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Rural Economy Research Centre Situation and Outlook Conference, 9th December 2008 SITUATION AND OUTLOOK FOR CATTLE & SHEEP 2008/2009 J. Breen, K. Hanrahan,

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Presentation on theme: "Rural Economy Research Centre Situation and Outlook Conference, 9th December 2008 SITUATION AND OUTLOOK FOR CATTLE & SHEEP 2008/2009 J. Breen, K. Hanrahan,"— Presentation transcript:

1 Rural Economy Research Centre Situation and Outlook Conference, 9th December 2008 SITUATION AND OUTLOOK FOR CATTLE & SHEEP 2008/2009 J. Breen, K. Hanrahan, & A. Kinsella Rural Economy Research Centre

2 Situation and Outlook Conference, 9 th December 2008 Overview of Presentation  Review of 2007 (NFS Data)  Situation in 2008  Outlook for 2009  Take Home Message

3 Rural Economy Research Centre Situation and Outlook Conference, 9th December 2008 Situation and Outlook for Cattle 2008/2009

4 Rural Economy Research Centre Situation and Outlook Conference, 9 th December 2008 Review of 2007 (NFS Data)  Gross Output (Market-based) Excludes SFP, REPS, Disadvantaged Area Includes SCWS in 2008 and 2009  Gross Margin & Net Margin Therefore excludes SFP, REPS, Disadvantaged Area

5 Rural Economy Research Centre Situation and Outlook Conference, 9 th December 2008 Variation in Total Production Costs 2007 all Cattle farms

6 Rural Economy Research Centre Situation and Outlook Conference, 9 th December 2008 Variation in Total Production Costs 2007 all Cattle farms

7 Rural Economy Research Centre Situation and Outlook Conference, 9 th December 2008 Financial Performance per LU 2007 all Cattle Farms

8 Rural Economy Research Centre Situation and Outlook Conference, 9th December 2008 Estimates for 2008

9 Rural Economy Research Centre Situation and Outlook Conference, 9 th December 2008 Gross Output 2008  Prices up on 2007 Ban on Brazilian beef imports Reduced Supply R3 Steers up 16% O3 Cull Cows up 21%  Introduction of the Suckler Cow Welfare Scheme €80 per cow Approx 884,000 cows registered

10 Rural Economy Research Centre Situation and Outlook Conference, 9 th December 2008 Irish Beef Price for selected animals 2006 - 2008 Source: Bord Bia

11 Rural Economy Research Centre Situation and Outlook Conference, 9 th December 2008 Beef Production Systems  Four Production Systems focused on SS = Single Suckling RD = Rearing Dairy Farms WF = Weanlings to Stores/Finished SF = Stores to Finished

12 Rural Economy Research Centre Situation and Outlook Conference, 9 th December 2008 Gross Output 2008 by Production system Up €95 or 24% on SS 2007 NFS Average, 2008 Estimated

13 Rural Economy Research Centre Situation and Outlook Conference, 9 th December 2008 Costs of Production 2008  2008 Expenditure versus 2007 Feedstuffs up 20% Pasture and forage up 28% Energy up 20% All other Inputs up 6%

14 Rural Economy Research Centre Situation and Outlook Conference, 9 th December 2008 Gross Margin 2007 and 2008 by Production system 2007 NFS Average, 2008 Estimated

15 Rural Economy Research Centre Situation and Outlook Conference, 9 th December 2008 Gross and Net Margins in 2007 and 2008 by Production System System GM per LU 2007 GM per lu 2008 NM per LU 2007 2007 NFS Average, 2008 Estimated, 2009 Forecasted 174135151 RDWF 1 SF 2 160158165 -33-127-78 SS 141 195 -90 NM per LU 2008-64-93-135-72

16 Rural Economy Research Centre Situation and Outlook Conference, 9 th December 2008 Gross and Net Margins in 2007 and 2008 by Production System SSRDWFSF Gross Margin (€/LU) 2007 141174135151 Gross Margin (€/LU) 2008 195160158165 Net Margin (€/LU) 2007 Net Margin (€/LU) 2008 2007 NFS Average, 2008 Estimated

17 Rural Economy Research Centre Situation and Outlook Conference, 9 th December 2008 Gross and Net Margins in 2007 and 2008 by Production System SSRDWFSF Gross Margin (€/LU) 2007 141174135151 Gross Margin (€/LU) 2008 195160158165 Net Margin (€/LU) 2007 -90-33-127-78 Net Margin (€/LU) 2008 -64-72-135-93 2007 NFS Average, 2008 Estimated

18 Rural Economy Research Centre Situation and Outlook Conference, 9th December 2008 Outlook 2009

19 Rural Economy Research Centre Situation and Outlook Conference, 9 th December 2008 Gross Output 2009  Average Prices are expected to be largely unchanged compared to 2008  Suckler Cow Welfare Payment is expected to be lower €49 per cow assumed

20 Rural Economy Research Centre Situation and Outlook Conference, 9 th December 2008 Costs of Production 2009  2009 Expenditure versus 2008 Feedstuffs down 20% Pasture and forage down 11% Energy down 10% All other Inputs up 2%

21 Rural Economy Research Centre Situation and Outlook Conference, 9 th December 2008 Gross Margin 2007, 2008 and 2009 by Production system 2007 NFS Average, 2008 Estimated, 2009 Forecasted

22 Rural Economy Research Centre Situation and Outlook Conference, 9 th December 2008 Net Margin Per Hectare 2007, 2008 & 2009 All Farms 2007 NFS Average, 2008 Estimated, 2009 Forecasted

23 Rural Economy Research Centre Situation and Outlook Conference, 9 th December 2008 Returns to Production  Margin over Direct Costs and Disposable Fixed Costs  Non-Disposable Fixed Costs  Disposable Fixed Costs Hired Labour Machinery Operating Expenses Depreciation of Machinery Rent of Land

24 Rural Economy Research Centre Situation and Outlook Conference, 9 th December 2008 Returns to Production per Ha 2007, 2008 & 2009 All Farms 2007 NFS Average, 2008 Estimated, 2009 Forecasted

25 Rural Economy Research Centre Situation and Outlook Conference, 9 th December 2008 Situation and Outlook for Sheep 2008/2009

26 Rural Economy Research Centre Situation and Outlook Conference, 9 th December 2008 Sheep Meat Markets 2007/`08  Decline in Numbers Flock Numbers down from 35,300 to 33,700 Ave Flock Size down from 102 to 97 ewes  Lamb Slaughtering down 13% in Ireland France down 8%  NZ Lamb Exports down Expected to fall further by 23% in 2008/09  Led to higher EU and Irish lamb prices

27 Rural Economy Research Centre Situation and Outlook Conference, 9 th December 2008 Mid-Season Lamb - Financial Performance 2007 Output Direct Costs Gross Margin Source: Teagasc National Farm Survey 795 Average 351 444 1078 Top 1/3 331 747 €/Ha

28 Rural Economy Research Centre Situation and Outlook Conference, 9 th December 2008 Mid-Season Lamb - Technical Performance 2007 Lambing % Weaning % Source: Teagasc National Farm Survey 146 Average 134 Ewes/Ha 8.7 Kgs Lamb Carcass/Ha 216 150 Top 1/3 141 10.9 284

29 Rural Economy Research Centre Situation and Outlook Conference, 9 th December 2008 Quarterly Irish Lamb Prices, 2007-2008 Source: Bord Bia

30 Rural Economy Research Centre Situation and Outlook Conference, 9 th December 2008 Gross Margin €/ewe System Early Lamb Mid-Season lamb Hill-Blackface 2007 NFS Average, 2008 Estimated, 2009 Forecasted 555761 20072008 1 2009 2 515358 677 2006 46 42 4

31 Rural Economy Research Centre Situation and Outlook Conference, 9 th December 2008 Gross Margin €/ewe 200620072008 1 2009 2 Early Lamb 46555761 Mid- Season Lamb 42515358 Hill- Blackface 4677 2007 NFS Average, 2008 Estimated, 2009 Forecasted

32 Rural Economy Research Centre Situation and Outlook Conference, 9 th December 2008 Take Home Message  Cattle 2008 Prices up but a high cost year Net margin down on 2007 2009 Prices unchanged, costs expected to decline Net margins up on 2007 & 2008 Overall 2/3’s still have negative net margin 1/3 have negative net margin when we look at margin over direct and disposable fixed costs

33 Rural Economy Research Centre Situation and Outlook Conference, 9 th December 2008 Take Home Message  Sheep Irish Sheep Numbers/Flock Numbers in Decline Prices in second quarter were up 18% Gross Margin per ewe in 2008 up 4% on 2007 Gross Margin per ewe in 2009 up 8% on 2008

34 Rural Economy Research Centre Situation and Outlook Conference, 9 th December 2008 Thank You

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