Presentation on theme: "Energy security and climate change: Recipient of James Watt Medal"— Presentation transcript:
1Energy security and climate change: Recipient of James Watt Medal CNS School 12th October 2007Energy security and climate change:the hard choices facing us.Recipient of James Watt Medal5th October 2007Keith Tovey (杜伟贤) M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnvHSBC Director of Low Carbon Innovation: Energy Science Director:School of Environmental Sciences, University of East AngliaCRed
4Is Global Warming man made? actual predicted Prediction: Natural only 1.00.50.0-0.5Temperature Rise (oC)Is Global Warming man made?actualpredictedPrediction: Natural onlygood match until 19601.00.50.0-0.5Temperature Rise (oC)actualpredictedPrediction: Anthropogenic onlyNot a good match between 1920 and 19701.00.50.0-0.5Temperature Rise (oC)actualPredictions include:Greenhouse Gas emissionsSulphates and ozoneSolar and volcanic activitypredictedPrediction: Natural and AnthropogenicGenerally a good matchSource: Hadley Centre, The Met.Office
5Increasing Occurrence of Flood Increasing Occurrence of Drought Change in precipitationSource: Tim Osborne, CRUIncrease in storminess since 1970Heavy winter rainfall over the UK has increased by 50%Runs of wet days have increasedMore heavy rain eventsTotal winter precipitationTotal summer precipitation
6Norwich City would be playing water polo! Consequence of ~ 1m riseConsequence of ~ 6m riseNorwichIf we don’t do anything about it now, what would happen in the future is Norwich could be under water due to the large sea level rises.To avoid working under water at UEA in a few hundreds of years, we have to quickly develop effective measures to reduce CO2 emission. One of such measures is to use carbon-free or clean fuels. Hydrogen is regarded as a clean energy carrier of the future, particularly to replace petrol for mobile application.(Source: Prof. Bill McGuire, University College London)Norwich City would be playing water polo!
7Climate Change Arctic meltdown 1979 - 2003 Summer ice coverage of Arctic Polar RegionNasa satellite imagery2003197920% reduction in 24 yearsSource: Nasa
8Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods Nuclear New Build assumes one new station is completed each year after 2018.
9Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
10Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Area required to supply 5% of UK electricity needs ~ 300 sq kmBut energy needed to make PV takes up to 8 years to pay back in UK.
11Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Transport Fuels:Biodiesel?Bioethanol?Compressed gas frommethane from waste.But Land Area required is very large - the area of Norfolk and Suffolk would be needed to generated just over 5% of UK electricity needs.
12Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
13Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
14Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Output GWh per annumSufficient for house in OrkneySave tonnes of CO2
15Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
16Solar Energy - The BroadSol Project Solar Collectors installed 27th January 2004Annual Solar Gain 910 kWh
17House in Lerwick, Shetland Isles with Solar Panels It is all very well for South East, but what about the North?House on Westray, Orkney exploiting passive solar energy from end of FebruaryHouse in Lerwick, Shetland Isles with Solar Panels- less than 15,000 people live north of this in UK!
18Our Choices: They are difficult: Energy Security There is a looming capacity shortfallEven with a full deployment of renewables.A 10% reduction in demand per house will see a rise of 7% in total demand- Increased population decreased household sizeOpted Out Coal: Stations can only run for hours more and must close by 2015New Nuclear assumes completing 1 new nuclear station each year beyond 2018New Coal assumes completing 1 new coal station each year beyond 2018
19Our Choices: They are difficult Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind and biomass. Photovoltaics, tidal, wave are not options for next 20 years.If our answer is NODo we want to see a renewal of nuclear powerAre we happy with this and the other attendant risks?If our answer is NODo we want to return to using coal?then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantlyunless we can develop carbon sequestration and apply it to ALL ourCOAL fired power stations within 10 years - unlikely.If our answer to coal is NODo we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation? >>>>>>
20Our Choices: They are difficult If our answer is YESBy 2020we will be dependent on around 70% of our heating and electricity from GASimported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, AlgeriaAre we happy with this prospect? >>>>>>If not:We need even more substantial cuts in energy use.Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global Warming by using coal? - the North Norfolk Coal Field? –Aylsham Colliery, North Walsham Pit?Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables?Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS option route and all the attendant Security issues that raises.
21Historic and Future Demand for Electricity Business as usualEnergy Efficient Future ?Number of households will rise by 17.5% by 2025 and consumption per household must fall by this amount just to remain static
22Electricity Options for the Future Energy Efficiency – consumption capped at 420 TWh by 2010But 68% growth in gas demand(compared to 2002)Business as Usual257% increase in gas consumption( compared to 2002)The Gas ScenarioAssumes all new non-renewable generation is from gas.Replacements for ageing plantAdditions to deal with demand changesAssumes 10.4% renewables by 201025% renewables by 2025
23Alternative Electricity Options for the Future 25% Renewables by 202520000 MW Wind16000 MW Other Renewables inc. Tidal, hydro, biomass etc.Energy Efficiency ScenarioOther OptionsSome New Nuclear needed by 2025 if CO2 levels are to fall significantly and excessive gas demand is to be avoidedBusiness as Usual ScenarioNew Nuclear is required even to reduce back to 1990 levels
24In groups for next 5 minutes discuss the following Decision Time for youIn groups for next 5 minutes discuss the followingHow should we generate electricity in the period up to 2030?Beyond 2030?How important is Energy Security?What is important to ensure Energy Security?What are your reactions to wind turbines?
26Wind Turbines are Incredibly Inefficient Efficiency:the ratio of the USEFUL work to the total energy available (or expended)Oxford English DictionaryModern Wind Turbines convert 40 – 42%% of available energy in the windModern Coal Fired Power Stations achieve 38%Sizewell B achieves 32%A car engine achieve % at bestCompared to many other energy devices, Wind Turbines are Very Efficient
27Is Efficiency being confused with Capacity Factor? The Capacity Factor is a measure of how much use is made of an appliance compared to the amount that could be achieved at rated output over a year.Wind Turbines have a Capacity Factor of 22% for first generation turbines in the East to 30%+ for the latest generation machines. Capacity factors are higher in the West and as much as 40% or more in places in Scotland. Even in East Anglia, capacity factors of 50% are achieved in some months.A capacity factor of 30% does not mean it is only working for 30% of the time. It means that it could be working at 30% of output for 100% of the time, 100% of output for 30% of time, or any combination between. The fact the turbine is working does not mean that it is at its rated output.Large coal and nuclear stations are off line for up to 50 days at a time – loosing equivalent output of turbines.A car driven miles has a capacity factor about 4%.A washing machine used 5 times a week has a capacity factor of 3%.
28Some Myths about Wind Energy What happens when the wind does not blow?.Large Coal /Nuclear Stations trip/ have failures and these cause a loss of power within a matter of minutes.In terms of short term variations wind is more reliable.Wind Turbines kill birds.Evidence suggesta that a few birds are killed typically 3 per installed MW per year except in a few locations. In many cases it is much lessOldest wind farm in UK on Burgar Hill has an RSPB reserve right next to it.Currently UK has around 1700 MW wind turbines installed perhaps birds killed a yearEstimates of 1 million killed each year by vehicles
29How many people know what 9 tonnes of CO2 looks like? On average each person in UK causes the emission of 9 tonnes of CO2 each year.How many people know what 9 tonnes of CO2 looks like?5 hot air balloons per person per year.Around 4 million in the Diocese of Norwich.In the developing world, the average is under 1 balloon per personIs this Fair?"Nobody made a greater mistake than he who did nothing because he thought he could do only a little."Edmund Burke (1727 – 1797)
30Raising Awareness 1.6 miles A tumble dryer uses 4 times as much energy as a washing machine. Using it 5 times a week will cost over £100 a year just for this appliance alone and emit over half a tonne of CO2.10 gms of carbon dioxide has an equivalent volume of 1 party balloon.A Mobile Phone charger: up to 20 kWh per year~ 1000 balloons each year kg CO2At Gao’an No 1 Primary School in Xuhui District, ShanghaiStandby on electrical appliances60+ kWh a year balloons.Filling up with petrol (~£38 for a full tank – 40 litres)kg of CO (5% of one hot air balloon)How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g cc Toyota Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old persons room for 1 hour?1.6 miles
31Saving Energy – A Practical Guide Ways to Reduce Your Carbon Footprint Micro CHPHeat PumpsMicro Wind
32The Behavioural Dimension Household size has little impact on electricity consumption.Consumption varies by up to a factor of 9 for any given household size.Allowing for Income still shows a range of 6 or more.Education/Awareness is important
33Driver behaviour trials at Banham Poultry TransportCar: 5 door Toyota YarisReal performance is best at ~ 50 mph. Saves up to 15% in fuel consumption cf 70 mph.Driver behaviour trials at Banham PoultryDriver behaviour affects performanceDriver 2 uses 13.8% more fuel
34Historic Trends: Freight Transport on Roads Distance each tonne has travelled has increased by:223% since 196020% since 1990Is this increase in movement of freight conducive to optimum economic growth, energy security, and carbon reduction?
35Electricity Statistics: Each house in Norwich consumes, 3727 kWh per year.Broadland kWh Breckland kWhNorth Norfolk kWh South Norfolk kWhKings Lynn and kWh Great kWhWest Norfolk YarmouthA wind farm the size of Scroby Sands can supply twice domestic demand of Norwich or 66% on average.(or 22% of total demand)Saves ~ to tonnes of carbon dioxide a year or hot air balloons each year.The alternatives:Persuade motorists never to drive the car againOr motorists to drive 1000 miles less each year.Widespread deployment of small scale renewables, and energy conservation.
36Involve the local Community The residents on the island of Burray (Orkney) campaigned for a wind turbine.On average they are more than self-sufficient in electricity needs and indeed are a net exporter of electricity.Many of the Islanders bought shares in the project and are now reaping the reward.Orkney is hoping to be a zero net emitter of carbon dioxide by 2015.
37Involve the local Community Even better things are happening on the Island of Westray.The Parish Kirk, and Community Centre are heated by heat Pumps partly powered by Wind TurbinesWaste cooking oil from other islands is processed into biodiesel for farm and other vehicles.Ethanol used in process is obtained from fermentation of harvested sea weed
38Hard Choices What can we as individuals do? What can we do collectively as a Community?Visit the CRed WEB SiteSign a pledge tocombat global warminghelp secure a sustainable environment for our childrenhelp reduce the adverse impacts of Global Warminghelp secure energy supplies for the futuresaving energyAdopting technical solutionsPromoting AwarenessPromoting appropriate renewable energy
39In groups for next 5 minutes discuss the following Decision Time for youIn groups for next 5 minutes discuss the followingWhat could you pledge to do at home?What could CNS Pledge to do?
40Conclusions Global Warming will affect us all - in next few decades Energy Security will become increasingly important. Inaction over making difficult decisions now will make Energy Insecurity more likely in future.Move towards energy conservation and LOCAL generation of energy and small changes to behaviour.It is as much about the individual’s response to use of energy as any technical measures the Government may take.Wind (and possibly biomass) are the only real alternatives for renewable generation in next 5 – 10 years.Otherwise Nuclear???Even if we are not convinced about Global Warming – Energy Security issues will shortly start to affect us.
41Are you up to the Challenge?: Will you make a pledge? ConclusionsNeed to act now otherwise we might have to make choice of whether we drive 1.6 miles or heat an old person’s roomWEBSITE Cred-uk.org/This presentation will be available from tomorrow at above WEB Site: follow Academic LinksAre you up to the Challenge?: Will you make a pledge?"If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading."Lao Tzu ( BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher
42Animation Courtesy of Rob Hannington The averagefamily carreleases10 gramsof CO2every 50mAnimation Courtesy of Rob Hannington
45Latest Temperature Data from GISS 10/09/2007 These represent temperatures for US only
46Wind Turbines are Incredibly Inefficient Efficiency:the ratio of the USEFUL work to the total energy available (or expended)Oxford English DictionaryModern Wind Turbines convert 40 – 42%% of available energy in the windModern Coal Fired Power Stations achieve 38%Sizewell B achieves 32%A car engine achieve % at bestCompared to many other energy devices, Wind Turbines are Very Efficient
47Is Efficiency being confused with Capacity Factor? The Capacity Factor is a measure of how much use is made of an appliance compared to the amount that could be achieved at rated output over a year.Wind Turbines have a Capacity Factor of 22% for first generation turbines in the East to 30%+ for the latest generation machines. Capacity factors are higher in the West and as much as 40% or more in places in Scotland. Even in East Anglia, capacity factors of 50% are achieved in some months.A capacity factor of 30% does not mean it is only working for 30% of the time. It means that it could be working at 30% of output for 100% of the time, 100% of output for 30% of time, or any combination between. The fact the turbine is working does not mean that it is at its rated output.Large coal and nuclear stations are off line for up to 50 days at a time – loosing equivalent output of turbines.A car driven miles has a capacity factor about 4%.A washing machine used 5 times a week has a capacity factor of 3%.