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REVIEW OF CURRENT STATUS OF THE AGRICULTURE SECTOR IN ZIMBABWE INTER-AGENCY CONSULTATION MEETING ON USER INTERFACE PLATFORM (UIP), AGRICULTURE, FOOD SECURITY.

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Presentation on theme: "REVIEW OF CURRENT STATUS OF THE AGRICULTURE SECTOR IN ZIMBABWE INTER-AGENCY CONSULTATION MEETING ON USER INTERFACE PLATFORM (UIP), AGRICULTURE, FOOD SECURITY."— Presentation transcript:

1 REVIEW OF CURRENT STATUS OF THE AGRICULTURE SECTOR IN ZIMBABWE INTER-AGENCY CONSULTATION MEETING ON USER INTERFACE PLATFORM (UIP), AGRICULTURE, FOOD SECURITY AND WATER SECTORS OF THE GLOBAL FRAMEWORK FOR CLIMATE SERVICES, FAO, ROME, ITALY, 26 - 28 SEPTEMBER 2011 BARNABAS CHIPINDU, DEPARTMENT OF PHYSICS, UNIVERSITY OF ZIMBABWE

2 PRESENTATION OUTLINE INTRODUCTION CROP PRODUCTION LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION CLIMATE SERVICES CONCLUSION

3 INTRODUCTION Agriculture is the backbone of Zimbabwe's economy The sector provides employment for large number of the population Agriculture provides about 60 percent of all raw materials for industry

4 INTRODUCTION CONT. The country receives most of during summer months (November to March) A considerable potential exists for the production of irrigated crops during dry months in areas where stored water supplies are available

5 INTRODUCTION CONT. Recent droughts have caused the agricultural sector to experience crop failure and livestock losses Rain-fed crop production is also affected by climate variability and change while winter crop production is affected by frost

6 INTRODUCTION CONT. Agriculture Sector has undergone significant transformation in recent years as a result of land redistribution programme Categories of practitioners in the agriculture sector : communal, A1, A2, old resettled (OR), small-scale commercial farmers (SSCF) and large-scale commercial farmers (LSCF) and more recently peri- urban

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9 CROP PRODUCTION

10 Most crops experienced a decline during the period 2000 to 2004, with a marked decrease in 2008 but there were increases in production of some crops such as maize and groundnuts, in 2005, 2006, 2007 and 2009 CROP PRODUCTION

11 Wheat production has decreased almost six times during the period 2000 to 2009 due to lack of financial support Barley production in 2009 was more than double that in 2000, a factor which may be attributed to market forces Potato production steadily increased from 2000 to 2008 before decreasing slightly in 2009

12 CROP PRODUCTION CONT. Potato production steadily increased from 2000 to 2008 before decreasing slightly in 2009 Sweet potato production increased slightly while tea production shows no significant change Sugarcane production was steady from 2000 to 2004, decreased in 2005 and 2006 before becoming steady for the remainder of the period

13 CROP PRODUCTION (TONNES) ESTIMATES CropArea (ha) Area (ha) Change (%) Production (Mt) Change (%) Yield (t/ha) Yield (t/ha) Change (%) 2009/102010/11 2009/102010/11 2009/112010/11 Banana4 000 0180 000 020 0 Cabbage4 9895 3006149 670159 000630 0 Citrus3 000 060 000 020 0 Coffee900 02 700 0330 Cotton338 270379 68912260 000220 219-15 0.770.58 -15 Finger Millet54 37163 2871612 40316 627340.230.3135 Groundnuts424 532426 8060.5186 214230 475240.440.5423 Maize1 8035422 096 035161 327 5721 451 62990.810.821.2 Onion4 0204 2004120 600168 00039304033 Pearl Millet189 643164 895-1349 84044 666-100.260.3119 Irish Potato3 2003 8001986 400110 2002827297 Sorgum386 584304 693-21131 64494 789-280.340.3812 Soybean48 01060 1242570 25684 173201.461.40-4 Sugar beans3071526 778-1317 20013 121-240.460.497 Sugar cane36 17438 00052 338 3002 565 0001064.667.55 Tea3 500 010 500 0330 Tobacco100 287148 16048123 400177 792441.231.20-2 Tomato6 2006 5005217 000260 00020354014

14 CROP PRODUCTION CONT. Production of most crops increased during the 2010/11 cropping season when compared with the 2009/10 season Significant increases were registered by tobacco (44 %) onion (39%), finger millet (34%) and Irish potato (28%) Production of cotton, pearl millet, sorgum, sugar beans and sunflower declined with sorgum experiencing the largest decline of 28 percent

15 CROP PRODUCTION CONT. Positive increases in crop production were achieved despite the 2010/11 season being not ideal for cropping There was too much rainfall in January 2011 resulting in water logging, nutrient leaching, and poor weed control The wet spell was followed by a prolonged dry spell from the end of January to the end of March 2011

16 CROP PRODUCTION CONT. Increased tobacco production can be attributed to increased cropped area in response to high tobacco selling prices offered the previous season

17 MAIZE PRODUCTION Maize production increased by 9% Increase to larger hectarage and better yields in the high potential maize producing areas The high potential maize producing areas did not experience the prolonged dry spell

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20 LIVESTOCK NUMBERS SpeciesNumber Cattle5 156 753 Sheep502 205 Goats3 072 850 Pigs258 091 Donkeys371 795 TOTAL9 361 694

21 LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION Calving rates stood at 45% in April 2011 which is an increase of 10% when compared to 2010 The national average cattle mortality was 4.4% which is slightly above the acceptable 3% The pig sow herd was 7 000 in 2009 and increased to 12 000 in 2010

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25 THERE WAS A 26% DECLINE IN THE NUMBER OF GOATS IN 2010 COMPARED TO 2009 THIS WAS PROBABLY DUE TO INCREASED MARKET DEMAND SHEEP POPULATION DECREASED FROM 2001 TO 2007 BEFORE STARTING TO INCREASE LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION

26 PIG PRODUCTION DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM 2 000 DUE STOCK FEED SHORTAGES THE NATIONAL COMMERCIAL SOW HERD DECLINED FROM 14 000 IN 2000 TO 9 000 IN 2004, RECOVERED TO ABOVE 16 000 SOW UNITS IN 2007, DECLINED IN 2009 TO ABOUT 7 000 AND THEN RECOVERED TO 12000 PIG PRODUCTION

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28 THE PRODUCTION OF POULTRY AND POULTRY PRODUCTS HAS BEEN STEADILY INCREASING SINCE 2007 DAY OLD BROILER CHICK PRODUCTION WAS ABOUT 2 MILLION PER MONTH IN 2011 POULTRY PRODUCTION

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30 DAIRY HERD DECREASED FROM 97 460 IN 1995 TO 25 000 IN 2009 THE DAIRY HERD INCREASED TO 28 000 IN 2010 MILK PRODUCTION DECREASED MARKEDLY FROM 1995 TO 2010 DAIRY PRODUCTION

31 THE DECLINE IS MILK PRODUCTION HAS BEEN ATTRIBUTED TO SHORTAGES OF ANIMAL FEED, LOW PRICES PAID FOR MILK PRODUCTION AND IMPORTS OF CHEAPER MILK AND MILK PRODUCTS FROM THE REGION DAIRY PRODUCTION

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33 SHORT-RANGE WEATHER FORECAST (UP TO THREE DAYS) TEN-DAY WEATHER FORECASTS SEASONAL WEATHER FORECASTS FROST PREDICTION DURING THE COLD SEASON, CLIMATE SERVICES FOR AGRICULTURE

34 FIRE – DANGER ESTIMATES DURING THE DRY SEASON EARLY WARNING OF EXTREME WEATHER CLIMATE SERVICES FOR AGRICULTURE

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36 ZONE 4: NORTH-EASTERN HALF ZIMBABWE. INCREASED CHANCES OF NORMAL TO BELOW-NORMAL RAINFALL ZONE 5: SOUTH-WESTERN HALF OF ZIMBABWE. INCREASED CHANCES OF NORMAL TO BELOW-NORMAL RAINFALL SEASONAL WEATHER FORECAST (OND 2011)

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38 ZONE 4: NORTHERN HALF OF ZIMBABWE. INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL TO NORMAL RAINFALL ZONE 5: SOUTHERN HALF OF ZIMBABWE. INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL TO NORMAL RAINFALL SEASONAL WEATHER FORECAST (JFM 2012 )

39 THE NUMBERS FOR EACH ZONE INDICATE THE PROBABILITIES OF RAINFALL IN EACH OF THE THREE CATEGORIES, BELOW-NORMAL, NORMAL AND ABOVE-NORMAL. SEASONAL WEATHER FORECAST

40 THE TOP NUMBER INDICATES THE PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL OCCURRING IN THE ABOVE- NORMAL CATEGORY, THE MIDDLE NUMBER IS FOR NORMAL AND THE BOTTOM NUMBER IS FOR BELOW- NORMAL SEASONAL WEATHER FORECAST

41 DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURAL EXTENSION (AGRITEX) DOWNSCALES THE SEASONAL WEATHER FORECAST AND ADVISES FARMERS ON CROPPING PATTERNS AND LIVESTOCK NUMBERS OTHER SERVICES

42 DURING THE GROWING SEASON THE NATIONAL EARLY WARNING UNIT WITHIN AGRITEX IN CONSULTATION WITH THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES DEPARTMENT PRODUCES AND DISTRIBUTES THE CROP AND LIVESTOCK SITUATION REPORT TO STAKEHOLDERS OTHER SERVICES

43 CROP AND ANIMAL PRODUCTION IS AFFECTED BY CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE PROVISION OF CLIMATE SERVICES IN A TIMELY MANNER CAN ASSIST THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR TO INCREASE PRODUCTION CONCLUSION

44 A MAJOR CHALLENGE IS THE PRODUCTION OF HIGH QUALITY CLIMATE PRODUCTS AND TIMELY PROVISION CLIMATE SERVICES TO USERS THAT ARE MOST THAT ARE MOST VULNERABLE TO AND HAVE THE LEAST ADAPTIVE CAPABILITY OF THE NEGATIVE IMPACTS OF THE WEATHER AND CLIMATE CONCLUSION

45 THANK YOU, GRAZIE


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