1. IGIS CAS MG 2014 - Geneva JH Butler 23 April 2014 Implementing an Integrated, Global Greenhouse Gas Information System (IG 3 IS) James H. Butler, NOAA Global Monitoring Division Towards a Global Carbon Observing System: Progress and Challenges 23 April 2014 (Slides 1-10 excerpted from CAS TECO 2013)

2. IGIS CAS MG 2014 - Geneva JH Butler 23 April 2014 Page 2 A global challenge Society is attempting to advance efforts to reduce CO 2 emissions and will likely do so even more in the future Mitigation efforts will vary by nation, region, & emission sector (energy, industry, etc.), and will be diverse in their approach The complexity & variability of the carbon cycle, the scale of problem, and the number of GHGs are challenging, but surmountable. Emission reduction approaches (e.g., international, national, state) all require independent, scientific monitoring to support verification and policy decisions.

3. IGIS CAS MG 2014 - Geneva JH Butler 23 April 2014 Page 3 Tools for Global Monitoring of Greenhouse Gases “Bottom-up” estimate (Accounting = “checkbook”)  Emissions reporting  Reported and “verified” offsets  Site-specific measurements “Top-down” estimate (Validation = “bank statement”)  Comprehensive atmospheric observation system  Ecosystem and ocean observations Reanalysis (compares checkbook with bank statement)  Transport model  Assimilation  Regional fluxes (emission and uptake)

4. IGIS CAS MG 2014 - Geneva JH Butler 23 April 2014 Page 4 Gaps in the current integrated observing system Insufficient density of the observations over the ground, sea and in the free atmosphere Insufficient measurements of isotopes and co-emitted gases for source attribution Incompatible observations on different scales (e.g. global and local observations) and in different media (e.g. atmospheric observations vs. pCO2 observations) Insufficient complexity and performance of transport models on global/regional and local scales

5. IGIS CAS MG 2014 - Geneva JH Butler 23 April 2014 Page 5 Atmosphere Biosphere Ocean Surface Ocean Biosphere Inventories & Fluxes Emission Inventories Deep Ocean Surface Based (Satellite) Aircraft Satellite Mapping Data Integration Products CO 2 and Other GHGs WMO Domain (with partners, e.g., GCOS, CEOS)

6. IGIS CAS MG 2014 - Geneva JH Butler 23 April 2014 So, What is WMO Doing? WMO Capabilities  WMO Global Atmosphere Watch o Long term observing network for greenhouse gases o Other observing networks for atmospheric composition (e.g., aerosols, ozone) o Support for “megacities” research  World Weather Research Programme o Improving forecast models Seasonal to sub-seasonal predictions (with WCRP) Polar Prediction Program (with WCRP) Tropical Meteorology Others.. Improving transport resolution  World Climate Research Programme o Improving climate models o Focused efforts, e.g., extreme events, statistical downscaling, etc. Page 6

7. IGIS CAS MG 2014 - Geneva JH Butler 23 April 2014 IG 3 IS Implementation (within WMO) Bimodal approach  Active Orgs within WMO o ICOS, China, Brazil, INACP, SE Asia, et al.  Partners o FAO, UNEP, ICSU, GEO, GCOS, GOOS, et al. Page 7 CAS Mgt (May 2013) WMO/GAW GGMT (Jun 2013) CAS (Nov 2013) WMO Exec Council (Jun 2014) WMO Congress (Jun 2015) Who should have responsibility for service delivery? GFCS? WMO is working to coordinate its contribution.

8. IGIS CAS MG 2014 - Geneva JH Butler 23 April 2014 Page 8 Some surface-based networks ICOS WMO Global Atmospheric Watch FluxNet TCCON NOAA AGAGE

9. IGIS CAS MG 2014 - Geneva JH Butler 23 April 2014 Coordinating Networks in Developing Countries Page 9 Tefé Emerging Networks anchored with WMO/GAW stations Using WMO/GAW Standards Taking part in GAW QA/QC Activities Sharing Data Openly Placing Data into World Data Centre for Greenhouse Gases

10. IGIS CAS MG 2014 - Geneva JH Butler 23 April 2014 “New” Players for Observations IAGOS (Aircraft)  Builds on efforts from MOSAIC (Euro airlines), CARIBIC (Lufthansa), and CONTRAIL (Japan Airlines)  Fourth package approved for CO2 and CH4 on commercial aircraft o Operational, but not much funding for instrument construction  Many airlines are interested in participating Earth Networks (Surface)  Investing $25M over 5 years to enhance global network with ~100 sites o Enhancement of ~40% over existing network o Committed to high quality positions  Business Plan? Satellites (Existing and *Forthcoming)  AIRS/IASI (passive, mid-tropospheric sensors)  SCHIAMACHY (passive sensor)  GOSAT (passive sensor, large footprint)  *OCO-2 (passive sensor, small footprint)  *ASCENDS (active laser)

11. IGIS CAS MG 2014 - Geneva JH Butler 23 April 2014 Accomplishments for IGIS 2014 Status of Observations Europe (ICOS) – continued development of infrastructure, setting up sites, cross-Atlantic coordination North America – continued cooperation among US, Canada, Mexico through CARBONA; US receiving restoration of funds for global and North American networks Asia – US-China bilateral, biennial agreement between NOAA and CMA continues to receive high level support in both nations; developing greenhouse gas observing networks is part of this annually renewed, high level agreement (Strategic and Economic Dialog). Korea enhancing observations at several sites. Networks in India? South America – Brazil network producing substantial, useful data on greenhouse gases; currently lacks assurance of long-term funding Southwest Pacific – Australia, Indonesia, developing national networks through international cooperation (including AGAGE, NOAA) Africa – Cape Verde Islands (?), Cape Point; and Assekrem, Namibia, (NOAA measurements) Page 11

12. IGIS CAS MG 2014 - Geneva JH Butler 23 April 2014 Accomplishments for IGIS (2014 Status of Modeling & Satellites) Modeling Improvements – ECMWF, NOAA doing some; universities, national institutions beginning to look at using weather models to improve transport in GHG models  Higher resolution GHG monitoring will also help improve transport for weather predictions and Earth system analysis  No coordination of efforts so far Satellite Retrievals – Early successes noted from SCIAMACHY; Significant international attention to GOSAT; international community looking forward to OCO-2 launch this year  Efforts are still exploratory at this time and will be on a steep learning curve during the next decade  OCO, GOSAT, and SCIAMACHY scientists working together to improve retrievals Page 12