2. Phil 101: Logic Fall 2013

3. Introduction: Today’s Class Mechanics of course and expectations – Syllabus Syllabus – Class website and message board Class website message board Introductory readings – Chapter 0: Introduction and comments about survey Chapter 0 Homework: Read A Prelude to Logic Ch 1 and Logical PossibilityA Prelude to Logic Logical Possibility

4. The Agenda Critical Reasoning (“Informal Logic”) – The real informal fallacies – A survey of some philosophical problems (this is a philosophy course! – Introduction to concepts that figure in the study of formal logic Symbolic Logic – Propositional Logic: translation, truth tables, truth trees and proofs – Introduction to predicate logic (if time permits): translation, equivalences, identity and definite descriptions

5. Behavioral Economics & the Real Fallacies Bounded Rationality: humans are not (1) fully informed, (2) strictly rational, (3) completely self-interested. People have two different thinking systems. People are subject to cognitive biases— systematic errors of perception and judgment. People are good at perceiving causation but very bad at statistical reasoning…as the results of our survey show.

6. Fall 2013 Logic Students Survey

7. Some Responses Sorry to who ever is reading this but I have no clue and I do not want to try and act like I do. Republicans have super kidneys that repel cancer. The fact that the states are Republican has nothing to do with it, it is just a coincedence (good!) This could be because they are more conservative, they eat locally grown foods, eliminating any type of poisoning by artificial foods grown by chemicals and shipped all around the world. Rural areas have less pollution output and Republicans typically lead more conservative personal lives which would decrease their likelyhood of using certain drugs. Although, meth abuse is very high in some rural areas so that explanation may be invalid.

8. Statistical Explanations Because there are not many people there in the first place, so there are only a few who get kidney cancer – Comment: we said incidence, i.e. percentage relative to population! It's a byproduct of inconsistent sample size. Population bias. Since the population of these counties is sparse, the likelihood of there being less than the normal amount of those with kidney cancer is high. The greater the population of each county, the more likely the percentage is closer to the actual percent of overall incidences of kidney cancer in the United States. Moral: One of our biases (systematic errors in reasoning) comes from our fixation on causal explanations so that we overlook statistical explanations…and there are many more biases…

9. A List of Cognitive Biases (Abridged!) Loss aversion – "the disutility of giving up an object is greater than the utility associated with acquiring it” Planning fallacy – the tendency to underestimate task-completion times, often caused by taking the “inside view” rather than comparing to a reference class in making predictions. Zero-risk bias – preference for reducing a small risk to zero over a greater reduction in a larger risk. Halo effect – the tendency for a person's positive or negative traits to "spill over" from one area of their personality to another in others' perceptions of them (see also physical attractiveness stereotype). Representativeness heuristic – the tendency to estimate the likelihood of an event by comparing it to an existing prototype we think of as typical.

10. The List continues… Anchoring– the tendency to rely too heavily, or "anchor," on a past reference or on one trait or piece of information when making decisions. Confirmation bias – the tendency to search for or interpret information or memories in a way that confirms one's preconceptions. [ Framing effect – drawing different conclusions from the same information, depending on how or by whom that information is presented. (includes default reasoning) Just-world hypothesis – the tendency for people to want to believe that the world is fundamentally just, causing them to rationalize an otherwise inexplicable injustice as deserved by the victim(s). Availability heuristic – the tendency to overestimate the likelihood of events with greater "availability" in memory, which can be influenced by how recent the memories are, or how unusual or emotionally charged they may be. Nudge

11. Anchoring

12. Confirmation Bias

13. Availability Error

14. Real World Consequences!

15. Paternalism? Liberty Limiting Principles The Harm Principle Legal Moralism Legal Paternalism

19. Libertarian Paternalism

20. Welcome to Philosophy!

21. Possibility At our next class meeting we’ll talk about possibility…