1. WAR Bradford VTS Group A presentation 9th January 2007

2. Program 2 pmIntroduction 2.15 pmWhat is War? 2.45 pmImages of War and Impact on Health 3.15 pmBreak 3.30 pmgroup case discussion 4.15 pmwrap up & evaluation

3. Aims & Objectives What kind of wars are there? What is war? Why wars? Where is war at the moment? Is the world getting a better place?

4. What kind of wars are there? can be divided into cause and environment Cause Extortionate Agressive Colonial National liberation Religious Dynastic Trade Revolutionary Guerrilla Civil Environment Arctic warfare Desert warfare Jungle warfare Mobile warfare Naval warfare Sub-aquatic warfare Mountain warfare Urban warfare Air warfare Space warfare Electronic warfare Border warfare Mine warfare

5. What is war? War A state of open, armed, often prolonged conflict carried on between nations, states, or parties, the period of such conflict and the techniques and procedures of war. (Encyclopedia britannica) Armed conflict An armed conflict is a contested incompatibility which concerns government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in at least 25 battle-related deaths. (Armed Conflict 1989–2000, Journal of Peace Research 38(5): 629–644)

6. Unlimited amount of theories trying to explain this Whatever you think, war seems to be a successful way of dealing with conflict Ask one of these guys... Why war?

8. Historical theories A. J. P. Taylor Wars are like traffic accidents There are some conditions and situations that make them more likely, but there can be no system for predicting where and when each one will occur.

9. Psychological theories John Bowlby Human beings, especially men, are inherently violent. While this violence is repressed in normal society, it needs the occasional outlet provided by war. Sigmund Freud Peace does not really exist. Periods that are seen as peaceful are actually periods of preparation for a later war or when war is suppressed by a state of great power, such as the Pax Britannica.

10. Psychological theories Konrad Lorenz War as an extension of animal behaviour, such as territoriality and competition. However, while war has a natural cause, the development of technology has accelerated human destructiveness to a level that is irrational and damaging to the species. We have similar instincts to that of a chimpanzee but overwhelmingly more power. George Orwell The state of constant war is being used as one of many ways to distract people. War inspires fear and hate among the people of a nation, and gives them a "legitimate" enemy upon whom they can focus this fear and hate. Thus the people are prevented from seeing that their true enemy is in fact their own repressive government. By this theory war is another opiate of the masses" by which a state controls its people and prevents revolution.

11. Anthropological theories Ashley Montagu There are no links between various forms of violence. Almost all wars are begun not by popular pressure but by the whims of leaders. These leaders also work to maintain a system of ideological justifications for war.

12. Sociological theories Hans-Ulrich Wehler War as the product of domestic conditions, with only the target of aggression being determined by international realities. Carl von Clausewitz Decisions of statesmen and the geopolitical situation that leads to war.

13. Demographic therories Thomas Malthus Wars are caused by expanding populations and limited resources. Populations always increase until they are limited by war, disease, or famine.

14. Demographic theories Jack Goldstone Youth bulge – dominates US foreign policy. Gunnar Heinsohn Proposed the theory in its most generalized form, a youth bulge occurs when 30 to 40 percent of the males of a nation belong to the "fighting age" cohorts from 15 to 29 years of age. It will follow periods with average birth rates as high as 4-8 children per woman with a 15-29 year delay. If an average birth rate of 2,1 represents a situation of in which the son will replace the father, the daughter the mother, 4-8 children per mother imply 2-4 sons. Consequently, one father has to leave not 1, but 2 to 4 social positions to give all his sons a perspective for life, which is usually hard to achieve. Since respectable positions cannot be increased at the same speed as food, textbooks and vaccines, many "angry young men" find themselves in a situation that tends to escalate their adolescent anger into violence.

15. Demographic theories These young man are: (1) demographically superfluous, (2) might be out of work or stuck in a mean job, and (3) often have no access to a legal sex life before a career can earn them enough to provide for a family. The combination of these stress factors according to Heinsohn usually heads for six different exits: (1) Emigration ("non violent colonization") (2) Violent Crime (3) Rebellion or putsch (4) Civil war and/or revolution (5) Genocide (to take over the positions of the slaughtered) (6) Conquest (violent colonization, frequently including genocide abroad). Religions and ideologies are seen as secondary factors that are being used to legitimate violence, but will not lead to violence by itself if no youth bulge is present. Consequently, youth bulge theorists see both past "Christianist" european colonialism / imperialism and today´s "Islamist" civil unrest / terrorism as results of high birth rates producing youth bulges. Youth Bulge theory has been subjected to statistical analysis by the World Bank. It has been criticized for promoting racial, gender and age discrimination.

16. Rationalist theories Geoffrey Blainey Both sides to a potential war are rational, which is to say that each side wants to get the best possible outcome for itself for the least possible loss of life and property to its own side.

17. Economic theories War can be seen as an outgrowth of economic competition in a chaotic and competitive international system. In this view wars begin as a pursuit of new markets, of natural resources, and of wealth.

18. Marxist theories War grows out of the class war. It sees wars as imperial ventures to enhance the power of the ruling class and divide the proletariat of the world by pitting them against each other for contrived ideals such as nationalism or religion. Wars are a natural outgrowth of the free market and class system, and will not disappear until a world revolution occurs.

19. Political science theories Immanuel Kant Power transition theory - distributes the world into a hierarchy and explains major wars as part of a cycle of hegemons being destabilized by a great power which does not suppor the hegemons control. Democratic peace theory theory and related empirical research in international relations, political science, and philosophy which holds that democracies never or almost never go to war with one another.

20. Democratic states

21. Any thoughts?

22. Refugees – some numbers UNHCR: dropping numbers of refugees worldwide. 1993: 17.8 million, 2006: 8.4 million ORIGIN OF MAJOR REFUGEE POPULATIONS – 1 JAN 2006 [Ten largest groups] OriginMain Countries of AsylumTotal 1 AfghanistanPakistan / Iran / Germany / Netherlands / UK1,908,100 2 SudanChad / Uganda / Kenya / Ethiopia / Central African Rep.693,300 BurundiTanzania / DR Congo / Rwanda / South Africa / Zambia438,700 DR CongoTanzania / Zambia / Congo / Rwanda / Uganda430,600 SomaliaKenya / Yemen / UK / USA / Ethiopia394,800 Viet NamChina / Germany / USA / France / Switzerland358,200 PalestiniansSaudi Arabia / Egypt / Iraq / Libya / Algeria349,700 3 IraqIran / Germany / Netherlands / Syria / UK262,100 AzerbaijanArmenia / Germany / USA / Netherlands / France233,700 LiberiaSierra Leone / Guinea / Côte d'Ivoire / Ghana / USA231,100

23. Refugees – some more numbers MAJOR REFUGEE ARRIVALS DURING 2005 [Ten largest movements] OriginMain Countries of AsylumTotal TogoBenin / Ghana39,100 SudanChad / Uganda34,500 DR CongoUganda / Rwanda / Burundi15,600 SomaliaYemen13,600 Central African Rep.Chad11,500 IraqSyria10,500 BurundiRwanda / Tanzania / Uganda6,100 BhutanNepal1,500 RwandaUganda1,500 Russian FederationAzerbaijan500 UNHCR 2006

24. Asylum seekers – some numbers UNHCR 2006 NEW ASYLUM APPLICATIONS SUBMITTED IN SELECTED INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIES 1 [in 2005] Country of AsylumAsylum applicationsMain Countries of Origin France49,700Haiti / Serbia & Montenegro / Turkey / Russian Fed. / DR Congo United States 2 39,200China / Haiti / Colombia / El Salvador / Mexico United Kingdom30,500Iran / Pakistan / Somalia / Eritrea / Afghanistan Germany28,900Serbia & Montenegro / Turkey / Iraq / Russian Fed. / Viet Nam Austria22,500Serbia & Montenegro / Russian Fed. / India / Moldova / Turkey Canada20,800Mexico / China / Colombia / Sri Lanka / India Sweden17,500Serbia & Montenegro / Iraq / Russian Fed. / Stateless people / Bulgaria Belgium16,000Russian Fed. / DR Congo / Serbia & Montenegro / Iraq / Slovakia Netherlands12,300Iraq / Somalia / Afghanistan / Iran / Burundi Switzerland10,100Serbia & Montenegro / Turkey / Somalia / Iraq / Bulgaria

25. Long term picture Asylum applications in 36 industrialised countries

26. Asylum applicants 2000 - 2004

27. Asylum applicants 2001 - 2004

28. Countries of Origin 2003 - 2004

29. Countries of Origin (UK) 2003 - 2004

30. Where is war?

31. Types of conflict

32. War or Conflict

33. Types of Conflicts

34. Parties

35. Intesity

36. Secondary Support

37. Conflict zones

38. Democratic states

39. Incompatibility

40. Is the world getting better or worse? Depends whom you ask Uppsala says yes Heidelberg Institute for International Conflict Research says no Center for Strategic & International Studies (MIT) says don´t know UNHCR hopes it gets better. Center for Security Studies (CSS), ETH Zurich, pretends to know but will not tell you if you do not pay...... so I guess you have to make up your own mind.