1. Predictive Models for E. coli on Beaches: Evaluation, Development, and Application Meredith B. Nevers U.S. Geological Survey Great Lakes Science Center Lake Michigan Ecological Research Station Porter, IN

2. Door County, Wisconsin Beaches Assessing the Modeling Potential of Door County, Wisconsin Beaches Location of beaches analyzed: Lake Michigan-9 Green Bay-7 Inland lakes-3 Washington Island-4 Sturgeon Bay-2

3. Comparison of E. coli Counts by Beach Type Number of beaches in analysis: Lake Michigan-9 Green Bay-7 Inland lakes-3 Washington Island-4 Sturgeon Bay-2

4. SE Impact of wind direction on mean E. coli count SE Sandy Bay Beach NW Fish Creek Beach NW Sturgeon Bay

5. Best model: Fish Creek and Otumba Beaches 2004 Potential for Modeling for Door County Beaches Otumba storm outfall 24 hour rainfall water temperature wave height gulls wind speed barometric pressure Fish Creek storm outfall

6. Modeling Two Indiana Beaches Impacted by Two River Outfalls Central Mt. Baldy

7. Precip. (cm) Impact of current direction on E. coli counts at Central Avenue Beach

8. Central Avenue, all winds Mount Baldy, all winds Parameters used: Kintzele Ditch conductivity Wave height Parameters used: Kintzele Ditch conductivity Wave height Barometric pressure Wave period log E. coli =1.408-0.262(baropress)-0.179(KDspcond) +0.364(waveht)-0.153(wvperiod) + error log E. coli = 1.286 -0.132 (KDspcond)+0.336 (waveht)+error Resulting Models

9. Modeling Five Indiana Beaches: Usefulness as a Management Tool Ogden Dunes (OD), West Beach (WB), Wells Street Beach (WS), Marquette Beach (MQ), and Lake Street Beach (LS) OD WB WS MQ LS Burn’s Ditch Easterly wind Westerly wind

10. Impact of Burns Ditch Plume Burns Ditch log E. coli Total precipitation Mean log beach E. coli Westward current Eastward current

11. Project SAFE 9:00 AM Weather Conditions Wind Speed (kts)7-10 Wind DirectionNE Air Temperature (°F)66 Water Temperature (°F)71 Wave Height (ft)2-4 UV Index (forecast)High Burns Ditch Gage height (ft)4.13 Beach Probability of EPA Advisory* Lake St. Beach25-50 % Marquette Park25-50 % Ogden Dunes50-75 % West Beach50-75 % Wells St. Beach25-50 % S wimming A dvisory F orecast E stimate A Pilot Experiment by USGS In Cooperation with NOAA, Gary, IDEM, NPS Monday, August 22, 2005 NWS nearshore marine forecast: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/marine/zone/gtlakes/lotmz.htm S.A.F.E., USGS, Great Lakes Science Center URL: http://www.glsc.usgs.gov/projectSAFE.php *The EPA recommends issuing a swimming advisory when E. coli count exceeds 235 cfu/100ml Ogden Dunes West Beach Marquette Park Wells St. Beach Lake St. Beach

12. Scatterplots of predicted vs. actual E. coli counts at Indiana Beaches in 2004 and 2005 R square for predicted vs. actual E. coli counts for USGS Predictive Modeling and Currently Used Method (EPA) at Indiana Beaches in 2004 and 2005

13. Error for EPA (RSEPA) and USGS (RSGS) for SAFE program, 2004 RMSE (root mean square of the error) values by wind direction North Wind Count RSGS RSEPA RSGS RSEPA Both Winds Count South Wind Count RSGS RSEPA NORTH WIND SOUTH WIND Mean log E. coli

14. Ogden Dunes West Beach Marquette Park Wells St. Beach Lake St. Beach South Wind North Wind Both Winds

15. Related Activities: E. coli surveys and PCR Models provide indication of factors affecting E. coli, questions arise about sources Soil-borne E. coli strains are genetically distinct from potential fecal sources First Discriminant Second Discriminant soils (■), geese (□), terns (●), deer (∆), and gulls (○)

16. Time of sampling influences results B A E. coli from Dunes Creek collected during summer and winter