2. Exam Monday slides up on web page review questions up on web page

3. Minority Representation Why value, what effects Descriptive –legislature mirrors population Substantive –legislature approves policies in group’s interest

4. Minority Representation Why value? Fairness –history of explicit disenfranchisement Empowerment –Trust –Participation –Contacting representatives

5. Minority Representation Descriptive US pop, 2000 –White71%, 86% of US House –Hispanic12%, 4% of US House –African Am12%, 9% of US House –Asian/Pacific 4%, 1% of US House –Native Am..7%, n/a

6. Minority Representation Descriptive Representation How facilitate via elections? Voting Rights Act Amendments –registration without representation? –maximize opportunities for real representation? –since 1970s, Act used to challenge local election systems that ‘dilute’ minority representation

7. Minority Representation Majority Minority Districts –Local “at-large” elections original target –“sweep effect” group w/ 40% could lose all seats –Gingles v. Thornberg, 1986 “at-large” illegal if: –minority group politically cohesive –minority could be a majority in potential district –majority votes as block against minority

8. Minority Representation Racially polarized voting –in parts of US, this has been a fact of life –southern parts of the US, in particular majority minority –do the math: if white majority won’t vote for minority candidates.....

9. Minority Representation US House districts also suspect Minority / Majority Districts –Remedy: Minority / Majority Districts 1990 US Congress Redistricting –Maximize number of majority / minority districts in US House, state legislatures –Bush Dept. of Justice, Latino and African American litigants in synch

10. Minority Representation Majority Minority Districts –once estimated that district must be at least 65% minority to guarantee election of minority candidate Congress elected in 1992 –first since new system –record number of African Americans, Latinos

11. Minority Representation Majority Minority Districts Partisan consequences –Overwhelmingly safe Democratic seats –Mostly in South, Southwest –Demise of Democratic voters in “influence districts” –Surrounding districts more competitive for GOP –1992 Bad election overall for Dems (9 seat loss)

12. Minority Representation Majority Minority Seats Partisan Consequences? –1994 ‘Republican Revolution’ –GOP gain 54 seats many gains in southern states some in formerly majority Dem districts. –GOP assumed control of US House / Senate

13. Minority Representation Challenges to Majority Minority Districts: –‘Unfair’ to white voters –trade-off, loss of substantive representation –“Bizarre” contours to districts difficult to draw, at times

14. North Carolina as Example 1991 State leg plan, 1 minority CD –state 22% African American, 12 districts –‘proportionality’ = at least 2 seats (2.64) Population more concentrated in North Dem state legislature changed plan to add 2nd minority district

15. North Carolina 12th CD, 1992, 64% Black WSJ: “political pornography”

16. North Carolina as Example Shaw v. Reno (1993) –legal challenge to NC 12th CD map when a State concentrates a dispersed minority population in a single district by disregarding "traditional districting principles such as compactness, contiguity, and respect for political subdivisions" the State is drawing a racial gerrymander that is subject to strict scrutiny

17. North Carolina as Example Shaw v Reno 1993 ‘By perpetuating such notions, a racial gerrymander may exacerbate the very patterns of racial bloc voting that majority-minority districting is sometimes said to counteract’

18. North Carolina as Example Shaw v. Reno 1993 not –race-based redistricting not always unconstitutional –states did need to comply with Section 2 and Section 5 of Voting Rights Act –but –but...race can’t be main factor, district must be compact

19. North Carolina 12 CD, 1997; 52% white New map, another lawsuit

20. North Carolina as Example Cromartie v. Hunt, 1998 –complaint alleged that the new 1st and 12th congressional districts are unjustified racial gerrymanders. The new 12th, was "fruit of the poisonous tree"--the poisonous tree being the old 12th and the poison being its racially gerrymandered origins

21. North Carolina as Example Cromartie v. Hunt, 1998 12th of 1997 was noncompact and showed evidence that race was the predominant factor in its design. The Court noted that as the district wound through certain counties and towns, the deciding factor in which precincts it picked up along the way seemed to be race rather than party.

22. Third Time’s a Charm? NC 12th CD, 1998 More compact, but not quite...

23. NC 12th CD post 2000 census, 47% white, 45% Black Represented by Mel Watt (D) since 1993

24. Partisan View of Law? Shaw case –two judges appointed by Democrats and one by a Republican. –ruled against complaint three times to uphold a plan or the use of a plan. –Each time the Republican dissented. Cromartie case –two Republican appointees and one Democratic appointee. –ruled 2-1 in favor of complaint, with the Democratic appointee dissenting

25. Minority Representation Future of Majority Minority Districts Minority litigants sensitive to partisan consequences (substantive rep.) –in 2000, tables turned re: GOP vs. Dems Compactness –depends on segregation What about groups that are geographically dispersed –Latinos?

26. Minority Representation Alternatives to Majority Minority Districts Cumulative Voting –A remedy in several VRA cases at state and county levels in TX, SD, AL, NC

27. Minority Representation Cumulative Voting How’s it work –‘modified at-large’ system –multi-member districts –Voter casts votes equal to number of seats being selected –voter can ‘plump’ all votes to one candidate, spread votes around...

28. Minority Representation Semi-proportionate –threshold of exclusion = 1/(m + 1) –2 seats up = 33% –3 seats up = 25% –4 seats up = 20% –5 seats up = 17% –6 seats up = 15 %

29. Minority Representation assume 3 seats up, 10,000 voters (30,000 votes) If ‘at large,’ 65% white voters, 35% Latino voters 6500 white voters, 3500 Latino if racially polarized votingif racially polarized voting....

30. Minority Representation Cumulative Voting 3 seat example Ethn.namevotes for seat 1: WA6,000 elected LF3,500 WH 500 seat 2 WB4,000 elected LD3,500 WE2,500 seat 3: WC 6,500 elected LG 3,500

31. Minority Representation CV, 3 seat example; 600 votes shift Ethn.namevotes for seat 1: WA6,000 elected LF3,500 WH 500 seat 2 WB3,400 LD3,500 elected WE3,100 seat 3: WC 6,500 elected LG 3,500

32. Cumulative Voting Evidence –more candidates –more campaigning –more turnout –more minority representation

33. Minority Representation Cumulative Voting Minority representation w/o the acrimony? Not automatic Not ‘tokenism’ Cross-racial coalitions?

34. Minority Representation Is racially polarized voting a thing of the past? If so, how defend majority-minority districts? Any evidence that we are ‘beyond race?’