1. 1 NOAA and the International Polar Year A Presentation to the NOAA Science Advisory Board Dr. John A. Calder Director Arctic Research Office March 23, 2005

2. 2 Outline Purpose Issue Presentation of Briefing NOAA Coordination and Views Desired Outcomes

3. 3 Purpose To present status of international planning and NOAA’s plans for participation in the IPY and seek the views of the SAB on: –Opportunities for demonstrating leadership –Opportunities for external collaboration

4. 4 Issue What are the key issues that are called to the SAB attention? Can NOAA improve its visibility and leadership? Can NOAA improve external coordination?

5. 5 International Polar Year March 2007-March 2009 - 50 year anniversary of IGY Co-sponsored by ICSU and WMO – Joint IPY Committee (www.ipy.org) US National IPY Committee under NAS Polar Research Board Major IPY projects under development, built on national submissions

6. 6 IPY GOALS Understand polar processes and their global linkages Explore new scientific frontiers Increase ability to detect change Attract and develop next generation of scientists Excite and educate the public

7. 7 Current Status Nearly 900 individual ideas submitted in response to IPY call for Expressions of Intent (NOAA submitted 10) IPY Joint Committee seeking to identify the larger themes embedded in these submissions International and national coordination mechanisms under development

8. 8 NOAA Submissions to IPY EXPLORATION 1. Ocean Exploration in Polar Regions OBSERVATIONS 2. Causes and Impacts of Recent Changes in the Pacific Arctic 3. International Arctic System for Observing the Atmosphere 4. Polar stratospheric Ozone Depletion Observations PREDICTION AND MODELING 5. Short-term Arctic Predictability (STAP) 6. Advances in Satellite Products and Their Use in Numerical Weather Prediction 7. Arctic Climate Modeling 8. Arctic System Reanalysis DATA, OUTREACH AND DECISION SUPPORT 9. NOAA’s Data, Information, and Change Detection Strategy for the IPY 10. Outreach and decision support for increasing adaptive capacity to climate change and variability in Alaska and the Arctic.

9. 9 NOAA Coordination Actions Coordination –Internal - all Line Offices, resulted in 10 Expressions of Intent to IPY –Interagency – Mahoney, Rosen at interagency fora –International – IPY Open Consultative Forum, Arctic Science Summit Week –Community – American Geophysical Union, American Meteorological Society

10. 10 NOAA’s Views and Actions What are NOAA’s views on the subject? –NOAA desires to be a leader Offer to undertake project-level leadership for IPY Offer to participate in data and communication subcommittees –NOAA FY2007 program guidance includes emphasis on IPY Arctic Ocean Observing System +$4.5M Arctic System Reanalysis +$1.8M Arctic Coastal Climatologies +$1.0M Alaska Climate Reference Network +$2.5M Alaska RISA +$1.3M Intensive Arctic Observatory Network +$1.6M (FY2008)

11. 11 Programmatic Issues How best to deal with interagency and international community –Project-by-project –Centralized NOAA IPY Point of Contact Final determination of IPY projects to be funded by NOAA and the entire international community Project coordination after funding decisions are made

12. 12 Desired Outcomes SAB reaction to NOAA’s role in IPY –Does the SAB see other opportunities for NOAA to exert leadership in the IPY? –Are there additional opportunities for improving coordination?

13. 13 1. NOAA’s Office of Ocean Exploration will support interdisciplinary polar voyages of discovery to: map and explore the polar oceans at new scales, develop a more thorough understanding of polar ocean dynamics and interactions at new levels, develop new sensors and systems, and share the excitement of discovery with the public. Image courtesy of Ian MacDonald

14. 14 2. Causes and Impacts of Recent Changes in the Pacific Arctic Ecosystem Change

15. 15 CANADA CHINA, KOREA, JAPAN 2. Causes and Impacts of Recent Changes in the Pacific Arctic

16. 16 Automated Drifting Stations Ice Mass Balance buoys

17. 17 3. Arctic Atmospheric Observatories To understand the Arctic atmosphere it is necessary to have detailed measurements of clouds, aerosols, radiation, water vapor, surface fluxes, as well as surface and upper air temperature, moisture, and wind measurements. Clouds and aerosols in the Arctic have a major influence on surface radiation budgets and resulting surface temperatures, ice ablation/melt rates, and the onset of the annual snow melt season. Major components of an Arctic Atmospheric Observatory are active cloud sensors, passive and in-situ aerosol sensors, broadband radiation fluxes (up and down), surface fluxes, spectral radiometry, and rawinsondes.

18. 18 Tiksi, Russia Alert, CanadaBarrow, Alaska Eureka, Canada Summit, Greenland Ny-Alesund, Svalbard

19. 19 4. Polar Atmospheric Chemistry for Ozone Depletion and Greenhouse Gases  NOAA will continue atmospheric monitoring at South Pole and Barrow for greenhouse gases, ozone depleting substances, and aerosols, along with laboratory and field research into stratospheric change and ozone destruction and recovery.  NOAA will continue its support for cooperative monitoring projects and will welcome IPY scientists.

20. 20 5. Improving Short-term Arctic Forecasts and Understanding Teleconnections WMO-THORPEX PLANS FIELD PROGRAM DURING IPY 1)Utilize enhanced IPY polar observing system in NWP 2)Enhance atmospheric observations in NW Pacific Targeted to improve Alaskan (and Northern Canadian) forecasts Study mid-latitude – polar interaction on daily time scale 3)Evaluate effect of enhanced observing system on forecasts Study combined effect of North Pacific & polar region observations on 2-3 day forecasts over polar regions of NA and on 3-14 day forecasts over NA, NH, Global domains 4) Will lead to Links between polar and mid-latitude weather process Improved targeted weather forecasts Improved sea ice and air quality forecasts

21. 21 6. Advances in Satellite Applications for Polar Studies Objectives: Improve satellite retrieval science and develop new products Validate satellite products using in situ data collected during IPY Improve model assimilation of satellite products to improve forecasts in the high latitudes and globally Conduct retrospective analyses of satellite data to detect climate change Support other IPY projects with satellite products Polar satellite products help reduce forecast busts globally (MODIS polar winds in this case) New satellite sounders will provide high vertical resolution of the atmosphere and new spectral information for cloud property retrievals. (Moisture weighting functions shown here)

22. 22 NCEP NUMERICAL FORECASTS TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY ADVECTION AND WINDS ETL: ARCTIC ATMOSPHERIC OBSERVATORIES SURFACE ALBEDO AND TEMPERATURE VALIDATIONFORCING NESDIS TOA IRRADIANCE AND CLOUD RETRIEVALS SURFACE RADIATIVE AND TURBULENT FLUXES; PRECIPITATION CLOUD PROPERTIES Improve the physics of GCMs by taking advantage of the rich data to be derived from the Arctic Atmospheric Observatories and satellites Test single column models against the observations and apply knowledge gained to improve GCMs Share integrated dataset with research community 7. IMPROVING CLIMATE MODELS IN THE ARCTIC GCM PHYSICS GFDL SINGLE COLUMN MODEL SURFACE VARIABLES AND ATMOSPHERIC RETRIEVALS

23. 23 8. Arctic System Reanalysis “Reanalysis” provides a physically consistent description of the climate system that can be used to detect change and provide attribution. No previous effort has focused on the entire Arctic region, nor have the models been formulated to account for uniquely Arctic processes. ASR will include not only atmospheric data and models, but also attempt to include sea ice and upper ocean to account for the tight coupling between them. The longer-term goal of the ASR is to evolve to an operational state in which these activities continue indefinitely for climate research and forecasting

24. 24 9a. Data Management NOAA’s National Data Centers also serve as World Data Centers, a legacy of the 1957-1958 IGY. They and other global WDCs are an infrastructure to build upon to meet IPY data management objectives. Fundamental goal: Securely archive a baseline against which to assess future change. Ensure that IPY data are accessible and preserved for current and future users. Ensure that IPY projects follow IPY guidelines. Make compliance simple. Offer tools, tutorials. Ensure that standards such as the Open Archival Information System (OAIS) Reference Model and the ISO19115 metadata standard are met Serve as clearinghouse and facilitator for data management issues.

25. 25 9b. Main Indicators in Arctic Change Detection Website PUBLIC RELEASE: Nov 9, 2004 -- http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/detect  Highest 1/3  Middle 1/3  Lowest 1/3 Large Changes in Recent Years are Highlighted in Red 1970 1980 1990 2000

26. 26 10. NOAA IPY Regional Climate Decision Support Meet demands for decision support in Alaska through an integrated, multi-disciplinary approach Expand the Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments Program and Regional Climate Centers Program Integrate it with the NWS regional climate services program and the Alaska State Climatologist Collaborate with other Arctic countries to develop broader decision-support efforts and make a lasting contribution to IPY and beyond. IPY is a unique opportunity to develop an integrated Climate Regional Decision Support Program integrating monitoring, data services, research, operational service delivery, and customer support.