1. Section 3

2. What You Will Learn in this Module Explain the three different types of unemployment and their causes Identify the factors that determine the natural rate of unemployment Section 3 | Module 13

3. The Natural Rate of Unemployment Workers who spend time looking for employment are engaged in job search. Frictional unemployment is unemployment due to the time workers spend in job search. Structural unemployment is unemployment that results when there are more people seeking jobs in a labor market than there are jobs available at the current wage. Section 3 | Module 13

4. The Nature of Unemployment Distribution of the Unemployed by Duration of Unemployment 2000 and 2010 Section 3 | Module 13

5. Structural Unemployment The Effect of a Minimum Wage on the Labor Market Section 3 | Module 13

6. Structural Unemployment Minimum wages - a government- mandated floor on the price of labor. In the U.S., the national minimum wage in 2009 was $7.25 an hour. Unions - by bargaining for all a firm’s workers collectively (collective bargaining), unions can often win higher wages from employers than the market would have otherwise provided when workers bargained individually. Section 3 | Module 13

7. Structural Unemployment Efficiency wages - wages that employers set above the equilibrium wage rate as an incentive for better performance. Side effects of government policies - public policies designed to help workers who lose their jobs; these policies can lead to structural unemployment as an unintended side effect. 1 year maternity leave; 4 children; women systematically below men in corporate hierarchy Section 3 | Module 13

8. The Natural Rate of Unemployment The natural rate of unemployment is the normal unemployment rate around which the actual unemployment rate fluctuates. The natural rate of unemployment is the unemployment rate that arises from the effects of frictional plus structural unemployment. Cyclical unemployment is a deviation in the actual rate of unemployment from the natural rate. Section 3 | Module 13

9. The Natural Rate of Unemployment Natural unemployment = Frictional unemployment + Structural unemployment Actual unemployment = Natural unemployment + Cyclical unemployment Section 3 | Module 13

10. Changes in the Natural Rate of Unemployment Estimates of the natural rate of unemployment show that the U.S. natural rate rises and falls over time. The factors that affect the natural rate of unemployment include: – Changes in labor force characteristics – Changes in labor market institutions – Changes in government policy Section 3 | Module 13

11. Natural Unemployment in OECD (Organization of Economic Co- Operation and Development) Countries Section 3 | Module 13

12. Changes in the Natural Rate of Unemployment The Changing Makeup of the U.S. Labor Force, 1948–2013 Section 3 | Module 13

13. F YIF YIF YIF YI F YIF YIF YIF YI Structural Unemployment in Eastern Germany After reunification, employment in East Germany plunged. The economy of the former East Germany has remained persistently depressed, with an unemployment rate of more than 16% in 2008. East Germany found itself suffering from severe structural unemployment. It became clear that workers in East Germany were much less productive than their cousins in the west. The result has been a persistently large mismatch between the number of workers demanded and the number of those seeking jobs. Section 3 | Module 13

14. Summary 1.Job creation and destruction lead to job search and frictional unemployment. 2.A variety of factors such as minimum wages, unions, efficiency wages, and government policies designed to help laid-off workers result in a situation in which there is a surplus of labor at the market wage rate, creating structural unemployment. 3.The natural rate of unemployment, the sum of frictional and structural employment, is well above zero, even when jobs are plentiful. 4.Cyclical unemployment is the deviation of the actual rate of unemployment from the natural rate. 5.The natural rate of unemployment changes over time. Section 3 | Module 13

15. Section 3

16. What You Will Learn in this Module Calculate the rate of inflation Specify the economic costs of inflation Identify who is helped and who is hurt by inflation Explain why policy makers try to maintain a stable rate of inflation Differentiate between real and nominal values of income, wages, and interest rates Discuss the problems of deflation and disinflation Section 3 | Module 14

17. The Natural Rate of Unemployment The real wage is the wage rate divided by the price level. Real income is income divided by the price level. The inflation rate is the percent increase in the overall level of prices per year. Price level in year 1 Section 3 | Module 14

18. Inflation and Deflation Section 3 | Module 14 The Price Level Versus the Inflation Rate, 1969-2013

19. Inflation and Deflation High rates of inflation impose significant economic costs. – Shoe-leather costs are the increased costs of transactions caused by inflation. – Menu cost is the real cost of changing a listed price. – Unit-of-account costs arise from the way inflation makes money a less reliable unit of measurement. Section 3 | Module 14

20. F YIF YIF YIF YI F YIF YIF YIF YI Israel’s Experience with Inflation In the mid-1980s, Israel experienced a “clean” inflation. But policy errors led to very high inflation. The shoe-leather costs of inflation were substantial. Israelis spent a lot of time moving money in and out of bank accounts that provided high enough interest rates to offset inflation. Businesses made efforts to minimize menu costs. For example, restaurant menus often didn’t list prices. It was hard for Israelis to make decisions because prices changed so much and so often. Section 3 | Module 14

21. Winners and Losers from Inflation Inflation changes the dollar repayment of a loan will be because the loan contract is stated in nominal terms. – The nominal interest rate is the interest rate expressed in dollar terms. – The real interest rate is the nominal interest rate minus the rate of inflation. – If inflation is higher than expected, borrowers gain at the expense of lenders. – If inflation is lower than expected, lenders gain at the expense of borrowers. Disinflation is the process of bringing the inflation rate down. Section 3 | Module 14

22. The Cost of Disinflation Section 3 | Module 14

23. Summary 1.The rate of change of prices is important in the economy. 2.A high inflation rate imposes overall costs on the economy: shoe-leather costs, menu costs, and unit-of-account costs. 3.Inflation does not, as many assume, make everyone poorer by raising the level of prices because wages and incomes are adjusted to take into account a rising price level, leaving real wages and real income unaffected. 4.A higher-than-expected inflation rate is good for borrowers and bad for lenders. A lower-than expected inflation rate is good for lenders and bad for borrowers. 5.Disinflation is very costly, so policy makers try to prevent inflation from becoming excessive in the first place. Section 3 | Module 14

24. Section 3

25. What You Will Learn in this Module Explain what a price index is and how it is calculated Calculate the inflation rate using the values of a price index Describe the importance of the consumer price index and other price indexes Section 3 | Module 15

26. Price Indexes and the Aggregate Price Level The aggregate price level is a measure of the overall level of prices in the economy. To measure the aggregate price level, economists calculate the cost of purchasing a market basket. A price index is the ratio of the current cost of that market basket to the cost in a base year, multiplied by 100. Section 3 | Module 15

27. Calculating GDP and Real GDP in a Simple Economy Calculating the Cost of a Market Basket Section 3 | Module 15

28. Inflation Rate, CPI, and other Indexes The inflation rate is the yearly percentage change in a price index, typically based upon Consumer Price Index, or CPI, the most common measure of the aggregate price level. The CPI measures the cost of the market basket of a typical urban American family. Section 3 | Module 15

29. The Makeup of the Consumer Price Index in 2012 Section 3 | Module 15

30. The CPI, 1913 – 2013 Section 3 | Module 15

31. Other Price Measures A similar index to CPI for goods purchased by firms is the producer price index. Economists also use the GDP deflator, which measures the price level by calculating the ratio of nominal to real GDP. The GDP deflator for a given year is 100 times the ratio of nominal GDP to real GDP in that year. Section 3 | Module 15

32. The CPI, the PPI, and the GDP Deflator Section 3 | Module 15

33. F YIF YIF YIF YI F YIF YIF YIF YI Indexing to the CPI The CPI has a direct and immediate impact on millions of Americans. Many payments are tied, or “indexed,” to the CPI. Today, 48 million people receive checks from Social Security. In addition, all Social Security payments are adjusted each year to offset any increase in consumer prices over the previous year. The CPI is used to calculate the official estimate of the inflation rate used to adjust these payments yearly. Section 3 | Module 15

34. Summary 1.To measure the aggregate price level, economists calculate the cost of purchasing a market basket. 2.A price index is the ratio of the current cost of that market basket to the cost in a selected base year, multiplied by 100. 3.The inflation rate is the yearly percent change in a price index, typically based on the consumer price index the most common measure of the aggregate price level. 4.A similar index for goods and services purchased by firms is the producer price index. Finally, economists also use the GDP deflator, which measures the price level by calculating the ratio of nominal to real GDP times 100. Section 3 | Module 15