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2005 Interim Results August 2005 2005 Interim Results August 2005.

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Presentation on theme: "2005 Interim Results August 2005 2005 Interim Results August 2005."— Presentation transcript:

1 2005 Interim Results August 2005 2005 Interim Results August 2005

2 2005 Interim Results August 2005 Interim Results Sustainability Agenda

3 2005 Interim Results August 2005 2005504+63% 444+73% Interim Full year 335 161 2003 694+107% 2004 309+92% Trading Profit (Rm) Interim Results Headline Earnings Per Share (cents)251 100 2003 618+146% 2004 256+156%

4 2005 Interim Results August 2005 Analysis of earnings for 6 months to June 2005 HandysizeBulkCarriersPanamaxBulkCarriersCapesizeBulkCarriersProductTankersChemicalTankersContainershipsTotal Average number of ships15,61,37,76,52,01,1 Revenue (US$/day)21,10021,00028,70019,50012,50010,000 Cost (US$/day)7,5008,75018,20012,0009,1008,200 Contribution (US$m)38,83,014,79,01,20,467,1 R / US$ exchange rateR6,22 Contribution (Rm)417 Other Shipping Operations / Overheads(119) Forex on US$ exposure81 Total - Shipping Services379 Freight and Financial Services29 Profit408 Interim Results

5 2005 Interim Results August 2005 Assumptions  Used PV of long term charter rates on remaining open charter periods to value charters  Used current MV of owned fleet to obtain excess fleet value  Forecast MV at end of charters used to value options  Unrecognised value of other businesses at estimated MV R 13 9 18 7 54 Current value per share  Book NAV  Excess of MV over BV of ships  Value of charters  Value of options  Unrecognised value of other businesses Mark to Market valuation of assets Interim Results

6 2005 Interim Results August 2005 Capital Expenditure during interim period Shipping Capital Expenditure 182Contract prices well below current market values Freight Capital Expenditure 500 Atlas Trading & Shipping - working capitalShipping / Logistics services for grain / soya Sheltam Grindrod - 50%To take advantage of rail expansion opportunities African Portland Industries - 90%Walvis Bay / Maputo Bulk Terminals Sea MunyeRichards Bay Bulk Terminals Expansion through acquisition of logistical plant and equipment For example Grindrod J&J Logistics Increased stake in Rohlig GrindrodFrom 42,5% to 50% 682 Interim Results Shipping Capital Expenditure Commitments 1,167Product tankers Freight Capital Expenditure Commitments 233 Oreport - 50%Shipping / Logistics services for mining products Cockett Marine - 50%Worldwide shipping bunker supplier 10 locomotivesTender opportunities 1,400 DescriptionRmComment

7 2005 Interim Results August 2005 Interim Results Sustainability Agenda

8 2005 Interim Results August 2005 BCI BPI BHMI Sustainability Baltic Indices

9 2005 Interim Results August 2005 2005 Bearish during Q2, normalising in later part of Q3 and Q4 Chinese production output key to iron ore imports Coking coal continues to grow, Steam coal growth to meet power generation needs, increase with industrialisation and urbanisation Source: Clarksons Sustainability The outlook for dry bulk shipping rates 2006 Key driver remains Chinese steel demand Continued long term demand growth Low growth in developed world economies; moderate growth in developing world economies 2007& beyond Consistent long-term demand in base commodities Ageing fleet profile Scrappings to increase with “softer” freight rates Add. shipyard capacity expansions to be on-stream 2010 and beyond Marginal demand to be higher than marginal supply Possible boom in 2009

10 2005 Interim Results August 2005 Key trends in product market are favourable for strong tanker market New supply of tankers is known and fixed in the short-run Increased demand for refined products in major countries of India, China and United States Refining capacity in the US and Europe is essentially at capacity, new refining capacity in the Arabian Gulf that will meet this demand will require long distance transportation New restrictions - single hull phase out by 2010 Source: Poten & Partners Sustainability The outlook for product tanker shipping rates

11 2005 Interim Results August 2005 Sustainability Shipping Locking in shipping income Low fleet cost Expanding fleet How the new Grindrod addresses sustainability of earnings, given the cyclical nature of Shipping

12 2005 Interim Results August 2005 Shipping :Locking in shipping income 20062007 By DWT51 %36 % Eg Capesize Bulk Carriers - Fixed daily earnings (Current spot = $30 000 pd) $ 33,000$ 36,000 Eg Panamax Bulk Carriers - Fixed daily earnings (Current spot = $16 000 pd) $ 21,000 Total contracted income$ 48 m$ 23 m Sustainability

13 2005 Interim Results August 2005 Owned Fleet (38% of total Grindrod fleet) eg Product Tankers - BVR1,043m - MVR1,671m Chartered Fleet (62% of total Grindrod fleet) eg Handysize Bulk Carriers - 7 year charter rate payable$ 7,500 pd - current 7 year charter rate$11,500 pd eg Capesize Bulk Carriers - 3 year charter rate payable$15,000 pd - current 3 year charter rate$26,000 pd eg Panamax Bulk Carriers - 5 year charter rate payable$ 9,250 pd - current 5 year charter rate$16,000 pd Shipping :Low fleet cost Sustainability

14 2005 Interim Results August 2005 Sustainability Shipping :Low fleet cost - Ability to Beat the Index eg LB / IVS Handysize Bulkcarrier Pool earnings vs market Jan 03 Mar 03 May 03 Jul 03 Sep 03 Nov 03 Jan 04 Mar 04 May 04 Jul 04 Sep 04 Nov 04 Jan 05 Mar 05 May 05 Jul 05 LB / IVS Pool Earnings Market Earnings 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 US$

15 2005 Interim Results August 2005 Shipping :Expanding fleet Current To deliver Total 2006200720082009 Owned11232-18 On long term charter2923- 3- 130 Total4046- 1 48 Sustainability

16 2005 Interim Results August 2005 Products / Chemical tankers Container ships Handysize - Parcel Service Handysize - ITAS vessels Capesize / Panamax Handysize - LB / IVS Pool Total fleet = 88 ships 18 Owned 30 Chartered (long-term) 40 Chartered (short-term) Shipping :Expanding fleet - Global position Sustainability

17 2005 Interim Results August 2005 Shipping Locking in shipping income Low fleet cost Non-shipping expansion Logistics Bulk product trading Terminals / Rail Sustainability Expanding fleet How the new Grindrod addresses sustainability of earnings, given the cyclical nature of Shipping

18 2005 Interim Results August 2005 Shipping currently contributes 90% of Operating Profit Objective: To be reduced to 67% by 2008 Why can Grindrod successfully expand its non-shipping operations in the face of fierce competition? Existing skills base and additional skills acquired Partnerships with industry experts Complementary to shipping Cross marketing of customer base Non-shipping expansion: Diversification of earnings stream Sustainability

19 2005 Interim Results August 2005 Non-shipping expansion: Good Products / Services / Customers / Partners Sea Munye Sheltam Atlas Sustainability

20 2005 Interim Results August 2005 Ships Agency Auto Carriers Boltt Grindrod CMC Grindrod Grindrod PCA Grindrod J&J Picpack Grindrod Rohlig-Grindrod Ocean Africa Sheltam IVS Unicorn Shipping Southern Tankers Ships Agency Auto Carriers Boltt Grindrod CMC Grindrod Grindrod PCA Grindrod J&J Picpack Grindrod Rohlig-Grindrod Ocean Africa Unicorn Shipping Southern Tankers Cockett Marine Ships Agency CMC Grindrod Grindrod J&J Rohlig-Grindrod Ocean Africa Sheltam Unicorn Shipping Southern Tankers Ships Agency Auto Carriers Grindrod J&J Rohlig-Grindrod Ocean Africa Unicorn Shipping Southern Tankers Ships Agency Rohlig-Grindrod API Ocean Africa Unicorn Shipping IVS Southern Tankers CAPE TOWN PORT ELIZABETH EAST LONDON MAPUTO JOHANNESBURG WALVIS BAY Ships Agency API Ocean Africa Unicorn Shipping Southern Tankers RICHARDS BAY Ships Agency Kusasa BT Kusasa Logistics Sea Munye Navitrade Rohlig-Grindrod Star Biomass Ocean Africa Sheltam IVS DURBAN Ships Agency Auto Carriers Boltt Grindrod CMC Grindrod Grindrod PCA Grindrod J&J Picpack Grindrod Rohlig-Grindrod Sheltam Oreport Non-shipping expansion: Southern Africa coverage Sustainability

21 2005 Interim Results August 2005 Other strategic initiatives Sustainability Pref share issue Share split International listing Other strategic initiatives Shipping Locking in shipping income Low fleet cost Non-shipping expansion Logistics Bulk product trading Terminals / Rail Expanding fleet

22 2005 Interim Results August 2005 Preference shares will not dilute HEPS, as Grindrod’s target ROE > cost of servicing the preference shares Have good income base to ensure preference share serviceability R500m raised from preference share issue to be spent on: Growing rail operations Public / Private partnerships Further non-shipping expansion / possible major acquisitions Shipping opportunities in low markets Other strategic initiatives :Preference share issue Sustainability

23 2005 Interim Results August 2005 Improve marketability / liquidity Widen shareholder base More accessible to new shareholders Subject to shareholder approval Sustainability Other strategic initiatives :Share split

24 2005 Interim Results August 2005 Being investigated Will proceed if beneficial to shareholders Comparable listed shipping company PE ratios = +- 7 Share prices of listed shipping companies generally trade at a premium to NAV Sustainability Other strategic initiatives :International listing

25 2005 Interim Results August 2005 Ensure high level of contracted / annuity income – R400m Contracted shipping income Tanker earnings - more stable market Freight and Financial services New investments - Power of Compound – R250m Utilisation of cash from operations Utilisation of cash from preference share issue Target Debt / Equity = 80% Target ROE = 20% Profits from Bulk Product Trading – R100m Good management of shipping in lower markets – R150m Mainly Handysize bulk carriers in more volatile market Critical success factors and an example of what can be achieved Sustainability

26 2005 Interim Results August 2005 Sustainability Possible Balance Sheet if targets met 2004 B/Sheet Capex Possible B/Sheet 200520062007 Total Assets (excl Cash)2,062+2,250+1500+1,7007,512 Less Other Liabilities(794) 1,268+2,250+1,500+1,7006718 Equity850+675+800+9253,250 Preference Share capital+500500 Net Debt418+1075+700+7752968 1,268+2,250+1,500+1,7006,718 Debt / Equity49 %80 %


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