1. Emerging Models for Human Dimensions Breakout Session

2. There seems to be a debate about whether impacts community would actually use downscaled results to plan locally (given the “structural uncertainties”). What is the reasoning behind actually trying to integrate HD modeling into the larger Arctic system model? Answer: Feedbacks are important; sensitivity analyses of socioeconomic model outputs (coming from physical science inputs) could prioritize future physical science research. Are these models going to address future population and carrying capacity dynamics? What about different adaptation scenarios within/across HD sectors? They should. Misc. Thoughts

3. Just like physical science, HD modeling needs to analyze future impacts at multiple time scales ranging from shorter-term (weeks, months, fiscal years) to longer-term (decades) planning horizons. Adaptation assumptions, including education, are important things to consider in HD analyses. It was noted that short-term forecasts may have a low signal-to-noise ratio (i.e., these forecasts are dominated by natural variability). There is a time scale gap between short-term forecasting and projecting long-term impacts. Misc. Thoughts (cont.)

4. Extreme events are driving impacts not long-term changes in the mean temperature/precipitation/etc…… Should we focus on particular sectors? Concrete projects are much better for fruitful interdisciplinary research than philosophical/abstract brainstorming sessions. There is a concern about interdisciplinary HD research occurring across the Arctic. “International exchange programs for old guys” was a suggestion. Insurance industry response to climate change was identified as a impact sector that may be open for research partnerships, etc. Misc. Thoughts (cont.)

5. It would be useful to train social scientists in Arctic physical science, but also vice versa. This is a huge undertaking, though….. Coming up with one specific HD problem (or a case study) is very important for interdisciplinary researchers to get traction on overcoming the systematic/cultural issues across research genres….. Impacts to water resources seems to be an early candidate for a HD module to incorporate within the ASM. Incorporating risk analyses on this impact category (i.e., likelihood estimation/probabilities) could be useful for the financial/insurance industry. Where to go from here? Is there a boilerplate HD modeling approach that could be used to estimate impacts for multiple sectors?