1. An Adaptive Management Model for the Red River Basin of the North

2. Adaptive Management

3. Elements of Adaptive Management

4. Workshop Sequence

5. Bounding the Problem Actions Human activities and inputs we are interested in manipulating – the “levers” Indicators Critical system outputs that we will use to assess the effects of actions Driving Variables Factors external to system such as weather, commodity prices Space Extent and resolution Time Extent and resolution Actions Human activities and inputs we are interested in manipulating – the “levers” Indicators Critical system outputs that we will use to assess the effects of actions Driving Variables Factors external to system such as weather, commodity prices Space Extent and resolution Time Extent and resolution

7. Adaptive Management Models Dynamic simulation models (not optimizations) Intended to understand system dynamics not generate detailed predictions. Interdisciplinary – look at interactions between hydrology, agriculture, crop diseases etc. Policy relevant “Aids to thinking” - Explore alternative hypotheses and scenarios What if …Climate change, policy change, etc. Dynamic simulation models (not optimizations) Intended to understand system dynamics not generate detailed predictions. Interdisciplinary – look at interactions between hydrology, agriculture, crop diseases etc. Policy relevant “Aids to thinking” - Explore alternative hypotheses and scenarios What if …Climate change, policy change, etc.

8. The Red River Basin of the North

9. Study area (Ecoregions)

10. Red River Basin (~125,000 km2)

11. THEN NOW

13. Digital Elevation Model data

14. Population estimates for the Red River Basin on a 1 km2 grid

15. 1997 Red River Flooding

17. 1997 Flooding at Grand Forks

18. Flood and Fire Damage at Grand Forks

19. St Vincent in 1997 Flood

20. Commodity Price Trends

21. North Dakota Census Data

23. Red River Basin Model

24. Broad Project Objectives To distill from the multiplicity of causal factors a simple systems model that can be used to explore the natural, economic and social dynamics observed in the Red River Basin. To use the model to explore alternative policies with stakeholders and decision makers To distill from the multiplicity of causal factors a simple systems model that can be used to explore the natural, economic and social dynamics observed in the Red River Basin. To use the model to explore alternative policies with stakeholders and decision makers

25. Issues to explore with model Land use interactions with hydrology. Impacts of policies, incentive programs etc. Crop diseases in response to cropping patterns. Feasibility of alternate crops and crop rotations. Water quality issues. Impacts of climate change. Land use interactions with wildlife. Land use interactions with hydrology. Impacts of policies, incentive programs etc. Crop diseases in response to cropping patterns. Feasibility of alternate crops and crop rotations. Water quality issues. Impacts of climate change. Land use interactions with wildlife.

26. Detailed Objectives of first Phase Explore initial sub models for: Farm economics Crop diseases Crop production Driving weather/climate variables Hydrology routine to generate inputs to other models Etc … Framework for linking sub-models at the basin level. Initial compilation of datasets at the basin level. Plan for continued of model development and analysis. Explore initial sub models for: Farm economics Crop diseases Crop production Driving weather/climate variables Hydrology routine to generate inputs to other models Etc … Framework for linking sub-models at the basin level. Initial compilation of datasets at the basin level. Plan for continued of model development and analysis.

27. Conceptual Model

28. Draft (!) Balaton Conceptual Model

29. Styles of Modelling

30. Current Model Status

31. Hydrologic Units

32. STATSGO and CANSIS Soils data

33. Administrative areas (counties, rural municipalities)

34. Land Cover for the Red River Basin USGS Land Use/Land Cover System Legend (Modified Level 2) Value Code Class Name 1 100 Urban and Built-Up Land 2 211 Dryland Cropland and Pasture 3 212 Irrigated Cropland and Pasture 4 213 Mixed Dryland/Irrigated Cropland and Pasture 5 280 Cropland/Grassland Mosaic 6 290 Cropland/Woodland Mosaic 7 311 Grassland 8 321 Shrubland 9 330 Mixed Shrubland/Grassland 10 332 Savanna 11 411 Deciduous Broadleaf Forest 12 412 Deciduous Needleleaf Forest 13 421 Evergreen Broadleaf Forest 14 422 Evergreen Needleleaf Forest 15 430 Mixed Forest 16 500 Water Bodies 17 620 Herbaceous Wetland 18 610 Wooded Wetland 19 770 Barren or Sparsely Vegetated 20 820 Herbaceous Tundra 21 810 Wooded Tundra 22 850 Mixed Tundra 23 830 Bare Ground Tundra 24 900 Snow or Ice 100 NO DATA

35. Ecoregions relevant to the Red River Basin

36. Locations of centers of VEMAP weather cells

37. Spatial Representation

38. Nested Time Steps

39. Model developed for Windows PC Visual Basic Microsoft Access Uses ArcView 3.2 at present for mapping Uses Excel for chart and tabular output Model developed for Windows PC Visual Basic Microsoft Access Uses ArcView 3.2 at present for mapping Uses Excel for chart and tabular output Implementation

40. Various run time options Weather data options Can vary scope of model Critical to manage indicators … Various run time options Weather data options Can vary scope of model Critical to manage indicators … Running the Model

41. Multiple saved scenarios Indicators at various time steps and spatial resolutions View maps at a time View charts/tables for one or more spatial units or indicators Multiple saved scenarios Indicators at various time steps and spatial resolutions View maps at a time View charts/tables for one or more spatial units or indicators Viewing outputs

42. Hydrology Sub-model Initial model implemented Penman Monteith Equation Some model analysis completed Model has not yet been refined based on observations Initial model implemented Penman Monteith Equation Some model analysis completed Model has not yet been refined based on observations

43. Example Model Output

44. Water contributed to flow from different hydrologic units in June

45. Tension soil water in May

46. Tension soil water available in August

47. Flow at Fargo

48. 100 year base run Flows at Grand Forks 100 year base run Flows at Grand Forks

49. 100 year base run Flows at Grand Forks (Moving Average) 100 year base run Flows at Grand Forks (Moving Average)

50. 100 year base run Flows at Grand Forks (Moving Average) 100 year base run Flows at Grand Forks (Moving Average)

52. Effects of Vegetation on flow (A crude analysis!) Effects of Vegetation on flow (A crude analysis!)

53. Summary Simple integrated systems model Include both “hard science” such as hydrology with less certain aspects Developed in a stakeholder process Explicit recognition of uncertainties Focus is not on prediction Model used to explore different scenarios (What if …) Simple integrated systems model Include both “hard science” such as hydrology with less certain aspects Developed in a stakeholder process Explicit recognition of uncertainties Focus is not on prediction Model used to explore different scenarios (What if …)