1. QUIZ!!  T/F: Traffic, Umbrella are cond. independent given raining. TRUE  T/F: Fire, Smoke are cond. Independent given alarm. FALSE  T/F: BNs encode qualitative and quantitative knowledge about the world. TRUE  T/F: You cannot break your BN by adding an arc from any node A to B. FALSE  T/F: Adding too many arcs in a BN might overly restrict your joint PT. FALSE  T/F: An arc from A to B means, A caused B. FALSE  T/F: In a BN, each node has a local joint PT including all its parents. FALSE  T/F: In a BN, each node has a local CPT over itself and all its children. FALSE  T/F: In a BN, each node has a local CPT over itself and all its parents. TRUE  T/F: Nodes without parents have no probability table. FALSE.  T/F: If your assumptions are correct, you can reconstruct the full joint PT. TRUE 1

2. CSE 511: Artificial Intelligence Spring 2013 Lecture 15: Bayes’ Nets II – Independence 3/25/2012 Robert Pless, via Kilian Q. Weinberger via Dan Klein – UC Berkeley

3. Announcements  Project 3 due a week from today at midnight.  Policy clarification: no use of late days for competitive (bonus) parts of projects.  Final exam will be weighted to count for between 1 and 2 times the midterm, whichever helps you most. 3

4. Bayes’ Nets  A Bayes’ net is an efficient encoding of a probabilistic model of a domain  Questions we can ask:  Inference: given a fixed BN, what is P(X | e)?  Representation: given a BN graph, what kinds of distributions can it encode?  Modeling: what BN is most appropriate for a given domain? 4

5. Bayes’ Net Semantics  Formalized semantics of a Bayes’ net:  A set of nodes, one per variable X  A directed, acyclic graph  A conditional distribution for each node  A collection of distributions over X, one for each combination of parents’ values  CPT: conditional probability table  Description of a noisy “causal” process A1A1 X AnAn A Bayes net = Topology (graph) + Local Conditional Probabilities 5

6. Example: Alarm Network Burglary Earthqk Alarm John calls Mary calls BP(B) +b0.001 bb 0.999 EP(E) +e0.002 ee 0.998 BEAP(A|B,E) +b+e+a0.95 +b+e aa 0.05 +b ee +a0.94 +b ee aa 0.06 bb +e+a0.29 bb +e aa 0.71 bb ee +a0.001 bb ee aa 0.999 AJP(J|A) +a+j0.9 +a jj 0.1 aa +j0.05 aa jj 0.95 AMP(M|A) +a+m0.7 +a mm 0.3 aa +m0.01 aa mm 0.99

7. Ex: Conditional Dependence: Alarm John calls Mary calls AJP(J|A) +a+j0.9 +a jj 0.1 aa +j0.05 aa jj 0.95 AMP(M|A) +a+m0.7 +a mm 0.3 aa +m0.01 aa mm 0.99 P(Alarm = 0.1)P(Alarm = 0.1) AJMP(A,J,M) +a+j+m0.063 +a+j mm 0.027 +a jj +m0.007 +a jj mm 0.003 aa +j+m.00045 aa +j mm.04455 aa jj +m.00855 aa jj mm.84645 JMP(J,M) +j+m.06345 +j mm.07155 jj +m.01555 jj mm.84945

8. Ex: Conditional Dependence: JMP(J,M) +j+m.06345 +j mm.07155 jj +m.01555 jj mm.84945 +m-m +j.06345.07155 -j.01555.84945

9. Building the (Entire) Joint  We can take a Bayes’ net and build any entry from the full joint distribution it encodes  Typically, there’s no reason to build ALL of it  We build what we need on the fly  To emphasize: every BN over a domain implicitly defines a joint distribution over that domain, specified by local probabilities and graph structure 9

10. Size of a Bayes’ Net  How big is a joint distribution over N Boolean variables? 2N2N  How big is an N-node net if nodes have up to k parents? O(N * 2 k+1 )  Both give you the power to calculate  BNs: Huge space savings!  Also easier to elicit local CPTs  Also turns out to be faster to answer queries (coming) 10

11. Bayes’ Nets So Far  We now know:  What is a Bayes’ net?  What joint distribution does a Bayes’ net encode?  Now: properties of that joint distribution (independence)  Key idea: conditional independence  Last class: assembled BNs using an intuitive notion of conditional independence as causality  Today: formalize these ideas  Main goal: answer queries about conditional independence and influence  Next: how to compute posteriors quickly (inference) 11

12. Conditional Independence  Reminder: independence  X and Y are independent if  X and Y are conditionally independent given Z  (Conditional) independence is a property of a distribution 12

13. Example: Independence  For this graph, you can fiddle with  (the CPTs) all you want, but you won’t be able to represent any distribution in which the flips are dependent! h0.5 t h t X1X1 X2X2 All distributions 13

14. Topology Limits Distributions  Given some graph topology G, only certain joint distributions can be encoded  The graph structure guarantees certain (conditional) independences  (There might be more independence)  Adding arcs increases the set of distributions, but has several costs  Full conditioning can encode any distribution X Y Z X Y ZX Y Z 14

15. Independence in a BN  Important question about a BN:  Are two nodes independent given certain evidence?  If yes, can prove using algebra (tedious in general)  If no, can prove with a counter example  Example:  Question: are X and Z necessarily independent?  Answer: no. Example: low pressure causes rain, which causes traffic.  X can influence Z, Z can influence X (via Y)  Addendum: they could be independent: how? XYZ

16. Three Amigos! 16

17. Causal Chains  This configuration is a “causal chain”  Is Z independent of X given Y?  Evidence along the chain “blocks” the influence XYZ Yes! X: Project due Y: Autograder down Z: Students panic 17

18. Common Cause  Another basic configuration: two effects of the same cause  Are X and Z independent?  Are X and Z independent given Y?  Observing the cause blocks influence between effects. X Y Z Yes! Y: Homework due X: Full attendance Z: Students sleepy 18

19. Common Effect  Last configuration: two causes of one effect (v-structures)  Are X and Z independent?  Yes: the ballgame and the rain cause traffic, but they are not correlated  Still need to prove they must be (try it!)  Are X and Z independent given Y?  No: seeing traffic puts the rain and the ballgame in competition as explanation?  This is backwards from the other cases  Observing an effect activates influence between possible causes. X Y Z X: Raining Z: Ballgame Y: Traffic 19

20. The General Case  Any complex example can be analyzed using these three canonical cases  General question: in a given BN, are two variables independent (given evidence)?  Solution: analyze the graph 20 Causal Chain Common Cause (Unobserved) Common Effect

21. Reachability  Recipe: shade evidence nodes  Attempt 1: if two nodes are connected by an undirected path not blocked by a shaded node, they are conditionally independent  Almost works, but not quite  Where does it break?  Answer: the v-structure at T doesn’t count as a link in a path unless “active” R T B D L 21

22. Three Amigos 22 Inactive Triples Causal Chain Common Cause (Unobserved) Common Effect

23. Reachability (D-Separation)  Question: Are X and Y conditionally independent given evidence vars {Z}?  Yes, if X and Y “separated” by Z  Look for active paths from X to Y  No active paths = independence!  A path is active if each triple is active:  Causal chain A  B  C where B is unobserved (either direction)  Common cause A  B  C where B is unobserved  Common effect (aka v-structure) A  B  C where B or one of its descendents is observed  All it takes to block a path is a single inactive segment Active TriplesInactive Triples

24. Example Yes 24 R T B T’T’

25. Example R T B D L T’T’ Yes 25

26. Example  Variables:  R: Raining  T: Traffic  D: Roof drips  S: I’m sad  Questions: T S D R Yes 26

27. Causality?  When Bayes’ nets reflect the true causal patterns:  Often simpler (nodes have fewer parents)  Often easier to think about  Often easier to elicit from experts  BNs need not actually be causal  Sometimes no causal net exists over the domain  E.g. consider the variables Traffic and Drips  End up with arrows that reflect correlation, not causation  What do the arrows really mean?  Topology may happen to encode causal structure  Topology only guaranteed to encode conditional independence 27

28. Example: Traffic  Basic traffic net  Let’s multiply out the joint R T r1/4 rr 3/4 r t tt 1/4 rr t1/2 tt r t3/16 r tt 1/16 rr t6/16 rr tt 28

29. Example: Reverse Traffic  Reverse causality? T R t9/16 tt 7/16 t r1/3 rr 2/3 tt r1/7 rr 6/7 r t3/16 r tt 1/16 rr t6/16 rr tt 29

30. Example: Coins  Extra arcs don’t prevent representing independence, just allow non-independence h0.5 t h t X1X1 X2X2 h t h | h0.5 t | h0.5 X1X1 X2X2 h | t0.5 t | t0.5 30  Adding unneeded arcs isn’t wrong, it’s just inefficient

31. Changing Bayes’ Net Structure  The same joint distribution can be encoded in many different Bayes’ nets  Causal structure tends to be the simplest  Analysis question: given some edges, what other edges do you need to add?  One answer: fully connect the graph  Better answer: don’t make any false conditional independence assumptions 31

32. Example: Alternate Alarm 32 BurglaryEarthquake Alarm John calls Mary calls John callsMary calls Alarm BurglaryEarthquake If we reverse the edges, we make different conditional independence assumptions To capture the same joint distribution, we have to add more edges to the graph

33. Summary  Bayes nets compactly encode joint distributions  Guaranteed independencies of distributions can be deduced from BN graph structure  D-separation gives precise conditional independence guarantees from graph alone  A Bayes’ net’s joint distribution may have further (conditional) independence that is not detectable until you inspect its specific distribution 33

34. Example: Alarm Network Burglary Earthquake Alarm John calls Mary calls

35. Reachability (the Bayes’ Ball)  Correct algorithm:  Shade in evidence  Start at source node  Try to reach target by search  States: pair of (node X, previous state S)  Successor function:  X unobserved:  To any child  To any parent if coming from a child  X observed:  From parent to parent  If you can’t reach a node, it’s conditionally independent of the start node given evidence S XX S S XX S 35

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