1. COST 733 Harmonisation and Applications of Weather Type Classifications for European regions Status before Ioannina Working Group 2 Implementation and development of weather type classification methods MCM6 2008/05/09-10 Ioannina

2. 2010/09 2009/09 2008/09 2007/09 2006/09 2005/09 MOU – WG2: 1.) computation of time series for selected methods 2.) selection of features from the selected methods to be combined in new common method (based on re- commendations from WG3 and WG4)‏ 3.) conception & development of (new) method(s)‏ 4.) programming of method 5.) computation of time series 6.) correction and updates (after exchange with WG3/4)‏ 7.) presentation & release of new method WG2 - Agenda & Timetable

3. Working Group 2 Implementation and development of weather type classification methods 1.) current database: cost733cat_1.1 2.) development of cost733cat_1.2 3.) development of (new) method(s)‏

4. Concept of development (MOU Scientific programme)‏ - select methods - collect/compute catalogues - release dataset version (=> cost733cat_1.0 & 1.1)‏ - feedback from WG3 and WG4 - modification/correction of classifications 1.) current dataset: cost733cat_1.1

5. 27 sets of catalogues 21 scalable (12 domains)‏ 6 unscalable (1 domain)‏ difference to cost733cat_1.0: revision of: LITADV, LITTC, NNW 1.) current dataset: cost733cat_1.1

6. download as tar file: - single files in format: (1i4,3i3) y,m,d,c - metadata - comprehensive files for each domain difference to 1.0: - NNW included - LITADVE & LITTC revised 1.) current dataset: cost733cat_1.1

7. cost733cat-1.1_D??.txt one comprehensive file for each domain: note: no missing values/ unclassified days: type number of previous day is inserted. unscalable cat's (for only one domain) are copied for all domains 12 domain cat's: CEC, ESLPC10,... year - month - day 1-domain cat's: HBGWL... 1.) current dataset: cost733cat_1.1

8. cost733wiki: explanation of type numbers (if meaningful)‏ ERA40 composite plots of mean type fields single cat's statistics program code references

9. SynopVis licensed now by Metoffice! Unclear if/when allowed to produce plots... develop grads-plots: new version (example LUND D11 type 07)‏ 4 seasons: D-J-F,... halfyear cost733cat_1.1: ERA40 composite plots:

10. cost733cat_1.1: composite plots (29028 jpg-files, 7.3 Gb)‏

11. 2.) development of cost733cat_1.2 WG2-meeting Augsburg: decisions 1.) in order to compare the methods itself: fix as many classification parameters as possible: - spatial configuration (already done -> domains)‏ - temporal configuration(CEC -> full year)‏ - number of types! => 10, 20, 30 types for each (changed to 9, 28, 27 in Ioannina) => cost733cat_1.2 (in preparation)

12. 2.) development of cost733cat_1.2 WG2-meeting Augsburg: decisions 2.) additional methods may be included => e.g. Kirchhofer 3.) keep composite plots even for low-frequent types 4.) try to avoid insignificant anomalies for temp & precip (-> contingence interval 95% should be < 1 sdev ?)‏ 5.) keep missing values in future releases (flag “-1”)‏ 7.) provide answers for questions of WG4 (metadata)‏ 6.) prepare unrestricted publication of the dataset -> permission from (external) contributors 7.) prepare publication documenting the dataset

13. 2.) development of cost733cat_1.2 54+ catalogues but only 16 scalable main methods in various subversions some will be replaced by the 10, 20, 30 type versions Problems: - delayed (deadline Apr)‏ - 10,20,30 types not possible for all (changed to 9,18,27 in Ioannina) - CEC questionable

14. 2.) development of cost733cat_1.2 not scalable and others: add Hess/Brezowsky modified version

15. 3.) development of method(s)‏

16. 3.) development of methods how should it look like? a) should be applicable for as many purposes as possible (harmonised)‏

17. 3.) development of methods a) should be applicable to many purposes (harmonized)‏ b) should be more effective = should have higher skill for applications relying upon links between circulation and surface parameters might be a contradiction in terms... how should it look like?

18. 3.) development of methods WG2-meeting Augsburg: 1.) Thomas Krennert: ZAMG, WLKC733 2.) Michel Erpicum: ERPICUM, 3.) Andreas Philipp: LUND, KH, SANDRA, SCHUEEPP, PERRET 4.) Filippos Tymvios: NNW 5.) Radan Huth: TPCA07, TPCAV 6.) Christoph Beck: GWT, LITADVE, LITTC 7.) Piia Post: P27, 8.) Domingo Rasilla Alvarez: PETISCO, PCACA 9.) Pere Esteban: PCAXTR,PCAXTRKM 10.) Judith Bartholy: HBGWL, PECZELY 11.) Silvie Jourdain: LWT2, OGWL 12.) Frank Kreienkamp : CEC

19. 3.) development of methods What are the differences between methods? => families of techniques: definition of key patterns 1.) subjective definition of key patterns HBGWL, OGWL, PECZELY, PERRET, ZAMG 2.) key pattern defined by thresholds: GWT, LITADVE, LITTC, LWT2, P27, WLK, SCHUEPP 3.) based on most frequent key patterns: E's, KH, LUND 4.) result from reduction of within-type variablitiy (CA): CEC, NNW, PCACA, SANDRA(S)‏ PETISCO (moved from group 3 due to final k-means step) 5.) key patterns defined by covariance structure (PCA): PCAXTR, PCAXTRKM, TPCA => question to WG3: Are there any differences between these 5 groups?

20. suggestion for defining classification “features”: I. primary features: predefined technical approach - concept for defining key patterns - similarity/distance measure - number of classes - meteorological parameters/levels used (CTC vs. WTC)‏ - temporal configuration: seasonal, single day, sequences,.. - spatial configuration: centered vs. unweighted, etc. II. secondary features: resulting statistical properties - distribution of type frequencies - seasonal distribution of frequencies - persistence - discrimination of temp / precip / air quality - redundancy of types III. tertiary features: skill for applications - downscaling etc. 3.) development of methods

21. “new method(s)” / harmonisation of methods: free, standardised software-package including results/recommendations from WG3 and WG4: - able to run different methods for key pattern definition: thresholds, most frequent, within-type-var, PCA-based - allow to change easily (by a command line switch): - similarity/distance measure - number of classes - meteorological parameters/levels used (input)‏ - temporal configuration: seasonal, sequences,.. - spatial configuration: domain, weighted, etc. available routines so far: NNW(SOM) (=) SANDRA (=) K-MEANS, PCA (orth. rot.), LUND (=) KIRCHHOFER 3.) development of methods

22. COST 733 Harmonisation and Applications of Weather Type Classifications for European regions Results from Ioannina Working Group 2 Implementation and development of weather type classification methods WGM6 2008/05/09-10 Ioannina

23. WG2 results Deadlines: 15 th of June for new catalogue + ~2 days -> release of 1.2 (please provide cost733 format! i4,3i3)‏ 30 th of June work on metadata finished New fixed numbers of types (replacing 10, 20 30)! 9, 18, 27 (and aproximations)‏ New reference input data: SLP for all except WLK!

24. WG2 resultsscalable classifications This table does not show all catalogues (only for 9,18,27)! Please refer to http://geo21.geo.uni-augsburg.de/cost733wiki/Cost733Classifications

25. WG2 results not scalable

26. WG2 results - permission form for cat's includes statement, that cat will be restricted to non-profit use reference paper with all refs has to be cited - sofware: nearly all methods can be reproduced - software package: check out license issues - check original cat's with reproduced ones - idea of training school on classification software

27. WG-4 Questions Q1: possible to run classifications for other parameters? yes, but not at the moment, -> software Q3: Data extention to up-to-date/other data? is possible when software is available Q4: use shorter time resolution? is possible when software is available same for seasonal classifications R2: minimum number of cases for all classes is result from method, -> final recommendation WG2 results