1. National Integrated Drought Information System Drought Early Warning for the Apalachicola- Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin 14 October 2014

2. Outline Welcome – Eric Reutebuch, AU Water Resources Center Current drought status – David Zierden, Florida Climate Center, FSU Streamflows and groundwater – Tony Gotvald, USGS Seasonal forecasts and outlooks – David Zierden, FSU Streamflow forecasts – Jeff Dobur, SERFC Summary and Discussion

3. Current drought status David Zierden

4. October Drying Welcome

5. Vigorous Low Pressure System

6. 7-day Rainfall Totals

7. Lawn and Garden Moisture Index

8. 30-Day Rainfall

9. 90-day Rainfall Departures

11. Realtime stream flow compared with historical monthly averages Current: http://waterwatch.usgs.gov Previous Brief: Tony Gotvald

12. Below Normal 7-day Average Streamflows Below normal 7-day average streamflow as compared with historical streamflow for day shown http://waterwatch.usgs.gov Current: Previous brief:

13. Lake Lanier Inflows http://waterwatch.usgs.gov Chattahoochee near Cornelia (02331600) Chestatee near Dahlonega (02333500)

14. Current Streamflows http://waterwatch.usgs.gov Chattahoochee at Atlanta (02336000) Chattahoochee near Whitesburg (02338000)

15. Current Streamflows Chattahoochee at West Point (02339500) Chattahoochee at Columbus(02341460) http://waterwatch.usgs.gov

16. Current Streamflows Flint River near Griffin (02344500) Flint River near Carsonville (02347500) http://waterwatch.usgs.gov

17. Current Streamflows Flint River at Albany (02352500) Flint at Bainbridge (02356000) http://waterwatch.usgs.gov

18. Streamflows Apalachicola at Chattahoochee (02358000) http://waterwatch.usgs.gov

19. Groundwater Conditions http://groundwaterwatch.usgs.gov Previous briefCurrent brief

20. Groundwater Status – Miller County 08G001 (Upper Floridan Aquifer)

21. Groundwater Status – Seminole County 06F001 (Upper Floridan Aquifer)

22. Groundwater Status – Early County 08K001 (Upper Floridan Aquifer)

24. 7-Day Precipitation Forecast http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day1-5.shtml David Zierden

25. 7-day average Pacific Ocean SST Anomalies

26. Nino Indices

27. Multivariate ENSO Index

28. Winds Over the Pacific

29. Subsurface Temperatures Late AprilCurrent

30. ENSO Model Forecast

31. 1-3 Month Precipitation Outlook 1 Month 3 Month

32. Other Signs of El Nino Dry summer in the Southeast Inactive Atlantic hurricane season Very active E. Pacific hurricane season Active SW Monsoon NOAA forecast 65% Australia BOM 50% Klaus Wolter 80-90% Tallahassee recorded the driest summer ever at 8.66 inches

33. October Hurricane Tracks

34. Florida Hurricane Drought

35. Summer Rainfall Climatology

36. U.S. Drought Outlook

38. Above Normal Near Normal Below Normal Lake Lanier Inflows Whitesburg West Point Columbus WF George Columbus Woodruff Blountstown Lovejoy Carsonville Albany Jeff Dobur

41. Severe drought hanging on in South Georgia, significant improvement over the entire area anticipated. Ongoing event brings 30-day totals up to normal. 90-day totals are mixed in the middle and upper basin, still below normal in the lower ACF 10-day dry period was well-timed for row crop harvest (peanut, cotton, corn) Development of El Nino is now very late, but weak event still possible. E. Pacific hurricane season and Southeast Summer dryness could be signs Inactive Atlantic hurricane season continues Climatologically can only expect 2-3” in October, more in November. Summary-David Zierden

42. Summary-Tony Gotvald Realtime streamflows are in the normal to below normal range throughout the ACF basin. Inflows into Lake Lanier are in the below normal range. Streamflows are below normal throughout the Flint River basin. Groundwater levels are in the normal range in Southwest Georgia

43. Summary-Jeff Dobur 1 Month Streamflow forecast - Near Normal 3 Month Streamflow forecast – Near Normal, nearly equal chances at all 3 categories Not much change from previous forecast

44. Questions, Comments, Discussion

45. References Speakers David Zierden, FSU Tony Gotvald, USGS Jeff Dobur, SERFC Moderator Eric Reutebuch, AU WRC Additional information General drought information http://drought.gov http://www.drought.unl.edu General climate and El Niño information http://agroclimate.org/climate/ http://agroclimate.org/climate/ Streamflow monitoring & forecasting http://waterwatch.usgs.gov http://www.srh.noaa.gov/serfc/ Groundwater monitoring http://groundwaterwatch.usgs.gov

46. Thank you! Next briefing November 18, 2014 November 18, 2014, 1:00 pm EDT Moderator: Eric Reutebuch Slides from this briefing will be posted at http://drought.gov/drought/content/regional-programs/regional-drought-webinars Please send comments and suggestions to: reuteem@auburn.edu