Presentation on theme: "Africa Adaptation Programme"— Presentation transcript:
1 Africa Adaptation Programme NMS requirements for GFCS related research and capacity developmentJoseph D. IntsifulData and information Management ExpertThis presentation outlines the key responsibilities of country participants in building their tier-1 and tier-2 infrastructure as part of their contribution to the establishment of the AAP multi-tier infrastructure. We provide key ideas that were developed and shared among participants of the AAP-ICTP workshops on Development, Use and Management of Climate Data Servers.We also provide technical support and services to countries through our helpdesk to support the procurement of HPC/Climate servers, installation, use and management of HPC/Climate data servers. We also support improving country access to robust climate data and building capacities for information management.WMO GFCS Workshop, WMO, Geneva, 10 – 12 OCTOBER 2011Supporting Integrated and Comprehensive Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation in Africa
2 Content Background - nature of the problem of capacity in NMS Need for innovative approaches to capacity developmentThe role of regional institutionsBuilding on existing regional programmesSummary and conclusionSupporting Integrated and Comprehensive Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation in Africa
3 BackgroundSupporting Integrated and Comprehensive Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation in Africa
4 Global Distribution of Disasters Caused by Natural Hazards and their Impacts (1980-2007) Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgiumc90 % of events70 % of casualties78 % of economic lossesare related to hydro-meteorological hazards and conditions.EconomiclossesLoss of lifeNumber ofeventsBetween 1980 and 2007, nearly 8500 natural disasters worldwide have taken the lives of nearly 2 million people and produced economic losses over 1.2 trillion US dollars. Recent statistics from the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters reveal that, of this total, some 90 per cent of the natural disasters, 70 per cent of casualties and 75 per cent of economic losses were caused by weather-, climate- or water-related hazards such as droughts, floods, windstorms, tropical cyclones and storm surges, extreme temperatures, land slides, wild fires or by health epidemics and insect infestations directly linked to the meteorological and hydrological conditions.4
5 Impacts of Climate-Related Extremes on the Rise ! Hazard intensity and frequency increasing linked to climate variability and change!Vulnerability andexposure on the rise !EnergyTransportationWater ResourceManagementIntensityStrong WindPeopleAgricultureUrban areasHeavy rainfall / FloodCaucasus: floods, droughts and landslidesCentral Asia: floods, droughts, avalanches and landslides10 % of the total population of Central Asia has been affected by disasters in the last 10 years, 2500 diedSand and dust stormHot spots: Tadjikistan and Fergana ValleyProjected Impact of Climate change (IPCC)Caucasus:increase in temperature, increase of heatwaves, precipitation intensity, and precipitation per extreme events will increase, runoff will decraeseDecrease in reservoir water levels itensifying landslides, increase of droughts and precipitationsBlack Sea level to riseIncrease snow melt causing flask floodsCentral AsiaGlacier meltingDecrease in mean annual precipitation, increase in the frequency of very dry spring, summer and automn seasonsCrop yield could decrease up to 30 %Changes in runoff could have significant effect on powe output of hydropower generating countriesIncrease in temnperature will increase the probability of avalanches and mudflowsMain economic sectors linked to HydoMet and climateHydropower and dam managementGeorgia 70 % HydroPower dependantKazakhstan possesses 5 operational hydroelectric plants which provide roughly 12% of the electricity generation.Tajikistan and Kirghizstan (90 % of hydroelec)AgricultureAgriculture (20-30 % of GDP in all countries except Kazakhstan)Importance of irrigation for cotton production, large irrigation infrastructureWaterKirghistan and Tadjikistan generate 70 % of the water of the whole Central AsiaKazahkstan, Ouzbekistan and Turkmenistan have large irrigated areas depending on these water resourcesTransportationLandlocked countriesNeed for long-termplanning to managemulti-sectoral risksDroughtHeatwavesFrequencySource: 2006 WMO DRR report
6 Climate Products for Risk Management and Adaptation Planning Short to medium term weather forecastsSeasonal to inter-annual climate forecastsDecadal climate trend analysisClimate change scenariosNext hour to 10 daysSeason to yearDecadeLong term climate changeShort-term planningEmergency PreparednessMedium-term operational planningRisk assessment and managementLong-term strategic planningInfrastructures planning, retrofittingLand zoningInternational negotiations with national policy implicationsDecision-making Timelines
8 Challenges to the delivery of products and services to support national development Over 88 % of NMHS in Africa, are challenged in delivering climate products and services to support DRR92% lack appropriate application software96% need upgrading of operational infrastructure to support DRR92% need technical training on production of climate products and services85% say lack of effective co-ordination with other agencies involved in DRR impacts negatively on operationsSource: 2006 WMO Country-level DRR survey
9 Need for innovative approaches to Capacity Development in NMS
10 Elements of Innovative Approaches Requires supporting NMS to develop Integrated and Comprehensive approaches to providing robust and user-relevant Climate Products and ServicesEfficient data and information management support to countries to effectively support National Planning and Decision Making MechanismsParticipatory stakeholder interactions to involve the user community in problem definition and solution development processes
11 Emerging thinking: User, Application and Service AFRICA ADAPTATION PROGRAMMESupporting Integrated and Comprehensive Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation in AfricaEmerging thinking: User, Application and ServiceLocal and national emergency serviceGovernmental authoritiesPublicLocal and national emergency serviceConstruction companiesFood suppliersUrban plannersLocal to national govtBanksCompaniesUSERSLegislatorsAPPLICATIONUrban & coastal areas seasonal preparation of Stocking of constrution materialsMedium to long-term strategic planningInfrastructure developmentLand use zoning and planningBuilding codesemergency planning activation and responseEg: evacuationLong-term strategic planningProbabilistic seasonal to inter annual forecast eg: probabilities of severity and intensity of extreme eventsShort to medium term weather forecastsEg tropical cyclone, storm surge, floodSERVICEDecadal climate trend analysisClimate change scenariosNext hour to 10 daysSeason to yearDecadeLong termclimate change
12 Integrated & Comprehensive Data Collection/Sharing Framework Integrated and comprehensive approaches are required for data collection. Both bio-physical and socio-economic data about our human and natural systems that is geo-referenced in space and time is critical. Data homogenization approaches are a must.Multi-disciplinary, Spatio-temporal and Data Platform-independent Standard
13 Integrated Analysis and Visualization Seamless Data Integration Integrated Data Analysis and ViewerIntegrating platform to integrate heterogeneous and multi-disciplinary datasetsIntegrated data analysis and visualization – frontend of Decision Support Tools for multi-sectoral assessmentThe establishment and use of early warning and decision support systems are being widely applied.Tier 0: A central computer that is large enough to host considerable amount of data located at International Centre for Theoretical Physics (AAP partner)Tier 1: Consist of four African Regional Centres with capacity large enough to guarantee that combined data created and stored is similar to that of Tier 0.Tier 2: Consist of all AAP Countries that will access the infrastructure by means of an internet - web interface.
14 Regional Multi-tier Climate Data storage and Computational InfrastructureTier 2: All member countriesTier 1: Regional CentresTier 0: Control CentreA multi-tier climate data server.
15 NMS Components Climate Products and Services Institutional Capacity Development – Leadership and organizational effectivenessLegal, Media and CommunicationInnovative FinancingKnowledge ManagementProject Management – Monitoring and EvaluationSupporting Integrated and Comprehensive Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation in Africa
17 Building Sustainable Regional Capacity Climate information as a regional public goodImprove capabilities within MNS through collective actionShare knowledge and experiences on nation-specific benefitsContribute to the reduction of asymmetries among countriesDemonstrate that a regional climate service can be enhanced as a result of improving national componentsAgree upon regional coordination mechanismsMobilize regional resources (financial, human and infrastructure) to promote regional capacitySupporting Integrated and Comprehensive Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation in Africa
18 Inter-Regional Technical Support Component (IRTSC) Climate Products and ServicesInstitutional Capacity Development – Leadership and organizational effectivenessLegal, Media and CommunicationInnovative FinancingKnowledge ManagementProject Management – Monitoring and EvaluationSupporting Integrated and Comprehensive Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation in Africa
19 A Key IRTSC FunctionFacilitate access to the best available data and information on climate variability, change and impacts to support dynamic, long-term national planning and decision-making mechanisms.Through:Assisting in the early analysis and design of national projects and, as those projects are being initiated and implemented.Providing assistance to countries in accessing/generating, collecting and analyzing best available data on climate variability, change and its impacts.Building capacities of countries to address operational challenges - establishment and use of e-infrastructure (ICT, data, tools, methods, network of institutions), early warning systems and decision support tools.
20 IRTSC support to national activities Country activities are designed to achieve ….Strengthening provision of climate products for national planning to enable countries manage both existing and future risks associated with climate change and other causesBuilding effective leadership and institutional frameworks for enhanced coordination and cohesion of activitiesSupporting the piloting of innovative research initiativesIdentifying a range of financing options for sustained operationBuilding knowledge management systems and promoting information sharingBuilding mechanisms to ensure successful implementation of activitiesactivities are designed to ensure that inter-regional expertise and capacity development is provided to countries including.....Advice and assistance relating to appropriate use of climate information in government decision/ policy-making and planning mechanismsSupport for leadership development and institutional reform as well as enabling individual developmentEncouraging exposure to world best practices - data, tools and methodsSupport in finding innovative funding options (e.g. public-private partnerships)Creation of region-wide databases and learning opportunitiesSupport for project management to enforce monitoring and evaluation
21 Establishing and strengthening strategic networks Built/strengthened network at different scale/level:in-country linkages between climate products and services providers, policy/decision makers and end-users (disaster management institutions, NGOs, private and public sectors institutions).strategic networks with key regional centres (ACMAD, CIIFEN, ACPC and RSMCs) and International Climate Centres (UKMO, NCAR, Meteo France, etc).strategic networks with key international institutions (WMO, UNFCCC, WFP, ISDR, UNDP, UNEP, IFRC, ICTP, etc).
22 In-country technical assistance - mentoring, trouble shooting and advisory services Developed a Helpdesk to enable rapid response to problem resolution – established a local network of problem-solvers, mentors and advisors.In-country technical support for:services on data and information management: data collection, analysis, e-infrastructure, tools and methodsSupport procurement, use and management of operational infrastructure - early warning systems and decision support tools.
23 Building on existing regional programmes Supporting Integrated and Comprehensive Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation in Africa
24 Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs) Climate forecasts could be of substantial benefit to society in adapting to and mitigating the impacts of climate variability and change.RCOFs produce and disseminate a regional assessment (using a consensus-based approach) of regional climate for the upcoming season.RCOFs bring together national, regional and international climate experts, on an operational basis, to produce regional climate outlooks based on input from NMHSs, regional institutions, Regional Climate Centres (RCCs) and Global Producing Centres of long range forecasts (GPCs) .Through interaction with sectoral users, extension agencies and policy makers, RCOFs assess the likely implications of the outlooks on the core socio-economic sectors in the region and explore potential applications of these outlooks.RCOF sessions feed into national forums to develop detailed national-scale climate outlooks and risk information including warnings for communication to decision-makers and the public.Supporting Integrated and Comprehensive Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation in Africa
27 Climate for Development in Africa (ClimDev-Africa) Initiative Primary focus three areas:Generation and wide dissemination of reliable and high quality information on climatic situation in Africa.Capacity enhancement of policy makers and policy support institutions to integrate information on climate change into development programs.Implementation of pilot adaptation practices that demonstrate the value of mainstreaming climate information into development.Supporting Integrated and Comprehensive Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation in Africa
29 Summary & ConclusionDesign and implement climate services based on the identified users’ demandAssist in the generation of specific public policies regarding climate servicesEnsure alliances with private, public, community and mediaFoster the consolidation of multi-institutional frameworksDevelop a resource mobilization planEnsure the timely provision of training, e-infrastructure and knowledge networksEnsure formal commitments and alliances.Supporting Integrated and Comprehensive Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation in Africa
30 Summary and Conclusion Helpdesk for effective in-country technical support and services should be established at the regional levelData and information management strategy should be developed and implemented.Relevant networks and partnerships to support data and information management should be established.Use existing regional and international projects to harness national resources and talents (e.g. CORDEX initiative).Development of e-infrastructure for data and information management, early warning and decision support tools for national planning and development.
31 Targeted hands-on training to address specific needs of countries. Summary and ConclusionTargeted hands-on training to address specific needs of countries.Continuously improve the e-infrastructure, tools and methods as updates become available.Joint initiatives with partners to deliver products and services to support countries.
32 Summary and Conclusion Appropriate national and regional frameworks should be established and negotiated with involvement of all stakeholders – national ownership.Research partnerships would enhance regional and North-South collaboration – improve delivery of technical support and services.Improved e-infrastructure would enhance the capacity of countries to provide a wide range of robust climate products and services in a timely manner.