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Future Scenarios for the Heads of the Valleys Kevin Morgan School of City and Regional Planning Cardiff University.

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Presentation on theme: "Future Scenarios for the Heads of the Valleys Kevin Morgan School of City and Regional Planning Cardiff University."— Presentation transcript:

1 Future Scenarios for the Heads of the Valleys Kevin Morgan School of City and Regional Planning Cardiff University

2 Overview Basic socio-economic trends Threats and opportunities Strategies: old v new Scenarios: awful v hopeful

3 Basic socio-economic trends Socio-economic trends show Valleys in relative decline Valleys need to be conceived as part of a City- Region, but not a CITY-region The trends suggest the following: The city has out-performed the Valleys The city needs the Valleys and vice versa The city cannot save the Valleys The city cannot thrive if the Valleys decline

4 Total employment change for UK city-regions UK City19982006Change% Change Cardiff150,600190,70040,10026.6 Newcastle-upon-Tyne149,000180,50031,50021.1 Manchester267,900306,10038,20014.3 Leeds365,900417,30051,40014.0 Glasgow City347,200392,80045,60013.1 Liverpool202,200226,40024,20012.0 Sheffield224,000248,60024,60011.0 Edinburgh, City of278,100306,00027,90010.0 Greater London3,764,1003,996,600232,5006.2 Birmingham469,200491,80022,6004.8 Bristol220,500229,6009,1004.1 Nottingham185,500182,400-3,100-1.7

5 Total employment change for UK city-regions UK City Region Geography19982006Change% Change Bristol City Region451,800512,70060,90013.5 Newcastle City Region441,300499,40058,10013.2 Cardiff City Region534,300595,90061,60011.5 Glasgow City Region743,900826,30082,40011.1 Edinburgh City Region552,400607,80055,40010.0 Sheffield City Region652,400710,80058,4009.0 Leeds City Region1,176,3001,274,30098,0008.3 Manchester City Region1,360,3001,466,300106,0007.8 Liverpool City Region551,100590,30039,2007.1 Greater London3,764,1003,996,600232,5006.2 Birmingham City Region1,871,1001,945,40074,3004.0 Nottingham City Region323,100332,4009,3002.9

6 Regional hinterland share of city- region employment growth City Region Hinterland Hinterland Employment Growth % Share of Total Employment Change Nottingham City Region Hinterland12,400100.0 Bristol City Region Hinterland51,80085.1 Birmingham City Region Hinterland51,70069.6 Manchester City Region Hinterland67,80064.0 Sheffield City Region Hinterland33,80057.9 Edinburgh City Region Hinterland27,50049.6 Leeds City Region Hinterland46,60047.6 Newcastle City Region Hinterland26,60045.8 Glasgow City Region Hinterland36,80044.7 Liverpool City Region Hinterland15,00038.3 Cardiff City Region Hinterland21,50034.9

7 Population change for selected areas (%) 1991-20012001 - 20051991 - 2005 Heads of the Valleys-6.9-7.9 Hearts & Mouths of the Valleys3.41.85.3 City, Coast & Rural3.41.85.3 South East Wales Total0.71.21.9 Wales1.31.52.8 United Kingdom2.91.94.9

8 Commuting flows into Cardiff

9 Commuting flows out of Cardiff

10 Hidden unemployment? Parliamentary Constituency Incapacity Benefit claimants (May 2007) 000s % of working Age population Rank Hi/Lo Glasgow North East10.1420%1 Liverpool Riverside9.6720%2 Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney8.2819%3 Rhondda8.3619%4 Cynon Valley6.6819%5 Manchester Blackley8.6819%6 Easington8.7518%7 Manchester Central9.6518%8 Blaenau Gwent7.1518%9 Aberavon6.7018%10

11 Threats and opportunities Economic threats include: high levels of economic inactivity very poor skill sets very poor connectivity very poor housing choice Social/cultural threats include: long term limiting illness culture of low aspirations getting out/getting on

12 Opportunities Major opportunities include: low cost housing close to city/nature outstanding natural environment surprisingly resilient stock of social capital lack of civil, political & religious strife

13 Strategies: Old problems Absurd polarisation of state/market – public versus private conflict very acute in Wales Confusion of means/ends – partnership (a means to an end) has been elevated into an end in itself Collective failure – the key institutions in Wales (central and local government, business, universities etc) have failed the Valleys Devolution dividends – limited to date by cosy and undemanding partnership between WAG and local government (symbolised by saga of performance improvement grant, paid when performance was bad)

14 Strategies: New opportunities More innovative strategies needed and WHQS will test our capacity to innovate Registered Social Landlords – these are local regeneration companies in disguise Success will depend upon: local management skills deploying the power of purchase crafting new supply chains embedding the local pound to plug the leaky bucket

15 Scenario 1: The awful future Heads of the Valleys Population Projection 2005 – 2025 MaleFemaleTotalChange% Change Total Projection Change-19,980-17,183-37,163--11.4

16 Scenario 1: Age group projections

17 Scenario 2: The hopeful future Heads of the Valleys Population Projection 2005 – 2025 MaleFemaleTotalChange% Change Total Projection Change-5,913-5,886-11,799 --3.61%

18 Scenarios: awful v hopeful


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