1. JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER 2010 YEAR IN REVIEW Mr. Robert (Bob) Falvey Director, Joint Typhoon Warning Center 65th INTERDEPARTMENTAL HURRICANE CONFERENCE 28 FEB – 3 MAR 2011 MIAMI, FL Super Typhoon Megi 2001010170833 DMSP F-17 Visible

2. MISSION Provide tropical cyclone reconnaissance, analysis, forecast and warning support for Department of Defense, and other US Government assets in the Pacific and Indian Oceans as established by Commander, United States Pacific Command.

3. 2010 SATELLITE RECON (Fixes by Agency) 113 343 86 94 41 93 42 (Total: 10,037)

4. 2010 SATELLITE RECON (JTWC (PGTW) Fixes ) (Total: 6,334) Total Microwave Fixes: 3,136 (49.5% of total)

5. 5 ANNUAL TC ACTIVITY (All Basins / All Intensities) Year Number of Cyclones

6. 2010 NORTH INDIAN OCEAN

7. 2010 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE

8. 2010 WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC Tropical Depressions: 5 Tropical Storms: 5 Typhoons: 8 Super Typhoons: 1 (Megi) Lowest number of warned cyclones in JTWC record

9. 2010 JTWC TRACK ERRORS (All Basins) 29672232 26363205 22853174 62658 1001183 14822115 20042152

10. JTWC TRACK ERRORS 24 Hr 48 Hr 72 Hr 2006 64 106 151 2007 61 100 147 2008 66120 198 2009 65122 183 2010 60 99 152 *Goal: 25 50 75 (Western North Pacific - 24-72 Hours)

11. JTWC TRACK ERRORS 96 Hr 120 Hr 2006 216 309 2007 187 214 2008 301447 2009 258 298 2010 216 261 *Goal: 100 150 (WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC – 96-120 Hours)

12. 2010 WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC TRACK ERRORS (Storm by Storm)

13. CROSS TRACK (direction) ERROR (Western North Pacific)

14. ALONG TRACK (speed) ERROR (Western North Pacific)

15. 2010 MODEL TRACK ERRORS (Western North Pacific – Homogeneous)

16. 2010 JTWC INTENSITY ERRORS (All Basins) 29672232 26363205 22853174 62658 1001183 14822115 20042152

17. JTWC INTENSITY ERRORS (Western North Pacific 24 - 120 Hours) 24 Hr 48 Hr 72 Hr 96Hr 120Hr 2006 13 18 20 22 24 2007 11 18 23 24 26 2008 12 19 21 22 28 2009 12 19 25 26 27 2010 9 12 15 21 24 *Goal: +/- 20% of actual at all TAUs

18. 2010 WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC INTENSITY ERRORS (Storm by Storm)

19. 2010 MODEL INTENSITY ERRORS (Western North Pacific – Homogeneous)

20. 2011 PROJECTS/EVENTS Genesis or Development potential –Use of radiance data (Ritchie) –Statistical/Dynamic (Murphree) Intensity analysis/forecast/verification –(OBT,ADT/SATCON,AMSU) Ensemble TC forecasting Rapid intensification climatology, diagnoses, and prediction TC / TUTT cell interaction Singular vector analysis –Application of sensitivity studies (Reynolds, et. Al.) Improvements to data processing, display, analysis and storage –Google Earth tool (GEMINI) –PZAL (Collab) archive –JTWC Automation Management System (JAMS) –AWIPS-2 Evaluation COAMPS-TC evaluation GFDN upgrades / coupling AFWA UM TC Tracker Mark IVB X-Band Upgrade Typhoon Conference –Tokyo, 5-8 April 2011 Hosted Taiwan CWB and Australia BoM visiting scientists Building closer ties with UH Hiring GS-13 Chief Scientist –Increased JHT/HFIP participation –Possible JHT funding (~$500K)

21. OPERATIONAL ITEMS ITOP / TCS-10 – TDOs flew missions Invest/Suspect Areas –Poor/Fair/Good potential for development change to Low/Medium/High probability of development –Clarity for non-weather customers –Implementation 1 Jun 11 ATCF Funding – Back on Track Continued focus on along track and intensity

22. STILL NEED WORK ON TRACK (TC Phet (03A)) UKMO (EGGR)GFSNOGAPS ECMWF GFDN JTWC & CONW

23. Contact Info Commanding Officer, NMFC/JTWC CAPT Mike Angove michael.angove@navy.mil (808) 471-0363 Director Mr. Robert Falvey robert.falvey@navy.mil (808) 474-5301 Technical Advisor Mr. Ed Fukada edward.fukada@navy.mil (808) 474-5305 Operations Officer (JTOPS) LCDR Jeremy Callahan jeremy.callahan@navy.mil (808) 471-4597 Techniques Development Mr. Matt Kucas matthew.kucas@navy.mil (808) 471-4597 Satellite Operations Flight Capt Jay Neese jay.neese@navy.mil (808) 474-3946

24. QUESTIONS

25. BACKUPS

26. JTWC AOR 33% 8% 11%13% 7% 1 7% RSMC Miami

27. 27 TC ACTIVITY NW Pacific NW Pacific 2006: 26 2006: 26 2007: 27 2007: 27 2008: 27 2008: 27 2009: 28 2009: 28 2010: 19 2010: 19 25 Yr avg: 31 S. Indian Ocean & W. Australia Region 2006: 15 2007: 14 2008: 21 2009: 18 2010: 14 25 Yr avg: 18 South Pacific & E. Australia Region 2006: 8 2007: 10 2008: 8 2009: 9 2010: 10 25 Yr avg: 10 C Pacific C Pacific 2006: 1 2006: 1 2007: 0 2007: 0 2008: 1 2008: 1 2009: 3 2009: 3 2010: 1 2010: 1 25 Yr avg: 2 25 Yr avg: 2 NE Pacific NE Pacific 2006: 21 2006: 21 2007: 15 2007: 15 2008: 18 2008: 18 2009: 20 2009: 20 2010: 12 2010: 12 25 Yr avg: 18 Arabian Sea & Bay of Bengal 2006: 5 2006: 5 2007: 6 2007: 6 2008: 7 2008: 7 2009: 5 2009: 5 2010: 5 2010: 5 25 Yr avg: 5 25 Yr avg: 5

28. 28 ANNUAL TC ACTIVITY (Western North Pacific Ocean) Year Number of Cyclones

29. 29 ANNUAL TC ACTIVITY (North Indian Ocean) Year Number of Cyclones

30. 30 ANNUAL TC ACTIVITY (Southern Hemisphere) Year Number of Cyclones

31. 2010 SATELLITE RECON Microwave Fixes by JTWC Total Microwave Fixes: 3,136 (49.5% of total)

32. AVERAGE TRACK ERROR (Western North Pacific)

33. 2010 MODEL TRACK ERRORS (Western North Pacific – Non-homogeneous) Note: GFDN errors negatively impacted by code porting problem

34. 2007 MODEL TRACK ERRORS (Western North Pacific – Homogeneous)

35. 2008 MODEL TRACK ERRORS (Western North Pacific – Homogeneous)

36. 2009 MODEL TRACK ERRORS (Western North Pacific – Homogeneous)

37. 2010 MODEL INTENSITY ERRORS (Western North Pacific – Non-homogeneous)

38. 2007 MODEL INTENSITY ERRORS (Western North Pacific – Homogeneous)

39. 2008 MODEL INTENSITY ERRORS (Western North Pacific – Homogeneous)

40. 2009 MODEL INTENSITY ERRORS (Western North Pacific – Homogeneous)