1. Urban to Rural Evacuation A Closer Look at Pennsylvania’s Northern Tier By Saskia Cohick

2. Definition Urban to Rural Evacuation: The spontaneous movement of a population from an urban area to a suburban or rural area in the event of a natural or man-made disaster. Examples: Hurricane Katrina, Three Mile Island (TMI), September 11 attacks

3. Background North Central Task Force (NCTF) Previous research potential evacuee surge Emergency Management Agency (EMA) professionals found research predictions inadequate Reasons Experience (TMI) Population characteristics

4. Map of NCTF

5. Previous Research http://www.cei.psu.edu/evac/about/index.html Web page includes a web based mapping evacuation planning tool Links to additional tools to assist emergency evacuation planning

6. Methods & Assumptions Previous Research Previous Research: Nature of event Likeliness to evacuate Relative appeal of rural area Interviews with 17 informants Previous experiences National data sets Used hotel/motel availability

7. Methods & Assumptions current research What is the draw of each county Interviews performed with EMA or 911 Directors/Coordinators and other emergency responders TMI experiences Find approach that would utilize best data sources from counties for prediction Household/property ownership information

8. Availability of GIS data in NCTF Full Capabilities: Road, Buildings, Hydrology, Parcels, Land Use, Zoning Partial Capabilities: Completed roads, buildings, hydrology and working on parcels and other land classifications Limited Capabilities: Working on completion of basic planimetric layers

9. Results from the current tool…… Exploring resources

10. Results from the current tool……. Dirty Bomb with % change in population

11. Results from the current tool……. Dirty Bomb with number of evacuees

12. What caused the differences? TMI incident. Respondents indicated total exhaustion of resources. Food and water resources exhausted Insufficient housing for all individuals Fuel shortages reported across the region

13. Cause for concern………. Limited Medical Services Over 93% emergency responders volunteer Infrastructure 40% state owned lands – mainly wooded areas

14. Even if you can’t find them, they will still come.. Improve estimates Number of evacuees Location of evacuees Create a prediction scenario with structure (building) based information Obtain more accurate data # of owners/parcel State owned land information

15. Unique considerations… Non-resident land owners Evacuate to known locations Hunting camps and summer or second homes prevalent

16. The numbers Total number of residents (2008 estimates) = R Average number of residents per addressable structure ( 2000 census) = Ar Number of structures occupied by full time residents = RS Total number of addressable structures = A Number of seasonal structures = SS Number of non-residents possible= NR (R / Ar)=RS A - RS = SS SS * Ar = NR

17. Expected Evacuees per County CountyPittsburghHarrisburgPhiladelphiaTotal Potter118415601340 Tioga01680 Bradford019449845178 Sullivan017244174589 Lycoming023356755908 Union028041724452 Clinton148520901694 On-Line Tool Results

18. Numbers of Evacuees per Square Mile CountyEvacueesAreaEvac/SqMi Potter13401081.171.24 Tioga1681133.730.15 Bradford51781150.674.50 Sullivan4589449.9410.20 Lycoming59081234.854.78 Union4452316.7314.06 Clinton1694890.871.90

19. What GIS data layers can help refine calculations Parcel layer Road Network State Land Capacity Other accommodations

20. Considerations for next portion of work… Who is coming? Owners (plus others?) What will they bring? Supplies Pets How will they get here? Roads adequate Where will they be? Evacuee population dispersion

21. Thank you! Special thanks to Doug Miller, PSU Great appreciation to all involved counties who provided data and assistance John Hetrick, Joe Gerhart - Potter County Kim Barto, Sullivan County Denny Colegrove, Rob Schwarz – Tioga County Sue Reese – Union County Jim Watson – Clinton County Scott Molnar – Bradford County Barry Hutchins – Lycoming County

22. More thanks……. Thanks also to original researchers: Tom Briggs, NORC at the University of Chicago Michael Meit, MA, MPH, NORC at the Univeristy of Chicago Dr. Donald Rowe, PH.D., Public health Liaison, School of Public Health and Health Professions, University of Buffalo Stephen Crawford, Penn State University Center for Environmental Informatics.