1. WRAP Modeling

2. WRAP Setup Two-pronged approach Jump start Regional Modeling Center (RMC) Jump start contractor MCNC/ENVIRON RMC UCR/ENVIRON

3. Modeling Approach 1996 MM5 – EPA 1996 NEI modified by WRAP Mobile 6 look-alike SMOKE (modified to do REMSAD) REMSAD CMAQ (Not Models 3) CB-IV w/ fast solver

4. Boundary Conditions Schematic of Grid Model Emissions Boundary Conditions Chemistry, Transport, Dispersion, Removal

5. Transport and Dispersion

6. How is the different from IAS Different model year (1996 versus 1992) Similar platform (grid model) GCVTC used reduced chemistry CMAQ uses full chemistry IAS – transfer coefficients Assumes linear changes CMAQ run for scenario

7. Visibility Components b ext = b SO4 +b NO3 +b OC +b EC +b Soil +b Coarse +b Ray b SO4 = 3 f(RH) [(NH 4 ) 2 SO 4 ] b NO3 = 3 f(RH) [NH 4 NO 3 ] b OC = 4 [OC] b EC = 10 [EC] b Soil = 1 [Soil] b Coarse = 0.6 [PM 10 -PM 2.5 ] b Ray = 10

10. Grand Canyon SO 4 and OC

17. Performance Ramifications Soil / Coarse inert – important to vis Won’t affect other species Inventory  model NO 3 smaller component of west visibility NO 3 / SO 4 tradeoff HNO 3 + NH 3  NH 4 NO 3 Dependent on available ammonia NO 3 and mobile

18. Relative Reduction Factors Requires monitoring data at site of concern Allows for model uncertainty

28. Issues / Challenges SMOKE QA 2 map projections with different models Boundary Conditions Fugitive Dust & Fire 2 projections through SMOKE time consuming (No further REMSAD)

29. “Better than BART” Not too much worse than BART? Class I area by area? Average over state? All model days? Only observed days?

30. Glide Path

31. Good News / Bad News RMC completed all SO 2 strategy runs Boundary states not treated consistently Wyoming sources May have adverse impacts in Iceland Enhancing QA on inputs before used Starting with list of past problems

38. Summary Modeling technology improved since GCVTC Still need improvements in science and inventories, particularly primary emissions One tool in the decision process Based on analysis to date, analysis will provide useful information

39. Further Information http://www.cert.ucr.edu/rmc jcv@den.nps.gov (303) 969-2808