1. NACLIM annual meeting – 1/10/2013 1 North Atlantic Ocean climate variability and its impact on heat stress exposure in urban areas: case studies and user requirements Catherine Stevens, Project manager and GIS expert, GIM

2. Agenda UHI and mapping heat impact on health: brief reminder Selection of 3 end users: short description June 2013 - 1st end user: Berlin and Antwerp September 2013 - Meeting the 3rd end user: Almada Work in progress and planning NACLIM annual meeting – 1/10/20132

3. Agenda UHI and mapping heat impact on health: brief reminder Selection of 3 end users: short description June 2013 - 1st end user : Berlin and Antwerp September 2013 - Meeting the 3rd end user : Almada Work in progress and planning NACLIM annual meeting – 1/10/20133

4. UHI prediction CMIP5 UrbClim socio-economic health effects heat stress exposure stratified by population, housing conditions, etc… city selection observations NACLIM annual meeting – 1/10/20134 UHI and mapping heat impact on health

5. Heat stress High temperatures and humidity stress the body's ability to cool itself, and heat illness becomes a special concern during hot weather. Some factors increase the risk of heat stress –Old people –Single –Sick –Being hospitalized –… Heat stress depends on several factors NACLIM annual meeting – 1/10/20135 UHI and mapping heat impact on health

6. Climatic parameters –Temperature (e.g. apparent max t°) and humidity –Temperature variability (day max t°, night min t°, interval, duration) –Wind speed and direction… Urban morphology parameters –City centre vs residential area –Green area and water place –Open space, street canyon –Buildings variables (material, albedo, orientation…)… Demographic, socio-economic and health parameters –Age and gender –Marital Status –Economic status and educational level –Health conditions, medication and disease… NACLIM annual meeting – 1/10/20136

7. UHI and mapping heat impact on health Results of Urban Heat Island model + Exposure indicators (Climatic, Urban morphology, Demographic / Socio-economic, Health) Exposure Maps NACLIM annual meeting – 1/10/20137

8. UHI and mapping heat impact on health Indoor thermal condition in urban heat island – development of a predictive tool, Parham A. Mirzaeia, Fariborz Haghighata NACLIM annual meeting – 1/10/20138

9. UHI and mapping heat impact on health Map of the statistical district of Melbourne showing the weighted vulnerability index for each postal area, on hot days –Combined demographic, socioeconomic, health, environmental variables  vulnerability index NACLIM annual meeting – 1/10/20139 http://www.hindawi.com/journals/ijpr/2012/518687

10. Agenda UHI and mapping heat impact on health: brief reminder Selection of 3 end users: short description June 2013 - 1st end user : Berlin and Antwerp September 2013 - Meeting the 3rd end user : Almada Work in progress and planning NACLIM annual meeting – 1/10/201310

11. Selection of 3 end users Selection of number of relevant stakeholders –Interested in benefiting from an analysis of the impacts of climate change on their urban dimension  Three European cities –Antwerp (BE) –Berlin (DE) –Almada (PT) NACLIM annual meeting – 1/10/201311

12. Selection of 3 end users Antwerp (BE) −Major port −Population density 2,500/km 2 −20% green and blue urban areas −Maritime temperate climate Berlin (DE) −Metropolis counting 3.5 million inhabitants −Population density 3,700/km 2 −20-29 % green and blue urban areas −Warm-Summer Continental climate Almada (PT) −Small city densely populated −Nearby Lisbon metropolis −Population density is 2,355 / km 2 −Mediterranean climate and close to Atlantic ocean NACLIM annual meeting – 1/10/201312

13. Agenda UHI and mapping heat impact on health: brief reminder Selection of 3 end users: short description June 2013 - 1st end user : Berlin and Antwerp September 2013 - Meeting the 3rd end user : Almada Work in progress and planning NACLIM annual meeting – 1/10/201313

14. June 2013 - 1st end user : Berlin and Antwerp Themes and services identified –Scenario linked to urban planning: the effect of UHI today and in the future on urban planning –Scenario using existing urban plans/projects Impacts of green roofs linked to green roof potential map/plan (2030-2040) Impacts of change albedo (reflectivity) of buildings (roofs…) … –Scenario using projected population figures Densification population and new settlements Vulnerable population (school and old people) … –Impact of city expansion on climate change (e.g. projected LULC) NACLIM: Almada end-user workshop - 24-25/09/201314

15. June 2013 - 1st end user : Berlin and Antwerp Time frame to be used in simulation are –Current situation (2000-2010) –Mid term (2030-2040) –Long term prediction (2100) Resolution vs extent –Larger extent (full city) with 250 m resolution –Smaller extent (part of city) with 100 m resolution Seasonal studies Summer “Winter” NACLIM: Almada end-user workshop - 24-25/09/201315

16. June 2013 - 1st end user : Berlin and Antwerp NACLIM annual meeting – 1/10/201316

17. Agenda UHI and mapping heat impact on health: brief reminder Selection of 3 end users: short description June 2013 - 1st end user : Berlin and Antwerp September 2013 - Meeting the 3rd end user : Almada Work in progress and planning NACLIM annual meeting – 1/10/201317

18. September 2013 : Almada end user workshop Themes and services identified –Identify hotspots in city –Population exposure to heat waves For ex. Last summer heat wave (2013) – Prediction/projection for 2100 as a help to downscale adaptation –Possible to identify 3 spots in the city for high resolution study to make diagnose  out of the scope of NACLIM NACLIM: Almada end-user workshop report - 24-25/09/201318

19. September 2013 : Almada end user workshop Almada meteorological station visit NACLIM: Almada end-user workshop report - 24-25/09/201319

20. Agenda UHI and mapping heat impact on health: brief reminder Selection of 3 end users: short description June 2013 - 1st end user: Berlin and Antwerp September 2013 - Meeting the 3rd end user: Almada Work in progress and planning NACLIM annual meeting – 1/10/201320

21. Work in progress UHI modelling: UrbClim pre-processing input data –Variables/parameters Current work : –Planar area Index (PAI): proportion of area covered by buildings per grid cell –Frontal area indexes (FAI): area of buildings projected into the plane normal to the incoming wind direction and is a function of orientation per grid cell –Average building height weighted with the building area and its variance –Sky view factor (SVF) Outstanding work:% urban land use, land use type, % vegetation … NACLIM annual meeting – 1/10/201321

22. Work in progress Berlin end-user case –Available data 3D building layers Street network –Study extent = Vito grid Not full building coverage –Extrapolation of PAI and FAI  Evaluation of relationship at 1km resolution between EEA SS and PAI/FAI NACLIM annual meeting – 1/10/201322

23. Work in progress PAI and EEA SS NACLIM annual meeting – 1/10/201323

24. Work in progress EEA SS and PAI Relationship NACLIM annual meeting – 1/10/201324

25. Work in progress FAI and EEA SS NACLIM annual meeting – 1/10/201325

26. Work in progress NACLIM annual meeting – 1/10/201326 EEA SS and PAI Relationship

27. Work in progress PAI Extrapolation on the full coverage NACLIM annual meeting – 1/10/201327

28. Planning NACLIM annual meeting – 1/10/201328

29. NACLIM: Almada end-user workshop - 24-25/09/201329 Questions? Don’t hesitate to ask! GIM nv/sa Researchpark Haasrode 1505 Interleuvenlaan 5 B-3001 Leuven (Heverlee) tel: +32 16 40 30 39 fax: +32 16 40 69 39 e-mail: info@gim.beinfo@gim.be website: www.gim.be

30. The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union 7th Framework Programme (FP7 2007-2013), under grant agreement n.308299 NACLIM www.naclim.euwww.naclim.eu NACLIM annual meeting – 1/10/201330