1. Hayman - Waldo- Black Forest Has anything changed? Hayman June 17, 2002

2. Hayman June 18

3. Black Forest Fire – June 12, 2013 What has changed: Trends – large fires, structural loss Similarities – fire behavior, time of day “New Normal”- extreme fire behavior Complacency – public and government

4. June 26, 2012 Mountain Shadows area 17:00 Trend? Large fires over 100,000 acres 1990-1999 31 fires over 100,000 acres - 3.1 per year average 2000-2014 146 fires over 100,000 acres – 10.5 per year average Acres Per Fire 1960 - 43 acres per fire 1980 - 70 acres per fire 1990 - 80 acres per fire 2000-2014 - 89 acres per fire

5. Hayman June 18, 2002 13:00 Similarities Month of June Hayman June 8-28 Waldo June 23-July 11 Black Forest June 11-20 Time of day Structural loss - greatest between 1400-1900 hrs. Acres lost – greatest between 1400-1900 hrs. Largest number of resources committed 1400-1900 hrs.

6. Losses Hayman – 132 homes, * 6 fatalities Waldo Canyon – 347 homes, 2 fatalities Black Forest - 486 homes, 2 fatalities * 5 Oregon firefighters killed enroute, 1 respiratory fatality due to smoke from the fire

7. Structural Survival Factors Common to Hayman, Waldo and Black Forest Mitigation / Hazard Fuel reduction (D-space) Building construction - roof, siding, decks Fire Behavior – ember showers, wind driven embers spotting, flame impingement Secondary ground fire - 73% survive fire front (Cohen) Fire Suppression Action

8. Environmental Damage Water Sheds, Habitats, Specie replacement Hayman - 39 million in environmental rehab Waldo – millions and counting Black Forest - millions and counting Economic Losses 10 of millions and counting Insurance companies cancelling or not insuring

9. Firefighter observations regarding structural Survivability: “ We engaged structures where owners had provided us with defensible space” “ Structures that survived in badly burned areas had been mitigated” “There were limited resources, we had to triage structures, those with D-space or had fuels removed were structures where resources were assigned” “Fire behavior was extreme, we were told to use a ‘Fire Front Following’ tactic, when we got back in there, we were surprised to see how many structures survived the fire front” “There was no time to stay and defend the subdivision, the fire crowned and we were ordered to a safety zone, when we returned, homes with class A roofs and clearance survived, we were able to save them from ground fires and embers”

10. Hayman June 18

11. “New Normal” is extreme 125% increase in acres per fire in last 50 years Prior 1999- annual average of 3 fires over 100,000 acres 2000-2014 – 10.5 fires annually over 100,000 acres 1990 – 1999 – average of 800 structures lost annually 2000 – 2014 – average of 2670 annually 7 of last 10 years wildland fire largest property loss in U.S. Waldo June 26

12. Complacency ? 2003-2013 25% reduction in federal firefighters Colorado Air Corps Research facility in Rifle Colorado Division Fire Prevention Control Local intervention / changes/ action Prescott IHC - 2013

13. Firefighter and IMT member observations: “You would think they would have learned from past fires” “I can not believe how many homes have not been mitigated” “What do they expect us to do? I’m not going to put my people in front of that (fire) and risk firefighter lives if they can’t even make an effort to help us” “Does any one listen?” ( to our fire prevention messages) “ It was good to see some D-space, it gave us a chance” “Strategy and Tactics (structural) are decided on many factors, most importantly defensible space and mitigation.”

14. Public must embrace: Building codes Mitigation Hazard Fuel reduction Inter-Governmental Cooperation Situational Awareness – weather, environment Discussion – questions? Be vigilant. Thank-you, Jim Schanel