1. Testing Hypotheses about a Population Proportion Lecture 30 Sections 9.3 Wed, Oct 24, 2007

2. Summary 1.H 0 : p = 0.50 H 1 : p > 0.50 2.  = 0.05. 3.Test statistic: 4.z = (0.52 – 0.50)/0.0158 = 1.26. 5.p-value = P(Z > 1.26) = 0.1038. 6.Do not reject H 0. 7.It is not true that more than 50% of live births are male.

3. Before collecting data Summary 1.H 0 : p = 0.50 H 1 : p > 0.50 2.  = 0.05. 3.Test statistic: 4.z = (0.52 – 0.50)/0.0158 = 1.26. 5.p-value = P(Z > 1.26) = 0.1038. 6.Do not reject H 0. 7.It is not true that more than 50% of live births are male.

4. After collecting data Summary 1.H 0 : p = 0.50 H 1 : p > 0.50 2.  = 0.05. 3.Test statistic: 4.z = (0.52 – 0.50)/0.0158 = 1.26. 5.p-value = P(Z > 1.26) = 0.1038. 6.Do not reject H 0. 7.It is not true that more than 50% of live births are male.

5. Case Study 11 Male births vs. female births. Male births vs. female births

6. Testing Hypotheses on the TI- 83 The TI-83 has special functions designed for hypothesis testing. Press STAT. Select the TESTS menu. Select 1-PropZTest… Press ENTER.  A window with several items appears.

7. Testing Hypotheses on the TI- 83 Enter the value of p 0. Press ENTER and the down arrow. Enter the numerator x of p ^. Press ENTER and the down arrow. Enter the sample size n. Press ENTER and the down arrow. Select the type of alternative hypothesis. Press the down arrow. Select Calculate. Press ENTER.

8. Testing Hypotheses on the TI- 83 The display shows  The title “1-PropZTest”  The alternative hypothesis.  The value of the test statistic Z.  The p-value.  The value of p ^.  The sample size. We are interested in the p-value.

9. Case Study 12 A recent study has shown that moderate exercise helps reduce the risk of catching a cold.study 53 subjects were assigned to an exercise group that did moderate exercise. 62 subjects did only stretching exercises. In the first group, only 5 caught a cold. In the second group, 20 caught a cold.

10. Case Study 12 Use the TI-83 to test the hypothesis that a person who gets moderate exercise has less than a 1 in 3 chance of catching a cold.

11. The p-Value Approach p-Value approach.  Compute the p-value of the statistic.  Report the p-value.  If  is specified, then report the decision.

12. Two Approaches for Hypothesis Testing Classical approach.  Specify .  Determine the critical value and the rejection region.  See whether the statistic falls in the rejection region.  Report the decision.

13. Classical Approach  H0H0

14.   H0H0

15.   0 z c H0H0 Critical value

16. Classical Approach   0 z c Rejection Region Acceptance Region H0H0

17. Classical Approach   0 z c Rejection Region Acceptance Region H0H0

18. Classical Approach   0 z c Rejection Region Acceptance Region Reject z H0H0

19. Classical Approach   0 z c Rejection Region Acceptance Region H0H0

20. Classical Approach   0 z c Rejection Region Acceptance Region Accept z H0H0

21. The Classical Approach The seven steps  1. State the null and alternative hypotheses.  2. State the significance level.  3. Write the formula for the test statistic.  4. State the decision rule.  5. Compute the value of the test statistic.  6. State the decision.  7. State the conclusion. (Do not compute the p-value.)

22. The Classical Approach The seven steps  1. State the null and alternative hypotheses.  2. State the significance level.  3. Write the formula for the test statistic.  4. State the decision rule.  5. Compute the value of the test statistic.  6. State the decision.  7. State the conclusion. (Do not compute the p-value.) Before collecting data

23. The Classical Approach The seven steps  1. State the null and alternative hypotheses.  2. State the significance level.  3. Write the formula for the test statistic.  4. State the decision rule.  5. Compute the value of the test statistic.  6. State the decision.  7. State the conclusion. (Do not compute the p-value.) After collecting data

24. Example of the Classical Approach Test the hypothesis that there are more male births than female births. Let p = the proportion of live births that are male. Step 1: State the hypotheses.  H 0 : p = 0.50  H 1 : p > 0.50

25. Example of the Classical Approach Step 2: State the significance level.  Let  = 0.05. Step 3: Define the test statistic.

26. Example of the Classical Approach Step 4: State the decision rule.  Find the critical value.  On the standard scale, the value z 0 = 1.645 cuts off an upper tail of area 0.05. This is a normal percentile problem. Use invNorm(0.95) on the TI-83 or use the table.  Therefore, we will reject H 0 if z > 1.645. The decision rule

27. Example of the Classical Approach Step 5: Compute the value of the test statistic.

28. Example of the Classical Approach Step 6: State the decision.  Because z < 1.645, our decision is to accept H 0. Step 7: State the conclusion.  The proportion of male births is not greater than the proportion of female births.

29. Summary H 0 : p = 0.50 H 1 : p > 0.50  = 0.05. Test statistic: Reject H 0 if z > 1.645. Accept H 0. The proportion of male births is the same as the proportion of female births.

30. Case Study 12 Use the TI-83 and the classical approach to test the hypothesis that a person who gets moderate exercise has less than a 1 in 3 chance of catching a cold.