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© K. Fedra 2000 1 Risk Assessment and Management technological and environmental risk analysis as a spatial DSS example.

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Presentation on theme: "© K. Fedra 2000 1 Risk Assessment and Management technological and environmental risk analysis as a spatial DSS example."— Presentation transcript:

1 © K. Fedra 2000 1 Risk Assessment and Management technological and environmental risk analysis as a spatial DSS example

2 © K. Fedra 2000 2 What is Risk ?  the probability

3 © K. Fedra 2000 3 What is Risk ?  the probability of incurring a loss or injury of incurring a loss or injury  the probability of incurring a loss or injury of incurring a loss or injury

4 © K. Fedra 2000 4 Different types of Risk: voluntary or involuntaryvoluntary or involuntary high-probability, low-consequencehigh-probability, low-consequence low-probability, high-consequencelow-probability, high-consequence individual or societalindividual or societal environmental or technologicalenvironmental or technological voluntary or involuntaryvoluntary or involuntary high-probability, low-consequencehigh-probability, low-consequence low-probability, high-consequencelow-probability, high-consequence individual or societalindividual or societal environmental or technologicalenvironmental or technological

5 © K. Fedra 2000 5 Different types of Risk Management: inactive (ignore it) inactive (ignore it) reactive (abatement) reactive (abatement) interactive (management) interactive (management) proactive (planning) proactive (planning) inactive (ignore it) inactive (ignore it) reactive (abatement) reactive (abatement) interactive (management) interactive (management) proactive (planning) proactive (planning)

6 © K. Fedra 2000 6 Different types of Risk Management: risk assessment and planning risk assessment and planning identify, forecast, analyse, plan identify, forecast, analyse, plan operational risk abatement operational risk abatement detect, diagnose, correct detect, diagnose, correct risk assessment and planning risk assessment and planning identify, forecast, analyse, plan identify, forecast, analyse, plan operational risk abatement operational risk abatement detect, diagnose, correct detect, diagnose, correct

7 © K. Fedra 2000 7 Estimating Risks A Gaming approach: probability of winning, probability of winning, amount to win, amount to win, probability of losing, probability of losing, amount to lose. amount to lose. A Gaming approach: probability of winning, probability of winning, amount to win, amount to win, probability of losing, probability of losing, amount to lose. amount to lose.

8 © K. Fedra 2000 8 Estimating Risks Expected value:  probability of loss or damage  magnitude of the loss V exp = p(D) * V(D) V exp = p(D) * V(D) Expected value:  probability of loss or damage  magnitude of the loss V exp = p(D) * V(D) V exp = p(D) * V(D)

9 © K. Fedra 2000 9 Estimating Risks Some problems: risk is about the unexpected: this means large inherent uncertaintiesrisk is about the unexpected: this means large inherent uncertainties low probability means little datalow probability means little data insurance can be expensive, consider the opportunity costsinsurance can be expensive, consider the opportunity costs Some problems: risk is about the unexpected: this means large inherent uncertaintiesrisk is about the unexpected: this means large inherent uncertainties low probability means little datalow probability means little data insurance can be expensive, consider the opportunity costsinsurance can be expensive, consider the opportunity costs

10 © K. Fedra 2000 10 Environmental risks floods and droughtsfloods and droughts hurricanes, typhoonshurricanes, typhoons earthquakes, tsunamisearthquakes, tsunamis mudslides, avalanchesmudslides, avalanches forest firesforest fires toxic fumes (Cameroon)toxic fumes (Cameroon) climate change, sea level riseclimate change, sea level rise floods and droughtsfloods and droughts hurricanes, typhoonshurricanes, typhoons earthquakes, tsunamisearthquakes, tsunamis mudslides, avalanchesmudslides, avalanches forest firesforest fires toxic fumes (Cameroon)toxic fumes (Cameroon) climate change, sea level riseclimate change, sea level rise

11 © K. Fedra 2000 11 Technological risks fires and explosionsfires and explosions toxic chemicals releasetoxic chemicals release - from process plants - from process plants - from transportation accidents - from transportation accidents oil spillsoil spills nuclear accidentsnuclear accidents fires and explosionsfires and explosions toxic chemicals releasetoxic chemicals release - from process plants - from process plants - from transportation accidents - from transportation accidents oil spillsoil spills nuclear accidentsnuclear accidents

12 © K. Fedra 2000 12 Technological risks dioxin release (Seveso, 1976)dioxin release (Seveso, 1976) gas explosion (Mexico, 1984)gas explosion (Mexico, 1984) methylisocyanate (Bhopal, 1984)methylisocyanate (Bhopal, 1984) toxic spill (River Rhine, 1986)toxic spill (River Rhine, 1986) Chernobyl (reactor meltdown)Chernobyl (reactor meltdown) Amocco Cadiz, Exxon ValdezAmocco Cadiz, Exxon Valdez (Oils spills) (Oils spills) dioxin release (Seveso, 1976)dioxin release (Seveso, 1976) gas explosion (Mexico, 1984)gas explosion (Mexico, 1984) methylisocyanate (Bhopal, 1984)methylisocyanate (Bhopal, 1984) toxic spill (River Rhine, 1986)toxic spill (River Rhine, 1986) Chernobyl (reactor meltdown)Chernobyl (reactor meltdown) Amocco Cadiz, Exxon ValdezAmocco Cadiz, Exxon Valdez (Oils spills) (Oils spills)

13 © K. Fedra 2000 13 Industrial Safety Review Leadership and AdministrationLeadership and Administration Management and TrainingManagement and Training Job Analysis and ProceduresJob Analysis and Procedures Emergency PreparednessEmergency Preparedness Accident/Incident AnalysisAccident/Incident Analysis Employee TrainingEmployee Training Safety and Protective EquipmentSafety and Protective Equipment Leadership and AdministrationLeadership and Administration Management and TrainingManagement and Training Job Analysis and ProceduresJob Analysis and Procedures Emergency PreparednessEmergency Preparedness Accident/Incident AnalysisAccident/Incident Analysis Employee TrainingEmployee Training Safety and Protective EquipmentSafety and Protective Equipment

14 © K. Fedra 2000 14 Facility Emergency Response Plant Emergency OrganizationPlant Emergency Organization Plant Risk EvaluationPlant Risk Evaluation Area Risk EvaluationArea Risk Evaluation Notification Procedures, CommunicationNotification Procedures, Communication Emergency Equipment and FacilitiesEmergency Equipment and Facilities Procedure for return to normal operationsProcedure for return to normal operations Plant Emergency OrganizationPlant Emergency Organization Plant Risk EvaluationPlant Risk Evaluation Area Risk EvaluationArea Risk Evaluation Notification Procedures, CommunicationNotification Procedures, Communication Emergency Equipment and FacilitiesEmergency Equipment and Facilities Procedure for return to normal operationsProcedure for return to normal operations

15 © K. Fedra 2000 15 Facility Emergency Response Plant Emergency OrganizationPlant Emergency Organization Plant Risk EvaluationPlant Risk Evaluation Area Risk EvaluationArea Risk Evaluation Notification Procedures, CommunicationNotification Procedures, Communication Emergency Equipment and FacilitiesEmergency Equipment and Facilities Procedure for return to normal operationsProcedure for return to normal operations Plant Emergency OrganizationPlant Emergency Organization Plant Risk EvaluationPlant Risk Evaluation Area Risk EvaluationArea Risk Evaluation Notification Procedures, CommunicationNotification Procedures, Communication Emergency Equipment and FacilitiesEmergency Equipment and Facilities Procedure for return to normal operationsProcedure for return to normal operations

16 © K. Fedra 2000 16 Facility Emergency Response Plant Risk Evaluation quantities, locations, and storage conditions of hazardous materialsquantities, locations, and storage conditions of hazardous materials properties of materials (MSD sheets)properties of materials (MSD sheets) location of isolation valveslocation of isolation valves fire fighting proceduresfire fighting procedures special handling requirementsspecial handling requirements Plant Risk Evaluation quantities, locations, and storage conditions of hazardous materialsquantities, locations, and storage conditions of hazardous materials properties of materials (MSD sheets)properties of materials (MSD sheets) location of isolation valveslocation of isolation valves fire fighting proceduresfire fighting procedures special handling requirementsspecial handling requirements

17 © K. Fedra 2000 17 Plant risk evaluation Site data base includes basic administrative, technical, regulatory and safety relevant information: and safety relevant information: hazardous chemicals hazardous chemicals safety response plans safety response plans and equipment and equipment Site data base includes basic administrative, technical, regulatory and safety relevant information: and safety relevant information: hazardous chemicals hazardous chemicals safety response plans safety response plans and equipment and equipment

18 © K. Fedra 2000 18 Site data base examples

19 © K. Fedra 2000 19 Site data base examples

20 © K. Fedra 2000 20 Site data base examples

21 © K. Fedra 2000 21 Site data base examples

22 © K. Fedra 2000 22 Plant risk evaluation Hazardous chemicals data base includes substance identification data (names, synonyms, CAS, UN number), physical, chemical, and toxicological properties, associates production associates production processes and waste processes and waste streams. streams. Hazardous chemicals data base includes substance identification data (names, synonyms, CAS, UN number), physical, chemical, and toxicological properties, associates production associates production processes and waste processes and waste streams. streams.

23 © K. Fedra 2000 23 Hazardous chemicals DB

24 © K. Fedra 2000 24 Hazardous chemicals DB

25 © K. Fedra 2000 25 Facility Emergency Response Plant Emergency OrganizationPlant Emergency Organization Plant Risk EvaluationPlant Risk Evaluation Area Risk EvaluationArea Risk Evaluation Notification Procedures, CommunicationNotification Procedures, Communication Emergency Equipment and FacilitiesEmergency Equipment and Facilities Procedure for return to normal operationsProcedure for return to normal operations

26 © K. Fedra 2000 26 Facility Emergency Response Area Risk Evaluation hazardous materials at nearby plantshazardous materials at nearby plants nearby residences, population centers including schools, hospitals, nursing homes (evacuation procedures)nearby residences, population centers including schools, hospitals, nursing homes (evacuation procedures) contacts at other sites (names, phone)contacts at other sites (names, phone) notification proceduresnotification procedures Area Risk Evaluation hazardous materials at nearby plantshazardous materials at nearby plants nearby residences, population centers including schools, hospitals, nursing homes (evacuation procedures)nearby residences, population centers including schools, hospitals, nursing homes (evacuation procedures) contacts at other sites (names, phone)contacts at other sites (names, phone) notification proceduresnotification procedures

27 © K. Fedra 2000 27 Hazards Analysis a spatial approach: evaluates the vulnerability of a geographical area, its population and environment to technological risks (e.g., hazardous materials release from process plants or transportation accidents)evaluates the vulnerability of a geographical area, its population and environment to technological risks (e.g., hazardous materials release from process plants or transportation accidents) a spatial approach: evaluates the vulnerability of a geographical area, its population and environment to technological risks (e.g., hazardous materials release from process plants or transportation accidents)evaluates the vulnerability of a geographical area, its population and environment to technological risks (e.g., hazardous materials release from process plants or transportation accidents)

28 © K. Fedra 2000 28 Hazards Analysis Checklist Has a hazards analysis been completed for this area ? Has a hazards analysis been completed for this area ? When was it last updated ? When was it last updated ? Does the analysis include the location, type, and amount of hazardous materials manufactured, processed, stored, disposed within the area ? Does the analysis include the location, type, and amount of hazardous materials manufactured, processed, stored, disposed within the area ? Has a hazards analysis been completed for this area ? Has a hazards analysis been completed for this area ? When was it last updated ? When was it last updated ? Does the analysis include the location, type, and amount of hazardous materials manufactured, processed, stored, disposed within the area ? Does the analysis include the location, type, and amount of hazardous materials manufactured, processed, stored, disposed within the area ?

29 © K. Fedra 2000 29 Hazards Analysis Checklist Does it include transportation routes of hazardous materials ? Does it include transportation routes of hazardous materials ? Have areas of public health concern be identified ? Have areas of public health concern be identified ? Have sensitive environmental areas been identified ? Have sensitive environmental areas been identified ? Does it include transportation routes of hazardous materials ? Does it include transportation routes of hazardous materials ? Have areas of public health concern be identified ? Have areas of public health concern be identified ? Have sensitive environmental areas been identified ? Have sensitive environmental areas been identified ?

30 © K. Fedra 2000 30 Hazards Analysis Checklist Have historical data on accidents been collected and analyzed ? Have historical data on accidents been collected and analyzed ? Have levels of vulnerability been identified for different areas ? Have levels of vulnerability been identified for different areas ? Are environmentally sensitive areas and population centers included in plant and transportation risk assessment ? Are environmentally sensitive areas and population centers included in plant and transportation risk assessment ? Have historical data on accidents been collected and analyzed ? Have historical data on accidents been collected and analyzed ? Have levels of vulnerability been identified for different areas ? Have levels of vulnerability been identified for different areas ? Are environmentally sensitive areas and population centers included in plant and transportation risk assessment ? Are environmentally sensitive areas and population centers included in plant and transportation risk assessment ?

31 © K. Fedra 2000 31 Application examples: simulation of atmospheric dispersion of toxic substances from transportation or process plant accidents.simulation of atmospheric dispersion of toxic substances from transportation or process plant accidents. uses local geographical, land use, anduses local geographical, land use, and and population data to and population data to estimate exposure and estimate exposure and simulate evacuation simulate evacuation plans. plans. simulation of atmospheric dispersion of toxic substances from transportation or process plant accidents.simulation of atmospheric dispersion of toxic substances from transportation or process plant accidents. uses local geographical, land use, anduses local geographical, land use, and and population data to and population data to estimate exposure and estimate exposure and simulate evacuation simulate evacuation plans. plans.

32 © K. Fedra 2000 32 Atmospheric release:

33 © K. Fedra 2000 33 Application examples: simulation of aquatic spills of toxics.simulation of aquatic spills of toxics. uses chemical properties together with hydrological data, estimates the concentration of the chemical along theuses chemical properties together with hydrological data, estimates the concentration of the chemical along the river and over time. river and over time. Can use an embedded Can use an embedded expert system to expert system to estimate environmental estimate environmental damage. damage. simulation of aquatic spills of toxics.simulation of aquatic spills of toxics. uses chemical properties together with hydrological data, estimates the concentration of the chemical along theuses chemical properties together with hydrological data, estimates the concentration of the chemical along the river and over time. river and over time. Can use an embedded Can use an embedded expert system to expert system to estimate environmental estimate environmental damage. damage.

34 © K. Fedra 2000 34 Aquatic spill:

35 © K. Fedra 2000 35 Risk Planning: Regulatory frameworks safety audits, regular inspectionssafety audits, regular inspections chemicals registrychemicals registry waste managementwaste management transportationtransportation safety safety emergencyemergency planning planning zoningzoning safety audits, regular inspectionssafety audits, regular inspections chemicals registrychemicals registry waste managementwaste management transportationtransportation safety safety emergencyemergency planning planning zoningzoning

36 © K. Fedra 2000 36 Regulatory frameworks European Union: The Directive on Major Accident Hazards of Certain Industrial Activities (Seveso Directive) Council Directive of June 24, 1982 (82/501/EEC), Official Journal of the European Communities, L230, Vol.25, August 5, 1982. European Union: The Directive on Major Accident Hazards of Certain Industrial Activities (Seveso Directive) Council Directive of June 24, 1982 (82/501/EEC), Official Journal of the European Communities, L230, Vol.25, August 5, 1982.

37 © K. Fedra 2000 37 Seveso Directive Background: industrial accidents (Seveso, Flixborough) characterised by a lack of information (substances and amounts involved) by the local authorities, and lack of emergency planning. Background: industrial accidents (Seveso, Flixborough) characterised by a lack of information (substances and amounts involved) by the local authorities, and lack of emergency planning.

38 © K. Fedra 2000 38 Seveso Directive Objective: improve the generation and control of correct information flow among the actors in the risk management procedure (industrial activities that process or store hazardous materials). Objective:

39 © K. Fedra 2000 39 Seveso Directive Provisions: states must appoint a competent authoritystates must appoint a competent authority operators must prove to the CAoperators must prove to the CA – major hazards have been identified – safety measures have been taken to prevent accidents Provisions: states must appoint a competent authoritystates must appoint a competent authority operators must prove to the CAoperators must prove to the CA – major hazards have been identified – safety measures have been taken to prevent accidents

40 © K. Fedra 2000 40 Seveso Directive when hazardous substance inventories exceed thresholds: operator provides CA with Safety Reportoperator provides CA with Safety Report prepares internal emergency planprepares internal emergency plan provides information to CA for off-site emergency planprovides information to CA for off-site emergency plan CA is notified of any major modificationCA is notified of any major modification when hazardous substance inventories exceed thresholds: operator provides CA with Safety Reportoperator provides CA with Safety Report prepares internal emergency planprepares internal emergency plan provides information to CA for off-site emergency planprovides information to CA for off-site emergency plan CA is notified of any major modificationCA is notified of any major modification

41 © K. Fedra 2000 41 Seveso Directive CA provides for external emergency planningCA provides for external emergency planning states ensure that people potentially affected by an accidents are actively informed on safety measuresstates ensure that people potentially affected by an accidents are actively informed on safety measures operators report any major accidentoperators report any major accident states notify the Commissionstates notify the Commission Commission keeps a register of accidentsCommission keeps a register of accidents CA provides for external emergency planningCA provides for external emergency planning states ensure that people potentially affected by an accidents are actively informed on safety measuresstates ensure that people potentially affected by an accidents are actively informed on safety measures operators report any major accidentoperators report any major accident states notify the Commissionstates notify the Commission Commission keeps a register of accidentsCommission keeps a register of accidents

42 © K. Fedra 2000 42 Risk Assessment Zoning and Zoning and land-use land-use planning planning based on based on external external safety safety report. report. Zoning and Zoning and land-use land-use planning planning based on based on external external safety safety report. report.

43 © K. Fedra 2000 43 Risk Assessment Risk contours around a plant location: 10 -6 events/year 10 -6 events/year unacceptable unacceptable individual risk individual risk 10 -8 events/year 10 -8 events/year negligible risk negligible risk Risk contours around a plant location: 10 -6 events/year 10 -6 events/year unacceptable unacceptable individual risk individual risk 10 -8 events/year 10 -8 events/year negligible risk negligible risk

44 © K. Fedra 2000 44 Risk Assessment Risk levels (the Dutch perspective) 10 -4 events/year: voluntarily accepted in daily life daily life 10 -5 events/year: maximum tolerable total involuntary risk total involuntary risk 10 -6 events/year: unacceptable involuntary from a single source from a single source 10 -8 events/year: negligible risk Risk levels (the Dutch perspective) 10 -4 events/year: voluntarily accepted in daily life daily life 10 -5 events/year: maximum tolerable total involuntary risk total involuntary risk 10 -6 events/year: unacceptable involuntary from a single source from a single source 10 -8 events/year: negligible risk

45 © K. Fedra 2000 45 Risk analysis procedure Hazard identificationHazard identification Accident frequency and consequence estimationAccident frequency and consequence estimation Risk calculationRisk calculation Risk reduction and acceptabilityRisk reduction and acceptability Hazard identificationHazard identification Accident frequency and consequence estimationAccident frequency and consequence estimation Risk calculationRisk calculation Risk reduction and acceptabilityRisk reduction and acceptability

46 © K. Fedra 2000 46 Risk analysis procedure Hazard Identification (HAZID) Process/system checklistProcess/system checklist Safety reviewSafety review Preliminary Hazard AnalysisPreliminary Hazard Analysis Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA)Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) Hazard and Operability Analysis (HAZOP)Hazard and Operability Analysis (HAZOP) Systematic Identification of Release PointsSystematic Identification of Release Points Hazard Identification (HAZID) Process/system checklistProcess/system checklist Safety reviewSafety review Preliminary Hazard AnalysisPreliminary Hazard Analysis Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA)Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) Hazard and Operability Analysis (HAZOP)Hazard and Operability Analysis (HAZOP) Systematic Identification of Release PointsSystematic Identification of Release Points

47 © K. Fedra 2000 47 Risk analysis procedure Frequency and Consequence Estimation: Fault treeFault tree Event treeEvent tree Cause Consequence DiagramCause Consequence Diagram Generic Reliability DatabaseGeneric Reliability Database Frequency and Consequence Estimation: Fault treeFault tree Event treeEvent tree Cause Consequence DiagramCause Consequence Diagram Generic Reliability DatabaseGeneric Reliability Database

48 © K. Fedra 2000 48 Risk analysis procedure Fault tree analysis: run-away reaction due to cooling failure

49 © K. Fedra 2000 49 Risk analysis procedure Failure of: heating system sensor shutdown system cooling system safety valve Failure of: heating system sensor shutdown system cooling system safety valve

50 © K. Fedra 2000 50 Risk analysis procedure Event tree: traces possible events from loss of cooling to: safe shutdown loss of cooling to: safe shutdown discharge from discharge from safety valve safety valve explosion explosion Event tree: traces possible events from loss of cooling to: safe shutdown loss of cooling to: safe shutdown discharge from discharge from safety valve safety valve explosion explosion

51 © K. Fedra 2000 51 Risk analysis procedure Every event A has possible outcome C (with probability: p) and B (1-p) C (with probability: p) and B (1-p) depending depending on failure on failure probability probability Every event A has possible outcome C (with probability: p) and B (1-p) C (with probability: p) and B (1-p) depending depending on failure on failure probability probability

52 © K. Fedra 2000 52 Risk analysis procedure Consequences: discharge (flow, evaporation)discharge (flow, evaporation) fire: jet, pool/tank, flash, fireballfire: jet, pool/tank, flash, fireball explosion and release:explosion and release: –unconfined vapor cloud (UVCE) –boiling liquid expanding vapor explosion (BLEVE) –physical explosion –runaway reaction explosion –dust gas/dust mixture explosion Consequences: discharge (flow, evaporation)discharge (flow, evaporation) fire: jet, pool/tank, flash, fireballfire: jet, pool/tank, flash, fireball explosion and release:explosion and release: –unconfined vapor cloud (UVCE) –boiling liquid expanding vapor explosion (BLEVE) –physical explosion –runaway reaction explosion –dust gas/dust mixture explosion


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