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4G: If you build it, will they come? Bassam Hajhamad inCode Telecom www.incodetel.com September 2 nd, 2009.

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Presentation on theme: "4G: If you build it, will they come? Bassam Hajhamad inCode Telecom www.incodetel.com September 2 nd, 2009."— Presentation transcript:

1 4G: If you build it, will they come? Bassam Hajhamad inCode Telecom www.incodetel.com September 2 nd, 2009

2 Page 2 Business Strategy Group (BSG) Corporate / Business Strategy - new market entry, mergers and acquisitions, divestment strategy, strategic planning, risk assessment, business cases development Financial Analysis and Modeling - business case and pro forma financial development Market Analysis – market research, market trial and launch planning, segmentation approaches and channel strategies Business Formation and Launch – growth strategies and product and service planning and development Strategic Sourcing – procurement strategies, RFP strategies, vendor management strategies Advanced Technology Group (ATG) Technology Strategy – spectrum strategies, migration strategies, architectural roadmap options, technology evaluations and operational requirements Program Management Office (PMO) Innovative Process & Tools – packaged and customized solutions to benefit customers with Wireless Networks; such as Wireless Pro, network optimization, quality assurance, and benchmark testing Business Strategy Group (BSG) Corporate / Business Strategy - new market entry, mergers and acquisitions, divestment strategy, strategic planning, risk assessment, business cases development Financial Analysis and Modeling - business case and pro forma financial development Market Analysis – market research, market trial and launch planning, segmentation approaches and channel strategies Business Formation and Launch – growth strategies and product and service planning and development Strategic Sourcing – procurement strategies, RFP strategies, vendor management strategies Advanced Technology Group (ATG) Technology Strategy – spectrum strategies, migration strategies, architectural roadmap options, technology evaluations and operational requirements Program Management Office (PMO) Innovative Process & Tools – packaged and customized solutions to benefit customers with Wireless Networks; such as Wireless Pro, network optimization, quality assurance, and benchmark testing To deliver innovative solutions and effective strategies at the intersection of business and technology. Industry Segments Service Offering Areas Wireless & Wireline Carriers Cable MSOs / Media Players Infrastructure Vendors Device OEMs Private Equity Emerging Players Customers: Mission: inCode is a management consulting firm focused entirely on the Telecom World

3 Page 3 4G network deployment is gaining momentum worldwide Technology: LTE Trials: Now Launch: 2010 Technology: LTE Trials: Now Launch: 2010 Technology: LTE Trials: Now Launch: 2010 Technology: LTE Trials: Now Launch: 2011 Technology: LTE Trials: Q4 09 Launch: TBA Technology: LTE Trials: Now Launch: Q4 2010 Technology: LTE Trials: Now Launch: 2010 Technology: WIMAX Trials: 2007 Launch: 2008 Technology: LTE Trials: Now Launch: 2012+ Technology: LTE Trials: Now Launch: 2012 Technology: WIMAX Trials: Now Launch: 2009 Technology: WiMAX Trials: Complete Launch: 2007 Technology: LTE Trials: Now Launch: 2010 With support from major operators and ecosystem players worldwide, LTE will become the mainstream technology by 2013, with WiMAX becoming more of a niche technology.

4 Page 4 Regulator Re-allocation of older spectrum for 4G technologies Open access & net neutrality Regulator Re-allocation of older spectrum for 4G technologies Open access & net neutrality 4G Launch Policy & RegulationDemand Side OEM Vendors & Application Providers Time to market advantage Proliferation of emerging devices, with rich mobile applications and video OEM Vendors & Application Providers Time to market advantage Proliferation of emerging devices, with rich mobile applications and video Wireless Carriers Delivery of higher bandwidth services and capacity Addressing the trend of declining ARPU Reducing OPEX & Cost/MB Leveraging existing 3G infrastructure Wireless Carriers Delivery of higher bandwidth services and capacity Addressing the trend of declining ARPU Reducing OPEX & Cost/MB Leveraging existing 3G infrastructure Supply Side Consumer Segment Anywhere, anytime, any device, any application High-speed, Internet-like, user-controlled experience Bandwidth-intensive apps Seamless and personalized mobility Consumer Segment Anywhere, anytime, any device, any application High-speed, Internet-like, user-controlled experience Bandwidth-intensive apps Seamless and personalized mobility Business Segment Emergence of machine-to- machine (M2M) applications Feature-rich mobile business solutions (e.g. video- conferencing) Business Segment Emergence of machine-to- machine (M2M) applications Feature-rich mobile business solutions (e.g. video- conferencing) 4G is more of a technology push than market pull Ultimately 4G will be a win-win scenario for carriers and consumers. It will enable advanced mobile internet applications at lower cost.

5 Page 5 Sources: iSuppli, ABI Research, Analysis Mason, Light reading, Alcatel-Lucent LTE vs. WiMAX Market Adoption Forecast Factors that will impact 4G subscriber growth forecast: Carriers’ capital investment decisions and available funding Overall economic recovery and broadband stimulus outcome Suppliers’ roadmap, chipset/device availability, and ecosystem support Product and service rationalization, including pricing National/regional government policies and funding Factors that will impact 4G subscriber growth forecast: Carriers’ capital investment decisions and available funding Overall economic recovery and broadband stimulus outcome Suppliers’ roadmap, chipset/device availability, and ecosystem support Product and service rationalization, including pricing National/regional government policies and funding 2105,04520,64464,501162,124 4G Subscribers Forecast By Region 4G subscriber growth forecast hinges on many factors 4G is about technology evolution and not revolution. A pragmatic approach to forecast 4G subscriber growth is more realistic than an overly optimistic approach.

6 Page 6 New initiatives & government policies are making 4G more attractive to consumers and driving adoption Stimulus Package U.S. economic stimulus package to support the deployment of wireless broadband to rural and underserved areas. Stimulus Package U.S. economic stimulus package to support the deployment of wireless broadband to rural and underserved areas. Bundled Services Telcos and Cablecos will leverage 4G to enhance its quad- play bundle and multiple screen offerings. Bundled Services Telcos and Cablecos will leverage 4G to enhance its quad- play bundle and multiple screen offerings. Open Access Facilitate competition through the gradual removal of the walled- garden. Non- traditional operators to serve the wireless market with open devices and mobile applications. Open Access Facilitate competition through the gradual removal of the walled- garden. Non- traditional operators to serve the wireless market with open devices and mobile applications. Wholesale & CE Devices Clearwire’s wholesale model will encourage new players/MVNOs to enter the market with new type of devices. Wholesale & CE Devices Clearwire’s wholesale model will encourage new players/MVNOs to enter the market with new type of devices. One key value of 4G is the way it can be used as a catalyst to stimulate innovation, competition, and new market development.

7 Page 7 4G enables multiple high-speed data applications across multiple devices Time Real Shifted UMPC Laptop Still Camera Music In-Car Navigation Camcorder Networked Gaming Mobile high-speed internet Location based services Road warriors focus HD video streaming, video calling, push-to-video In-Car data applications, 3D Navigation Photo and music upload and download Video-on-demand, video sharing HD Networked gaming, DVR Surveillance Fixed TV MID Smartphone Over-The-Top video streaming and home monitoring Remote-access of M2M device Upload of patient info Telepresence Home Automation Health Monitoring No subsidy for data-only device Low subsidy for dual mode devices (to support voice) Relatively low ARPU Driven by video-oriented applications More application-specific embedded devices Higher ARPU related to value- added service Enterprise and residential M2M applications More complicated ecosystem Low subsidy High ARPU opportunity 1 st Wave (Early Adopters) Low Bandwidth Devices 2 nd Wave (Early Majority) High Bandwidth Devices 3 rd Wave (Late Majority) Next-Gen & M2M Devices Video conferencing Internet Multimedia 2010-20112012-20142014+

8 Page 8 Uncertainty about the readiness and timing of voice applications (over 4G) LTE was designed to handle heavy data traffic and not optimized for voice or SMS Voice-over-WiMAX is not yet figured out from a device & infrastructure perspectives Short-Term Mid-Term Longer Term Time Potential Support of Voice over LTE Circuit Switch (CS) Fallback IP-based LTE doesn’t support legacy CS Leverage 2G/3G for traditional voice Circuit Switch (CS) Fallback IP-based LTE doesn’t support legacy CS Leverage 2G/3G for traditional voice Circuit-switch-over packet VoLGA: based on UMA and adoption is low 2G/3G likely to continue to support voice and SMS Circuit-switch-over packet VoLGA: based on UMA and adoption is low 2G/3G likely to continue to support voice and SMS IP Multimedia System (IMS) IMS for wireless is still being defined: Voice is not yet a mandatory requirement IP Multimedia System (IMS) IMS for wireless is still being defined: Voice is not yet a mandatory requirement ? 2010201120122013 ? With high 4G capital cost and declining voice ARPU, Voice-as-an-application is not a priority for carriers today and will not likely be available until 2012.

9 Page 9 Carriers’ strategic options will drive various business models 1. Carrier’s Carrier 2. Embedded Device 3. Convergence Play Strategic OptionsBusiness Model Approach Most Cost Effective Network (Wholesale Model) My Network, Your Device (Network-Inside Model) Bundled Services Focus (Three-Screen Model) Key Target Markets Other carriers, MVNOs, content providers, device vendors and Internet portals Electronics manufacturers, high-end & mass consumers and vertical enterprises Consumer/Residential (family oriented) and SMBs Underserved and unserved markets 4. Rural Broadband Customized Offerings (Low-Cost Model) 4G will enable carriers to pursue multiple strategic options at once. However, new pricing models are expected to emerge based on multi-tier QoS.

10 Page 10 Q&A Thank you! bhajhamad@inCodetel.com (858) 539.3801


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