1. 1 Northern Hub – the business case Duncan Law 26 June 2012

2. 2 Why invest in rail – a reminder

3. 3 The economics 1.Within city regions 2.Between city regions 3.To access international gateways ECONOMIC GROWTH Adequate capacity Reliable journeys Reasonable journey times

4. 4 Constraints in meeting service aspirations Options for resolving constraints Service specification for new infrastructure Value of new specification Identification of economic outputs The economics – key corridors Identify the economic gap Compare the North GVA per capita to London & South East Identify how rail can contribute Connecting business Labour to jobs Moving goods

5. 5 The economics – key corridors Timetable-driven passenger service benefit per unit Generalised Journey Time (GJT) improvement Crowding benefits per incremental AM peak seat Freight benefits per incremental freight path to Trafford Park.

6. 6 Constraints in meeting service aspirations Options for resolving constraints Service specification for new infrastructure Value of new specification Identification of economic outputs The economics – analysis WEBTAG Revenue Value of time Non user benefits Crowding WEBS Agglomeration Labour supply Imperfect competition

7. 7 The economics – analysis

8. 8 Constraints in meeting service aspirations Options for resolving constraints Service specification for new infrastructure Value of new specification Identification of economic outputs The economics – Conditional outputs 1. Capacity and Flexibility 2. Carbon Reduction 3. Performance 4. Journey Times 5. Growth Centres in Greater Manchester 6. Connectivity to Deliver Economic Benefits 7. Manchester Airport 8. Trans Pennine 9. North South Links and High Speed Rail 10. Freight

9. 9 Delivering faster, more frequent services

10. 10

11. 11 Funding for Northern Hub - Ordsall Chord

12. 12 Further funding for Northern Hub

13. 13 The evolution of the programme SERVICE OUTPUTSBUSINESS CASE INTERVENTIONS

14. 14 HS2 and the Northern Hub

15. 15 Manchester Victoria: before…..

16. 16 ….and after

17. 17 Electrifying across the North West… Phase 3 Phase 2aPhase 1 Phase 2b Phase 4

18. 18 …and across the Trans-Pennine route Micklefield Junction Heaton Lodge Junction Copley Hill East Junction Colton Junction HUDDERSFIELD LEEDS STALYBRIDGE GUIDE BRIDGE MANCHESTER VICTORIA Mirfield East Junction Neville Hill Depot CORE ROUTE TO BE ELECTRIFIED EXISTING ELECTRIFIED EXISTING NON-ELECTRIFIED TRANS PENNINE ELECTRIFICATION CORE ROUTE ECML Ashburys West Junction Phillips Park Junction

19. 19 Summary CP4 Northern Hub North West Electrification CP5 renewal and enhancement portfolio HS2 SERVICE OUTPUTSBUSINESS CASE INTERVENTIONS

20. 20 Next steps HLOS summer 2012 @networkrailNH