1. Mining the Data Jo Wiggans Director

3. The Workshop includes: What is in the Aimhigher data cave What is in the Aimhigher data cave The uses of statistics in Aimhigher The uses of statistics in Aimhigher Targeting and the allocation of resources Targeting and the allocation of resources Digging into the data to uncover hidden needs Digging into the data to uncover hidden needs

4. Action Research Volume 6(2): 123–127 Copyright© 2008 From small local projects to those with large-scale national policy outcomes and international implications, action research provides the means not only to define more clearly what is wrong – to clarify the problematic features of a situation – but also to identify what is right– the strengths and assets that provide the base from which to construct effective and sustainable solutions. … moving from understanding to practical action is an integral part of the action research process. Ernie Stringer, Meghna Guhathakurta, Mwajuma Masaigana and Steve Waddell

5. 30 - Action Research as a Strategy for Advancing Community-Based Natural Resource Management30 - Action Research as a Strategy for Advancing Community-Based Natural Resource Management Document(s) 33 of 34 Doug Henderson Action Research as a Strategy for Advancing Community-Based Natural Resource Management Doug Henderson

6. Whats in the Aimhigher data cave? UCAS and HESA data on the local population UCAS and HESA data on the local population School PLASC analysis – deprivation, ethnicity, gender, attainment, FSM, School PLASC analysis – deprivation, ethnicity, gender, attainment, FSM, Detailed pupil profiles – FSM, ACORN, IDACI, LAC, FFT scores and predicted scores, actual attainment grades, SEN and School Action, etc…. Detailed pupil profiles – FSM, ACORN, IDACI, LAC, FFT scores and predicted scores, actual attainment grades, SEN and School Action, etc…. HE heritage and NS SEC HE heritage and NS SEC Area population profiles Area population profiles Economic trend and employment data Economic trend and employment data Masses of qualitative feedback, case studies etc. Masses of qualitative feedback, case studies etc.

7. How we use statistical data To distribute resources fairly To distribute resources fairly To define the priority target cohort To define the priority target cohort To assess progress in widening participation in the area To assess progress in widening participation in the area To identify issues and revise practice priorities To identify issues and revise practice priorities To inform partner strategies and grow understanding of HE participation issues To inform partner strategies and grow understanding of HE participation issues

8. Informing partner strategies What partners dont have: Higher Education Institutions: population participation data for their local area; comparative data on local school pupils; Local Authorities: HE participation data; comparative progression data for local institutions; deprivation cross-referencing.

9. Informing local strategies JARs – Joint Area Reviews for local authorities JARs – Joint Area Reviews for local authorities SEFs – Self Evaluation Frameworks for Schools SEFs – Self Evaluation Frameworks for Schools College reports College reports 14-19 strategies at LA and LSC levels 14-19 strategies at LA and LSC levels WPSAs and OFFA reports WPSAs and OFFA reports Aimhigher web-based partner data system

11. Local authorities: NI 106 To increase the proportion of young people from low income backgrounds progressing to HE. Measured by: the gap between the proportion of 15 year olds eligible for FSM and those not eligible for FSM progressing to HE at age 18.

12. Table 5: Proportions of students who were/were not in receipt of FSM aged 15 in 2001/02, who went to an HEI aged 18 in 2004/05 or aged 19 in 2005/06 Local AuthorityFSMNon-FSMAllGap Bolton15%33%31%18% Bury17%35%33%18% Manchester17%27%23%11% Oldham18%33%30%16% Rochdale16%28%25%12% Salford7%22%19%15% Stockport12%36%33%24% Tameside10%26%23%16% Trafford13%42%39%29% Wigan10%31%28%21% England14%33%30%19% Source: DIUS

13. Allocating resources Allocating resources National model 50% of funding for Aimhigher is allocated by need based on GCSE outcomes of maintained schools 50% of funding for Aimhigher is allocated by need based on GCSE outcomes of maintained schools 50% is allocated on need based on 15 year olds living in 40% most deprived by IMD 50% is allocated on need based on 15 year olds living in 40% most deprived by IMD Area model Three criteria, equally weighted: IMD IMD FSM (school population) FSM (school population) POLAR POLAR

14. Borough Allocations 08-09 Deprivation Indicator Participation IndicatorFSM Indicator Estimate of Y7-11 pupils in target IMD LSOAs Estimate of 15 YOs in POLAR Less than 27% Secondary pupils eligible for FSM £ Distribution 2008/09 Bolton10.8%7.8%8.5%9.0% Bury5.7%4.4%4.6%4.9% Manchester21.0%21.1%33.3%25.1% Oldham9.9%9.0%10.0%9.7% Rochdale10.1%9.7%9.1%9.7% Salford9.5%12.1%11.0%10.9% Stockport5.8%8.4%5.2%6.5% Tameside10.2%12.9%6.5%9.9% Trafford5.5%2.0%4.1%3.9% Wigan11.4%12.5%7.6%10.5% Total 100.0%

15. Inarguable priorities LAnameNamePupil_Count %_of_year_7 to 11_pupils_who_ live_in_IMD2007 target_areas FSM_ count%_FSM %_living outside_ LA OldhamGrange School80499%50663%0% OldhamThe Hathershaw College of Technology & Sport102099%41841%1% OldhamBreeze Hill School78596%35245%0% OldhamKaskenmoor School70996%29241%21% OldhamThe Radclyffe School134992%39529%14% OldhamSt Augustine of Canterbury RC High School78586%17823%2% OldhamSouth Chadderton School71885%15021%27% OldhamFailsworth School147171%24317%19% OldhamCounthill School107260%22521%0% OldhamRoyton and Crompton School117851%16314%2% OldhamOur Lady's RC High School95044%10111%6% OldhamThe Blue Coat CofE School110541%474%44% OldhamNorth Chadderton School134630%957%3% OldhamCrompton House CofE School100130%141%39% OldhamSaddleworth School129211%665%3%

16. A recipe for defining the Aimhigher target cohort 1. A basket of data including: Postcode to define IMD; FSM entitlement; SEN/school action; gender; FFT scores and predictors – this is the initial cohort group 2. Stir in: teacher recommendation on potential to achieve and to benefit from Aimhigher 3. Add a pinch of: considerations re friendship groups etc. 4. AND all Looked After Children irrespective of attainment profiles. Tracking the learners – local data collection in conjunction with LA data leads.

17. Assessing progress Annual statistical updates at local level Annual statistical updates at local level Compare cohort progress against whole school year group and against similar profile pupils not in the cohort – look for value added Compare cohort progress against whole school year group and against similar profile pupils not in the cohort – look for value added Longitudinal tracking Longitudinal tracking Case studies Case studies Regular reporting at local and area level Regular reporting at local and area level

18. Change in UCAS Applicants Aged 18-20 in 2007 Compared to 2002 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Salford Manchester Trafford Tameside Bolton Wigan Oldham Bury Stockport Rochdale England average Greater Manchester average Source: UCAS datasets

21. Dig deep - it could be gold UCAS acceptance rates at local FE colleges UCAS acceptance rates at local FE colleges Russell Group Applications by deprivation/domicile Russell Group Applications by deprivation/domicile Beneath the gap in participation by deprivation: the gender and ethnicity gaps Beneath the gap in participation by deprivation: the gender and ethnicity gaps

22. In groups: You are a local Aimhigher partnership, tasked to plan activities and interventions. You represent: a university and a local authority and a local school or college Look at the data and decide: How should we intervene? How should we intervene? When should we intervene? When should we intervene? Where (which institution or locality) is the priority? Where (which institution or locality) is the priority? What else do we want to know? What else do we want to know?

23. Russell Group Admissions Looked at ward detail and previous education institution Looked at ward detail and previous education institution Published partner report to raise awareness Published partner report to raise awareness Worked with University of Manchester to shift targeting of their outreach programmes towards Aimhigher priorities Worked with University of Manchester to shift targeting of their outreach programmes towards Aimhigher priorities Included presentations from Oxford, Cambridge and UoM in FE tutor staff development Included presentations from Oxford, Cambridge and UoM in FE tutor staff development Talked to G&T coordinators in local authorities Talked to G&T coordinators in local authorities

24. FEC Acceptance rates Discussed data locally with local authority coordinators Discussed data locally with local authority coordinators Met with college principals where acceptance rates were lowest – individually. Met with college principals where acceptance rates were lowest – individually. Produced foundation degree guides Produced foundation degree guides Work with college to run big induction event featuring HE options and involving local HEIs Work with college to run big induction event featuring HE options and involving local HEIs Series of staff development events for FE tutors Series of staff development events for FE tutors One FEC now includes HE progression in their performance review for tutors and continues to monitor HE progression by tutor group One FEC now includes HE progression in their performance review for tutors and continues to monitor HE progression by tutor group

25. Gender and ethnicity gaps Way to go yet! Special projects for boys Special projects for boys Amended summer school and Aimhigher cohort guidance to encourage participation of boys Amended summer school and Aimhigher cohort guidance to encourage participation of boys Specific projects with BME communities Specific projects with BME communities Focus on breaking down gendered career and subject options Focus on breaking down gendered career and subject options

26. Further information www.aimhighergreatermanchester.co.uk Joanne Moore: Research and Data Manager j.e.moore@open.ac.uk Jo Wiggans j.wiggans@open.ac.uk