1. AFRL/CISM Collaborations
Nick Arge
Space Vehicles Directorate
Air Force Research Laboratory

2. Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling (CISM)
CISM: NSF funded consortium to construct a comprehensive physics-based numerical simulation model that describes the space environment from the sun to the earth.
CISM Member Institutions
AFRL/CISM Collaborations:
Partnership on science and model development.
Application of CISM products to AF interests to facilitate transition to operations.
Magnetosphere (Perry, Ginet, Hudson, Albert, Young)
Validation of GEO MeV electron forecast models.
Integrate radiation belt particle & diffusion models with coupled LFM MHD & RCM codes.
Ionosphere (Stan Solomon et al./Odile de la Beaujardiere, John Retterer, Keith Groves)
Couple CISM ionosphere model with C/NOFS "bubble calculator.”
Compare scintillation results with SCINDA and C/NOFS data.
Solar (Arge, Odstrcil, Geymehr, Owens, Spence, McGregor)
The Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) coronal/ solar wind model.
WSA+ENLIL coupling.

3. (e.g., 1D Kinematic model, ENLIL, HAF)
WSA Coronal & Solar Wind Model
Source Surface
PFSS Model
Schatten Current Sheet Model
5-30 Rs
2.5 Rs
Solar Wind Model
(e.g., 1D Kinematic model, ENLIL, HAF)
(5-30Rs to 1AU)
Plot courtesy Sarah McGregor (BU/CISM)

4. WSA Model Coronal Output
PFSS+SCS MODEL (R = 5.0 R)
Predicted Solar Wind Speed at 5.0 R
(New Empirical Relationship )
Coronal Holes
km s-1
Coronal Field (5.0R)
Where:
fs = Magnetic field expansion factor.
θb = Minimum angular distance that an open field footpoint lies from nearest coronal hole boundary (i.e., Angular depth inside a coronal hole)

5. Solar Wind Speed and IMF Polarity in the Ecliptic Driven by Daily Updated Photospheric Field Maps
IMF directed radially toward from Sun.
IMF directed radially away from Sun.

6. Predictions & Observations:Near Solar Maximum
Solar Wind Speed Predictions & Observations
IMF Polarity Predictions & Observations

7. Predictions & Observations:Near Solar Minimum
Solar Wind Speed Predictions & Observations
IMF Polarity Predictions & Observations

8. Boston University Validation of WSA Event-Based Approach: (High Speed Events)
Contingency Tables
Observed
HSE
No HSE
Model
166 36 64 -
Observed
Missed
Model
False
( Owens et al., JGR 2005)
Validated 8 years of WSA predictions
Event-based approach: high speed enhancements (HSE):
Captures more than 72% of the observed HSE events
Most of the false HSEs are small
Missed HSEs: are small events or transients
Timing of HSEs shows no offset. Slight underestimation of magnitude of fastest events – probably due to transients

9. Validating Coronal Models Using Coronal Holes
Solar Minimum
Solar Maximum
Short After Solar Maximum
de Toma, Arge, and Riley (2005)
MAS/SAIC

10. WSA Coronal - ENLIL MHD Solar Wind Model Coupling
Output of WSA MODEL
(R = R)
ENLIL 3D MHD Solar Wind Model
Coronal Field Strength
Solar Wind Speed
Output of ENLIL MODEL at 1AU

11. Summary
1) AFRL and CISM collaborating/partnering on science and model development.
Solar, Magnetosphere, & Ionosphere realms.
Application of CISM products to AF interests to facilitate transition to operations
2) The WSA model
Predicts ambient solar wind speed and IMF polarity 1-7 days in advance.
Serves as the CISM baseline coronal/solar wind model.
Solar wind predictions validated using 8 years (~1 solar cycle) of predictions.
Coronal hole predictions compared with observations and MAS/SAIC MHD model.
Running in real-time at NOAA/SEC, CCMC, and AFRL(AFWA).
Officially delivered to CISM in Dec
3) Joint AFRL-CISM effort to couple the WSA+ENLIL model.
Useful forecasting tool and basic research model.