1. Future Role of Satellite Data in NCEP’s Numerical Models GOES Users Conference Boulder, CO Dr. Louis Uccellini Director, NCEP October 1, 2002 NCEP: “Where America’s Climate and Weather Services Begin”

2. Overview ?Background: Three major components for satellite assimilation into models ?Motivation: Use of satellite data in OPERATIONAL numerical models ?Current Status: Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation ?Future: Role of satellite data in “unified” modeling system for climate and weather prediction

3. Historical Aspects of Data Used in Numerical Models Insitu data 1990 Limited use of derived sounding data in models All LEO 250K obs/day Atmosphere 19602000 Satellite radiances ~85 % of data in models Nearly all LEO 1 million obs/day Surface/ocean atmosphere Key factors: data/instruments science of data assimilation computer and communications capacity 2002 Satellite radiances ~97% of data Predominantly LEO; some GEO 95 million obs/day Surface/ocean atmosphere

4. Operational NH SH Impact of Satellite Data on Operational Forecasts Reanalysis NH SH Operational NH SH Anomaly Correlation Model Improvement Related to: Use of Radiances AMSU Model Resolution Physics

5. Motivation for a NASA/NOAA/DoD Partnership to Address Future Challenges Improve exploitation of existing satellite data in operational models –LEO and GEO –Infrared and Microwave –Operational and Research Prepare for future data –Reduce assessment time from launch to application –Account for much larger data volume –Need for an end-to-end instrument design and application Leverage multi-agency resources

6. 5-Order Magnitude Increase in Satellite Data Over 10 Years Year Count (Millions) Daily Upper Air Observation Count Year Satellite Instruments by Platform Count NPOESS METEOP NOAA Windsat GOES DMSP 199020102000199020102010-250ch Year 2002

7. Satellite Data Utilization # of obs (millions/day) 95% of useable data 95% of useable data 48% of useable data # of obs (mil/day)

8. Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation created July 2, 2001 Increase uses of current satellite data in NWP models Develop the hardware/software systems needed to assimilate data from the advanced satellite sensors Advance the common NWP models and data assimilation infrastructure Develop common fast radiative transfer system Assess the impacts of data from advanced satellite sensors on weather and climate predictions Reduce the average time for operational implementations of new satellite technology from two years to one Accelerate use of research and operational satellite data in operational numerical prediction models Goals:

9. JCSDA Partners NASA/Goddard Data Assimilation Office NASA/Goddard Seasonal Interannual Prediction Project NOAA/NESDIS Office of Research & Applications NOAA/OAR Office of Weather and Air Quality NOAA/NCEP Environmental Modeling Center US Navy Office of Naval Research US Air Force Air Weather Agency (XOW)

10. Organizational Structure NASA & NOAA Joint Oversight Board Directors of: NOAA NCEP: L. Uccellini(Chair) Goddard ESD: F. Einaudi NOAA ORA: M. Colton NOAA OWAQR: D. Rogers Joint Center Staff Center Director: Stephen Lord (Acting) Deputy Director: Fuzhong Weng – NESDIS Deputy Director: L.-P. Riishojgaard - DAO Technical Liaisons: EMC – J. Derber NSIPP – M. Rienecker OWAQR – A. Gasiewski ORA – D. Tarpley Senior Scientist – TBD Contractor Support: George Ohring (NESDIS) Secretary Advisory Panel Rotating Chair Between NASA, NOAA Science Steering Committee

11. Recent Accomplishments Land emissivity model tested in NCEP operational models Positive impacts with AMSU data over land (May,2002) Operational implementation (October, 2002) New Data used in NCEP operational models SSM/I, TRMM microwave imager precipitation estimates SSM/I, AMSU cloud liquid water GOES-10 IR radiances QuikSCAT data Preparation for AIRS Computer installed at NASA to deliver data within 180 minutes of ingest Fast radiative model developed, documented, delivered, undergoing testing Sample data set delivered to NWP Centers “Foundation” Science Issues and Priorities agreed to: Basis for AO

12. “Foundation” Science Radiation Surface Focus: Development of fundamental improvements to radiative transfer model to allow better use of radiances. - Soundings near cloud; hence, emphasis on microwave Focus: Improvement of surface emissivity models to allow better use of observations over land, snow, and ocean. - Improve use of data close to the surface.

13. Scientific Priorities in Next Five Years 1. Improve radiative transfer model 2. Prepare for advanced instruments 3. Advance techniques for assimilating cloud and precipitation information 4. Improve emissivity models and surface products 5. Improve use of satellite data in ocean data assimilation

14. Next Steps Infrastructure: –Data lines –Computer (NASA/NOAA exploring enhanced computer capabilities ) Science Priorities: Develop Announcement of Opportunity to engage research community in the “foundation” science (released Sept. ’02) Output –AIRS Advanced Infared Sounder –IASI Interoferometric Atmospheric Sounding Instrument –NPP (CrIS, ATMS) NPOESS Preparatory Program (Cross track Infared Sounder, –ABI/S Advanced Baseline Imager and Sounder –GIFTS Geosynchronous Infared Fourier Transform Spectrometer –SSMIS Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder

15. GIFTS- IOMI Geosynchronous Imaging Fourier Transform Spectrometer – Indian Ocean METOC (Meteorology and Oceanography) Imager –Will provide highly detailed information about temperature, water vapor and winds to aid in the observation and prediction of severe weather conditions and to extend the range of global weather forecasts. –Scheduled for launch in late 2005 – over Western Hemisphere in 2006, then to Indian Ocean in 2007 –Provides radiance information over a 3000 x 3000 km area in < 10 minutes –Provides pathway to GOES - R

16. GIFTS - IOMI Challenges –Volume of data –How to use in “targeted“ mode –GEO vs LEO for infrared information –Validation, assessment, field programs (THORPEX)

17. Next Steps Solidify JCSDA Management, Advisory Panels Space Computer Resources AO based on foundation science issues (Sept. ’02) AIRS Assessment NPOESS preparation Get ready for GIFTS Address Implications of common global model needed for the JCSDA

18. Framework of Where NCEP is Headed: FY2005 and Beyond JCSDA (distributed) Global “Test Bed” will be needed Probable Boulder “Test Bed” …

19. Summary Satellite data critical to NWP/forecast advances JCSDA provides a bridge from assessment to operational utilization of satellite data Progress being made (Quikscat, TRMM) –AIRS assessment next major activity Issues being addressed for existing and future satellite systems: –GEO and LEO –Microwave and Infrared