringanalytics.com8 Table 2-106 Distinct customers and CSPs submitting settlements in the Economic Program by month: January 2007 through September 2010 (See 2009 SOM, Table 2-101)

9. ©2010 www.monitoringanalytics.com9 Figure 2-25 Economic Program payments: Calendar years 2007 through 2009 and January through September 2010 (See 2009 SOM, Figure 2-24)

10. ©2010 www.monitoringanalytics.com10 Table 2-110 Registered MW in the Load Management Program by program type: Delivery years 2007/2008 through 2010/2011 (See 2009 SOM, Table 2-105)

11. ©2010 www.monitoringanalytics.com11 Table 2-112 Demand Response (DR) offered and cleared in RPM Base Residual Auction: Delivery years 2007/2008 through 2013/2014 (See 2009 SOM, Table 2-107)

12. Table 15 Impact of not reducing demand by Short-Term Resource Procurement Target: 2013/2014 RPM Base Residual Auction ©2010www.monitoringanalytics.com12

13. Table 22 DR and EE Offers by Price Range: 2013/2014 Base Residual Auction ©2010www.monitoringanalytics.com13

14. Table 23 DR and EE Offer Impact ©2010www.monitoringanalytics.com14

15. New Demand Side Products: Capacity ©2010 www.monitoringanalytics.com15

16. Unlimited Capacity Product MMU supports the development of an unlimited capacity only product to replace the current summer only 10X6 product: Unlimited capacity is the standard unit of measure in the RPM Auctions. o This is the definition of the capacity product. The 10X6 product and the summer unlimited product are not equivalent capacity Paying the full capacity price for a limited product distorts market outcomes Defining the product clearly and consistently means that there is no reason for multiple capacity prices ©2010 www.monitoringanalytics.com16

17. Unlimited Capacity Product Current limited DR can be converted to an unlimited product: Portfolio aggregation of limited DR customers to create an unlimited equivalent portfolio Compliance evaluated at portfolio basis EFORd approach can value all DR products Unlimited DR is a capacity only product DR is selling interruptibility. Load is not on system when those who pay for capacity need it. No Day Ahead or Real Time energy offers Not eligible to set price in the energy market when called in the capacity market No retail rate related restrictions ©2010 www.monitoringanalytics.com17

18. Summer Only Capacity Product Unlimited Product definition is consistent with value of Summer Unlimited product Customers qualifying as Summer Unlimited should wholly or partially qualify as Unlimited: Using Firm Service Level (FSL) approach, if naturally occurring load levels are below the FSL outside the summer period, customer is compliant Example: o If load reduction to FSL comes from air conditioning load cycling in summer peaks, non summer period load will already reflect absence of air conditioning load. o Customer would be compliant in non summer period ©2010 www.monitoringanalytics.com18

19. Capacity Product: Questions What are the locational requirements for DR compliance/response calculations? PJM needs to define minimum likely needed geographic area for DR response Defines ability of CSP to aggregate limited customers into unlimited portfolio To what extent are there offsetting increases in fixed load outside of the summer period which may cause load to be greater than the FSL? Is there weather sensitive winter load that creates load above summer FSL? ©2010 www.monitoringanalytics.com19

20. New Demand Side Products: PRD ©2010 www.monitoringanalytics.com20

21. Introduction Issues in defining PRD: Price setting in emergency conditions Initiation of mandatory curtailment Ratio of peak load/forecast adjustments to Maximum Emergency Service Level for M&V Retail rate contract eligibility Nodal pricing Balancing Operating Reserve deviation exemptions ©2010 www.monitoringanalytics.com21

22. PRD Issues 1.PRD should be modeled as a price taker and required to reduce in any instance when if not for PRD, an emergency event would be called. (This means that PRD load would be required to interrupt prior to max emergency generation) 2.PRD business rules should place specific, minimum requirements on the relationship between retail rates and wholesale nodal prices: o When nodal LMP is > $120, the retail rate must be at least 80 percent of nodal LMP o Nodal pricing of load is a significant change ©2010 www.monitoringanalytics.com22

23. PRD Issues 3.Proposed actual/forecast load adjustment to Maximum Emergency Service Level (MESL) in compliance calculations inconsistent with traditional Firm Service Level (FSL) approach. 4.Balancing Operating Reserve (BOR) deviation charge exemptions should be limited to estimated PRD values using submitted PRD curves and nodal deviation calculations ©2010 www.monitoringanalytics.com23

24. Emergency Event PJM proposal requires all PRD to be curtailed when an emergency event is declared regardless of price level and submitted PRD curves Real-Time LMP will be set by PRD curves even though customer is required to be off the system Creates a disconnect between actual system conditions and the wholesale price signal Results in a higher LMP than would occur if PRD reduced load to avoid capacity obligation independent of program (e.g. if DR participant) Does not consider scenarios in which customer or LSE has incentive to drive up price ©2010 www.monitoringanalytics.com24

25. MMU Position Capacity is procured with a reserve margin to prevent reserve shortages and emergency events for a given future delivery year PRD customers’ reductions are subtracted from the load forecast such that neither capacity nor reserves are procured for PRD load The subtraction of PRD load from load forecast reduces the demand for capacity, reduces RPM clearing price and displaces generating capacity PRD should be called to avoid and relieve emergency events Price levels should reflect the absence of PRD consumption when called to avoid emergencies and throughout emergency events ©2010 www.monitoringanalytics.com25

26. MMU Position Under normal system conditions, PRD is not obligated to reduce but to make real time consumption decisions based on LMP. No penalties should be assessed unless PRD is required to interrupt to avoid emergency conditions. PRD represents a forward agreement by customers to forgo consumption during system stress, regardless of their economic real time demand schedule. Energy Only price responsive customers can and do affect price in emergency situations, which is appropriate since capacity is procured for these customers ©2010 www.monitoringanalytics.com26

27. Rate Contract Eligibility PJM proposes that Price Responsive Demand (PRD) be bid into the energy market daily, and asserts that it will respond economically and provide value to the system outside of an emergency event No penalties are assessed by PJM outside of an emergency event as PRD should by definition face higher prices for consumption when LMP rises. The extent to which this is true depends on the nature of the link between eligible retail rates and wholesale price signals ©2010 www.monitoringanalytics.com27

28. Current Business Rules PJM proposed criteria: “served under a dynamic retail rate structure that can change on an hourly basis, that is linked to or based upon a PJM real-time LMP trigger at an electrical substation location… that results in predictable response to varying wholesale electricity prices” PJM proposed criteria are not adequate to establish the required link between retail and wholesale prices Under PJM proposed criteria, the following is eligible: $20/MWh when nodal LMP is <=$999/MWh $21/MWh when nodal LMP is >=$1,000/MWh ©2010 www.monitoringanalytics.com28

29. Retail and Wholesale Price Link Level of response is dependent upon the strength of linkage between wholesale price and retail price. Failure to adequately specify the link between wholesale and retail prices will result in “capacity only” type product, e.g. DR. For PRD, price signal should be directly proportional to and within a percentage threshold of nodal wholesale price signal Ideal retail price equals nodal wholesale price Any modifications should closely approximate this ideal ©2010 www.monitoringanalytics.com29

30. MMU Proposal Specify minimum conditions for qualifying linkage between wholesale and retail prices: Nodal LMP ($/MWh) threshold above which there must be dynamic and proportional changes in retail price Floor percentage (%) of LMP that retail price must reflect when LMP is above first threshold For example: when nodal LMP is > $ “X”/MWh, retail rate must be “Y” percent of nodal LMP MMU suggest target of 5 percent of hours: When nodal LMP is greater than $120/MWh, the retail rate must be at least 80 percent of nodal LMP. This allows for, but does not require, fixed rates at lower price levels ©2010 www.monitoringanalytics.com30

31. Adjustment to MESL PJM proposes adjustment to Maximum Emergency Service Level (MESL) by the ratio of actual load to forecast, to account for higher load levels than forecasted Inconsistent with traditional FSL approach to Measurement and Verification in which commitment is to reduce to a certain value regardless of actual to forecast ratio Product definitions have different implications: Adjusted MESL approach will ensure proportional capacity charges to consumption ratio Unadjusted MESL approach provides greater assurance of action taken and defined load in capacity event ©2010 www.monitoringanalytics.com31

32. Adjustment to MESL: Example Two identical LSEs in same zone, one with registered PRD ©2010 www.monitoringanalytics.com32 Actual peak load 25 percent higher than forecast:

33. Adjustment to MESL: RPM Implications PJM proposal maintains a proportional relationship between obligation and usage between LSEs, under some assumptions. Unadjusted MESL provides a direct relationship between capacity obligation and usage. In example, LSE 1 pays for 8 MW and reduces usage to exactly 8 MW ©2010 www.monitoringanalytics.com33

34. Adjustment to MESL: M&V Implications Assumption of PJM approach is that fixed portion of PRD customer load will be higher than obligation by the same proportion that actual load is higher than forecast. Is this a valid assumption? Is it reasonable to assume that all load above MESL is curtailable? To the extent that is not true, PRD customers may be found compliant while taking little or no actions in real time. o In example, if LSE 1 were already operating at 10 MW, consistent with PLC obligation, it would be found compliant without reducing usage ©2010 www.monitoringanalytics.com34

35. Adjustment to MESL: Example 2 ©2010 www.monitoringanalytics.com35

36. Balancing Operating Reserve Deviations Issue: PRD is to be bid into Day-Ahead Market, but the retail rate of the end use customer must be tied to Real-Time LMP If PRD clears unreduced quantity in Day-Ahead, but Real-Time LMP is high enough to justify response, that response is subject to a Balancing Operating Reserve (BOR) Deviation charge PJM proposal exempts Load Serving Entities (LSEs) with PRD for deviations from Day-Ahead when Real-Time LMP is greater than Day-Ahead LMP Intent of rule is to eliminate the disincentive to respond in real time when committed Day-Ahead ©2010 www.monitoringanalytics.com36

37. Balancing Operating Reserve Deviations PJM proposal does not estimate MW of PRD included in BOR MW deviations, but exempts all BOR deviation charges in any situation where PRD may have caused the deviation Without a limit on exemption, LSEs with PRD will see arbitrary exemptions and have an incentive to overbid Price Sensitive Demand (PSD) in Day- Ahead Exemption should be limited to the amount of PRD related MW deviation based on the differential between Day Ahead and Real-Time LMP at the pnode and the submitted PRD schedule ©2010 www.monitoringanalytics.com37

38. BOR Deviations: Example Nodal Day-Ahead LMP is $25/MWh but Real-Time LMP is $30/MWh PRD is modeled at this node, and committed in Day Ahead for full bid at $25/MWh. Based on submitted PRD curve, price responsiveness starts at $50/MWh Under PJM proposed business rules, if load in real time less cleared fixed Day-Ahead Load is less than cleared Price Sensitive Demand (PSD), LSE will be exempt from BOR deviation charges Actual lower load in real-time is due to factors other than PRD ©2010 www.monitoringanalytics.com38

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