1. TNC 2004, Rhodes Lajos Bálint, HUNGARNET/NIIF 1 Projecting Past into the Future Lajos BÁLINT HUNGARNET / NIIF lajos.balint@niif.hu TERENA Networking Conference, Rhodes, 7-9 June 2004

2. TNC 2004, Rhodes Lajos Bálint, HUNGARNET/NIIF 2 Introductory remarks A promising title – don’t be disappointed Title is selected by Session organisers (Jorge, Stelios)  accepted by author - in relation to the SEE region Do you consider it an easy topic? I did … but … (technology, operation, management,...: much easier!) What to talk about? (“boundary conditions”) Conference: One step ahead (evolution vs.status) Session: Networking Prospects in SEE Contribution: Projecting Past into the Future

3. TNC 2004, Rhodes Lajos Bálint, HUNGARNET/NIIF 3 Contents Background Overall objective Goals of the presentation Difficulties The past The future How to get there? A possible model Alternative options Potential results Tasks for all Questions Conclusions

4. TNC 2004, Rhodes Lajos Bálint, HUNGARNET/NIIF 4 Background SEEREN Digital divide - considerable gaps Emerging infrastructures International connectivity Preliminary actions A model project EC support Support from partner NRENs The results: A giant starting leap Greatly improved connectivity Breakthrough in awareness Entering the European network Gaps not yet eliminated The question marks: Sustainability The next steps How to handle the gaps

5. TNC 2004, Rhodes Lajos Bálint, HUNGARNET/NIIF 5 Overall objective Facing the digital divide – looking for solution A multifaceted problem Technical shortcomings Financial problems Expertise needs Organisational issues Legal-commercial environment Far reaching influence Education Research Innovation Competitiveness Cooperativeness IT proliferation + IS evolution Wide social-economical effects Perspectives for less developed NRENs: To be investigated To be improved

6. TNC 2004, Rhodes Lajos Bálint, HUNGARNET/NIIF 6 This presentation Goal of the contribution: Analysis (presentation) Evaluation (discussion)  Model (suggestion)  Method (proposal) Approach: Look for CEE-REN analogy Forecast: Projecting CEE-REN past into SEEREN future Intention: Find a recipe of sustainability and coming abreast Objective of the contribution: properly addressed messages –encouraging developing NRENs –urging developed NRENs convincing outlook

7. TNC 2004, Rhodes Lajos Bálint, HUNGARNET/NIIF 7 The difficulties Non-technical problems --- Non-technical solutions Non-technical questions) --- Non-technical answers Digital divide: Geographical (macro - micro) Disciplinary (access - aptitude) Typical issues: repeating themselves in space and time... SEE is just an example! (Today!)

8. TNC 2004, Rhodes Lajos Bálint, HUNGARNET/NIIF 8 Outlines of a model NREN groups: G1 - G2 -... - GN characterised by average S i measure of performance Digital divide: gaps between groups Gi and Gi-1 S i (t) < S i-1 (t) National development: gaps decreasing (Gi approaches Gi-1) S i (t+  t) - S i-1 (t+  t) < S i (t) - S i-1 (t) Fragmentation: N ~ 4 ?

9. TNC 2004, Rhodes Lajos Bálint, HUNGARNET/NIIF 9 Examples Examples in case of N = 4: SEE NRENs: ~ G3 CEE NRENs: ~ G2 (WE NRENs: ~ G1) (KCA NRENs: ~ G4) [European scene under consideration] [i > 4 not investigated here] [Some special cases also not considered] International co-operation: subsidiarity + solidarity Support of development: by G k to G i (normally i > k) Does this 0-level model work?

10. TNC 2004, Rhodes Lajos Bálint, HUNGARNET/NIIF 10 About the past (averages) CEE NRENs in early 90s: 2 orders of magnitude behind WE NRENs CEE NREN development from mid-90s to early 2000s: Organisational structure National coverage Integrated resources Uniform policy Joint lobbying Internal development International co-operation Multinational projects EC support TERENA, DANTE, consortia Gradual development

11. TNC 2004, Rhodes Lajos Bálint, HUNGARNET/NIIF 11 About the past (cont’d) CEE NREN position in mid-2000s: Gap mostly disappeared Equivalent opportunities Advanced infrastructure High standard of services Up-to-date applications Elevated expertise Prepared user community Demanding attitude Wide cooperativeness

12. TNC 2004, Rhodes Lajos Bálint, HUNGARNET/NIIF 12 About the future (averages) SEE NRENs in early 2000s: 2 orders of magnitude behind CEE NRENs An optimistic forecast: SEE NREN development from mid-2000s to early 2010s: Organisational structure National coverage Integrated resources Uniform policy Joint lobbying Internal development International co-operation Multinational projects EC support TERENA, DANTE, consortia Gradual development

13. TNC 2004, Rhodes Lajos Bálint, HUNGARNET/NIIF 13 About the future (cont’d) SEE NREN position in mid-2010s (optimistic projection): Gap mostly disappeared Equivalent opportunities Advanced infrastructure High standard of services Up-to-date applications Elevated expertise Prepared user community Demanding attitude Wide cooperativeness Key external + internal issues: Overall awareness (government, industry, …) Telecom market liberalisation Inclusiveness (coverage of user community) Leading edge (locally) Partnership (globally)

14. TNC 2004, Rhodes Lajos Bálint, HUNGARNET/NIIF 14 What to do? How to get there – what to do? [Don’t forget: 10 years is very short a period of time! But in 10 years SEE may also be part of the EU!] Needed: NREN devotedness and enthusiasm Immense integrated efforts Internal (moral + financial) support International co-operation (foreign help) Patient gradual progress Step by step elimination of digital divide CEE NRENs didn’t exactly copy WE NRENs SEE NRENs shouldn’t exactly copy CEE NRENs

15. TNC 2004, Rhodes Lajos Bálint, HUNGARNET/NIIF 15 Promising perspectives Some promising elements in development: better conditions for fast progress (organisational/political) slow-down in the developed NRENs (saturation effects) good examples to follow (start with novel approaches) well known traps to avoid (IXI, ATM, … procurement …) international co-operation (established frameworks) EC support (better than ever) Clever development / wise support: Good model needed (although no good general model!) (what is common, what is different?) Another giant step ahead: G i (t)  G i (t+  t) [G i (t+  t) ~ G i-1 (t)]

16. TNC 2004, Rhodes Lajos Bálint, HUNGARNET/NIIF 16 A possible model (Model to be further elaborated) Aggregate measures needed (to characterise level of development) Let the measure (status of the NRENs) be: S (t) Normalised parameters (p j, j = 1…P) to be involved in the measure: p1Users (users / population) p2Infrastructure(access capacity / users) p3Traffic (total traffic / users) p4Finances (NREN budget / users) (and some more) Measure: norm, eg. S ~ π (p j ) or S ~  (  p j 2 ) Model: G i ~ M [S i (t)], i = 1…N (NRENs and/or groups of NRENs comparable)

17. TNC 2004, Rhodes Lajos Bálint, HUNGARNET/NIIF 17 Progress / catch up Progress: S i (t+  t) > S i (t) Catch up: S i (t+  t) - S i (t) > S i-1 (t+  t) - S i-1 (t) Alternative catch up options: SlowS i (t+  t) < S i-1 (t) MediumS i-1 (t) < S i (t+  t) < S i-1 (t+  t) FastS i (t+  t) > S i-1 (t+  t) (G i to G i-1 gap eliminated) Basic question:  t = ? Continuous follow-up needed: Progress, speed of catch up to be investigated Conditions to be analysed, further steps to be planned

18. TNC 2004, Rhodes Lajos Bálint, HUNGARNET/NIIF 18 Foreseeable results Supposed progress for  t ≈ 10 years: G3 to G2 gap almost disappears! Potential positive outcome: R&E competitiveness + cooperativeness (stability on NREN level) Country-level economic development (stability on national level) Improved international relations (stability on regional level) Pre-condition of a positive outcome: Joint interests  joint efforts needed

19. TNC 2004, Rhodes Lajos Bálint, HUNGARNET/NIIF 19 Tasks for all of us (but major role of NRENs) Supportive political and legal environment Political/moral support on behalf of European/international organisations Stable, conflict-free political situation in the country Awareness of the importance of R&E networking on behalf of the government Political/moral support to the NREN community on behalf of the government Appropriate legal environment for NREN operation and services Preferable customs regulations and taxation rules/conditions Liberalisation, as early as possible, of the telecommunication market Enabling technical and infrastructural background Availability of affordable networking equipment Availability of reasonably priced background (telecom) infrastructure Scalability of the NREN infrastructure (allowing smooth gradual upgrades)

20. TNC 2004, Rhodes Lajos Bálint, HUNGARNET/NIIF 20 Tasks for all of us (cont’d) Availability of financial resources Annually increasing local governmental funding (preferably close to 100 %) Availability of additional sources of funding (internal/external) Stable NREN organisation and operation Stable and harmonious country-wide co-operation in research networking Well-defined powers and responsibilities, clear decision making mechanisms Politically independent NREN operation Top-down management + bottom-up representation of user interests Clear, GEANT-conform, consistently applied AUP Availability of technical expertise within the NREN Expertise for developing/operating the network infrastructure Reproducible development/management/technical/administrative staff Organisational and technical support on behalf of the European NRENs Demanding user community (exploiting the benefits of the infrastructure) Continuous feed-back of the user experiences to the developing/operating staff SERENATE Report: excellent source of information/advices! (NRENs, R&E institutions, politicians/governments, regulators, operators, EC)

21. TNC 2004, Rhodes Lajos Bálint, HUNGARNET/NIIF 21 To be discussed Statements (asking for agreement or disagreement): conditions saturation in developed NRENs good examples (CEE …) known traps co-operation support sustainability aspects chances of closing up what to do, how to help

22. TNC 2004, Rhodes Lajos Bálint, HUNGARNET/NIIF 22 Conclusions Good chances Joint efforts needed Joint benefits foreseeable