1. Measuring Socially and Economically Sustainable Rural Communities A policy based approach Pippa Gibson Defra

2. Overview Rural definitions – Definition – Classification Measuring Socially and Economically Sustainable Rural Communities – Background – Selecting indicators – Measuring success – Examples – Next steps Conclusions

3. How to define rural? Rural Definition developed in 2004 Start by dividing England into a grid of hectare square cells (100m x 100m) Every postal address grouped into hectare cell into which it falls Residential density is calculated for all cells for a series of radii around each cell Based on the residential density and the relationships between radii, the ‘underlying settlement classification’ is created

4. How to define rural? Settlements are defined by morphology and context Urban cut off is 10,000 population Within rural, there are three settlement types: town and fringe, villages, and hamlets and isolated dwellings. The context of each settlement is also taken into account. The most remote areas are defined as being in a “sparse” context.

5. How to define rural? The definition takes the form of: UrbanRural Town/ fringe VillageIsolated dwellings Town/ fringe VillageIsolated dwellings SparseLess sparseSparseLess sparse England

6. How to define rural? Can group by settlement type: UrbanRural Town/ fringe VillageIsolated dwellings Town/ fringe VillageIsolated dwellings SparseLess sparseSparseLess sparse England

7. How to define rural? Can group by settlement type: UrbanRural Town/ fringe VillageIsolated dwellings Town/ fringe VillageIsolated dwellings SparseLess sparseSparseLess sparse England

8. How to define rural? Can group by settlement type: UrbanRural Town/ fringe VillageIsolated dwellings Town/ fringe VillageIsolated dwellings SparseLess sparseSparseLess sparse England

9. How to define rural? Or by sparsity: UrbanRural Town/ fringe VillageIsolated dwellings Town/ fringe VillageIsolated dwellings SparseLess sparseSparseLess sparse England

10. How to define rural? Or by sparsity: UrbanRural Town/ fringe VillageIsolated dwellings Town/ fringe VillageIsolated dwellings SparseLess sparseSparseLess sparse England

12. How to define rural? This is very useful to examine differences between different types of rural settlement - doesn’t assume that all rural areas are the same Data need to be at a sufficiently small spatial scale to apply this definition Often data are published at a higher geographical level – so need classification to take account of this

13. Local Authority classification Data are often only published at local authority level (equivalent to NUTS4) – Disclosure – Coverage Using the Rural Definition as a base, we can classify local authorities on a six-point scale of rural to urban

14. Criteria behind the LA classification: Major Urban: districts with either 100,000 people or 50 percent of their population in an urban area with a population of more than 750,000; Large Urban: districts with either 50,000 people or 50 percent of their population in one of 17 urban areas with a population between 250,000 and 750,000; Other Urban: districts with less than 26 percent of their population in rural settlements and larger market towns; Significant Rural: districts with more than 26 percent of their population in rural settlements and larger market towns; Rural-50: districts with at least 50 percent but less than 80 percent of their population in rural settlements and larger market towns; Rural-80: districts with at least 80 percent of their population in rural settlements and larger market towns

15. Aggregating the LA classification

17. Measuring Socially and Economically Sustainable Rural Communities One of Defra's key objectives Measured in two parts: – The evidenced needs of rural people and communities are addressed through mainstream public policy and delivery – Economic growth is supported in rural areas with the lowest levels of performance

18. ‘Mainstreaming’ objective - theory Government targets policy in all areas, regardless of whether they are urban or rural Defra aims to monitor whether a range of Government policies are impacting in rural areas as much as in urban areas A range of policy areas are monitored: education, health, housing, crime, social capital and poverty

19. Economic objective This also looks at whether rural areas are at a disadvantage compared with England as a whole, but focus on economic indicators A variety of economic areas are monitored: earnings, employment, adult skills, business investment and enterprise.

20. Measuring these indicators Indicators were chosen not only for their relevance but also for their availability Data must ideally be available at a low spatial level to apply the Definition: – Census output areas (population ~300) – Super output areas (population ~1,500) – Wards (population ~5000) Only if this is not available, use local authority level data

21. Selection of indicators Within each sub-theme a range of measureable indicators is selected E.g. Health sub-theme measured by: – Life expectancy – Potential years of life lost from cancer, stroke, heart disease, suicide – Infant mortality Data on provision of social care not available so this indicator not selected

22. Measuring success Aim is NOT for rural areas to out-perform urban areas or the national average Rural areas should perform as well as the England average If they perform below average, the trend should suggest improvement

23. Measuring success: ‘traffic lights’ Where will the trajectory take rural areas? Above the norm Above norm (but within unacceptable timeframe) or parallel with norm Below the norm (but outside relevant timeframe) Below the norm In relation to the norm, rural areas are: AboveGREEN A/G EqualGREEN A/GA/R Below: within acceptable range GREENA/GA/R Below: unacceptable range A/GRED

24. Example results Number of entrants to higher education Data are available by ward, so can use the Rural Definition Aggregate number of entrants for each category Present as a rate per 1,000 18-20 year olds (because populations are very different in rural and urban areas)

25. Education Number of entrants to higher education

26. Housing affordability Ratio of earnings to house prices Data only available by local authority, so use LA classification Present as a population weighted average of earnings: house price ratio

27. Housing affordability Ratio of earnings to house prices

28. Economic growth Productivity Gross Value Added data available but not published at local authority level When aggregated to the LA classification we can publish the figures Advantage of having lower level data is that we can separate out the London authorities which tells a very different story

29. Economic growth Productivity

30. Economic growth Productivity

31. Next steps/future work Mainstreaming indicators: research programme – Reasons for differences? – Averages mask localised disadvantage? – Share results with lead Department “Lowest performing” rural areas? – Which areas are performing as well as they can? – Which areas could perform better?

32. Conclusions No single indicator can measure ‘socially and economically sustainable rural communities’ Nor can a set of indicators fully reflect every aspect of rural life BUT a range of Government priorities can be monitored using available data and robust rural definition/classifications Sound evidence base enables Government to focus on areas with greatest indication of need

33. Thank you