1. EFFECTS ON PEOPLE AND ENVIRONMENT HUMAN HEALTH TERRESTRIAL AND AQUATIC ECOSYSTEMS (including crops and fisheries) CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS AIR & WATER CHEMISTRY STRATOSPHERIC OZONE DEPLETION Climate effects (atmospheric circulation)OZONE DEPLETING SUBSTANCES Report of the Environmental Effects Assessment Panel 26 th Meeting of the Parties to the United Nations Montreal Protocol 16-21 November 2014 Paris, France Co-chairs: Prof Janet Bornman (Aus), Prof Min Shao (China), Prof Nigel Paul (UK)

2. THE 2014 ASSESSMENT REPORTS SIGNIFICANT SCIENTIFIC ADVANCES IN UNDERSTANDING THE MECHANISMS BY WHICH STRATOSPHERIC OZONE DEPLETION CAN AFFECT HUMANS, OTHER ORGANISMS, AND THE PHYSICAL AND CHEMICAL PROCESSES OF THE ENVIRONMENT, PRIMARILY THROUGH RESPONSES TO UV RADIATION. 44 authors/co-authors from 17 countries, and 45 reviewers. Report assessed 1600 research papers, covering subject areas from cancer biology to construction polymers, and from marine phytoplankton to global changes in UV radiation. Report of the Environmental Effects Assessment Panel EFFECTS ON PEOPLE AND ENVIRONMENT HUMAN HEALTH TERRESTRIAL AND AQUATIC ECOSYSTEMS (including crops and fisheries) CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS AIR & WATER CHEMISTRY THIS SUMMARY WILL FOCUS ON THE MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS RELEVANT TO THE EFFECTS OF OZONE DEPLETION ON PEOPLE AND ECOSYSTEMS (NOT MECHANISTIC ADVANCES)

3. STRATOSPHERIC OZONE DEPLETION Climate effects (atmospheric circulation)OZONE DEPLETING SUBSTANCES EFFECTS ON PEOPLE AND ENVIRONMENT HUMAN HEALTH TERRESTRIAL AND AQUATIC ECOSYSTEMS (including crops and fisheries) CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS AIR & WATER CHEMISTRY INCREASED ULTRAVIOLET- B (UV-B) RADIATION UV-B radiation = 280-315nm

4. CHANGES IN UV-B RADIATION WITH THE SUCCESSFUL MONTREAL PROTOCOL With few exceptions, changes in UV-B since the 1990s are small, and due less to the effects of ozone depletion than to other factors (cloud; snow and ice cover). Large short-term increases in UV-B have been measured at some locations in response to episodic decreases of ozone at high latitudes, including the Northern hemisphere. Arctic ozone depletion in spring 2011 led to measured short-term increases (80-160%) in UV-B in Alaska, Canada, Greenland & Scandinavia, and modelled increases (15-25%) at lower latitudes.

5. Now a body of published research modelling the changes in UV radiation that would have occurred over the 21 st century WITHOUT successful control of ODS. CHANGES IN UV-B RADIATION WITHOUT THE MONTREAL PROTOCOL The calculated clear-sky UV index for November 2065 in the “expected future” (with the Montreal Protocol) compared with that in the “world avoided” (with no Montreal Protocol). From Newman and McKenzie, 2011 Values over 11 are considered extreme Maximum UVI without ozone depletion is approx. 25 WITH MONTREAL PROTOCOLWITHOUT MONTREAL PROTOCOL Without the Montreal Protocol, by the end of 21 st century UV levels around the globe would have exceeded, often substantially, levels previously experienced even in the most extreme environments.

6. EFFECTS ON PEOPLE AND ENVIRONMENT HUMAN HEALTH TERRESTRIAL AND AQUATIC ECOSYSTEMS (including crops and fisheries) CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS AIR & WATER CHEMISTRY Human health and exposure to solar UV radiation INCREASED ULTRAVIOLET- B (UV-B) RADIATION

7. WITH THE MONTREAL PROTOCOL (NOW) THE BALANCE BETWEEN THESE CONTRASTING EFFECTS OF UV IS LARGELY DETERMINED BY PERSONAL CIRCUMSTANCES AND BEHAVIOUR Damaging effects of too much UV Human health and exposure to solar UV radiation Damaging effects of too little UV RESEARCH OVER THE LAST 30 YEARS HAS CLARIFIED THAT DAMAGE TO HUMAN HEALTH CAN RESULT FROM EITHER TOO MUCH OR TOO LITTLE UV RADIATION

8. WITH THE MONTREAL PROTOCOL (NOW) With the Montreal protocol, changing behaviour with regard to sun exposure by many fair-skinned populations has probably had a more significant effect on human health than increasing UV-B irradiance due to ozone depletion. Strategies to avoid over-exposure to solar UV radiation remain important for public health, but should aim to balance the harmful and beneficial effects of sun exposure. Human health and exposure to solar UV radiation

9. WITHOUT THE MONTREAL PROTOCOL (WORLD AVOIDED) LARGE INCREASES IN UV, SO THAT THE DAMAGING EFFECTS OF TOO MUCH UV BECOME DOMINANT. Damaging effects of too much UV OZONE DEPLETION PERSONAL CIRCUMSTANCES AND BEHAVIOUR Human health and exposure to solar UV radiation Damaging effects of too little UV Damaging effects of too much UV

10. SHORT TERMLONG-TERM SKINSunburn Increased skin-cancers Basal cell & squamous cell carcinomas Malignant melanoma EYES Inflammation (photo- conjunctivitis) Increased cataract and other eye diseases IMMUNE SYSTEM: immune suppression leading to increased susceptibility to infection, reduced response to vaccinations Human health and exposure to solar UV radiation

11. WITHOUT THE MONTREAL PROTOCOL (WORLD AVOIDED) Percentage increase in annual UV dose in 2030 in the “world avoided” (with no Montreal Protocol), compared with the present day. From van Dijk et al., 2013 Human health and exposure to solar UV radiation

12. Total number of new cases of skin cancer per million people per year avoided by the Montreal Protocol in the year 2030. From van Dijk et al., 2013 WITHOUT THE MONTREAL PROTOCOL (WORLD AVOIDED) Models can, necessarily, only estimate skin cancers “world avoided”, and further refinement is required but the “ball- park”, estimate of two million fewer cases of skin cancer a year by 2030 indicates the scale of the health benefits of the Montreal Protocol. Human health and exposure to solar UV radiation

13. Effects of ozone depletion on ecosystems EFFECTS DUE TO ODS REPLACEMENTS OZONE-DEPELTION- RELATED CHANGES IN CLIMATE EFFECTS ON PEOPLE AND ENVIRONMENTs HUMAN HEALTH TERRESTRIAL AND AQUATIC ECOSYSTEMS (including crops and fisheries) CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS AIR & WATER CHEMISTRY INCREASED ULTRAVIOLET- B (UV-B) RADIATION

14. No new evidence that predicted TFA accumulation will pose a significant threat to aquatic ecosystems. Effects of ozone depletion on ecosystems EFFECTS DUE TO ODS REPLACEMENTS EFFECTS ON PEOPLE AND ENVIRONMENTs HUMAN HEALTH TERRESTRIAL AND AQUATIC ECOSYSTEMS (including crops and fisheries) CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS AIR & WATER CHEMISTRY HFCs degrade to produce tri- fluoroacetic acid (TFA) which accumulates in water bodies. No new negative environmental effects of the substitutes for the ozone depleting substances or their breakdown-products have been identified

15. Improved understanding of: role of solar UV in air quality (e.g. aerosols, ground-level ozone) and water chemistry (e.g. heavy metals), and that such changes may affect ecosystems. that solar UV radiation has significant direct effects on many organisms and environmental processes, and of the mechanistic basis for such responses. INCREASED ULTRAVIOLET-B (UV-B) RADIATION Effects of ozone depletion on ecosystems EFFECTS ON PEOPLE AND ENVIRONMENTs HUMAN HEALTH TERRESTRIAL AND AQUATIC ECOSYSTEMS (including crops and fisheries) CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS AIR & WATER CHEMISTRY

16. New understanding highlights the vulnerability of organisms and environmental processes (including food production) to very large increases in UV caused by uncontrolled stratospheric ozone depletion. However, there have been no “world-avoided” models for these effects, so their magnitude in a world where the Montreal Protocol had not controlled ozone-depleting substances has not been quantified. Effects of ozone depletion on ecosystems WITHOUT THE MONTREAL PROTOCOL (WORLD AVOIDED)

17. With a few exceptions, changes in UV-B irradiances due to factors such as cloud, snow and ice cover, and UV penetration in to water bodies have a more significant effect on ecosystems than UV changes due to ozone depletion over the last three decades. Southern hemisphere ecosystems have responded to severe ozone depletion there, partly due to increased UV radiation, partly due to climate- mediated effects. Effects of ozone depletion on ecosystems WITH THE MONTREAL PROTOCOL (NOW)

18. EFFECTS ON PEOPLE AND ENVIRONMENT Effects of ozone depletion on ecosystems OZONE-DEPELTION- RELATED CHANGES IN CLIMATE CHANGES IN CLIMATE DUE TO OZONE- DEPLETION ANTARCTIC STRATOSPHERIC OZONE DEPLETION ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION PATTERNS REGIONAL CLIMATE TERRESTRIAL AND AQUATIC ECOSYSTEMS (including crops and fisheries) HUMAN HEALTH CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS AIR & WATER CHEMISTRY RAINFALL TEMPERATURE WIND

19. Effects of ozone depletion on ecosystems Widespread climate-mediated ecological changes in the S hemisphere correlated with the Antarctic ozone “holes” since the 1980s. Increased tree growth in southern Alps. Decreased tree growth due to drought. Slower moss growth & changes in lake biodiversity Rapid changes in phyto-plankton communities

20. EEAP REPORT OVERVIEW Co-chairs: Prof Janet Bornman (Aus), Prof Min Shao (China), Prof Nigel Paul (UK) The success of Montreal Protocol in preventing large, wide-scale increases in UV radiation has now been quantified through modelling “the world avoided”. Because large increases in UV have been prevented, major effects of ozone depletion on human health have been avoided. The scale of damage to health in the “world avoided” is beginning to be quantified. Major effects of ozone depletion on most ecosystems have also been prevented, but the effects of Antarctic depletion on regional climates is having measurable impacts in the S hemisphere, even outside Antarctica.